AS drama-fuelled and metaphor-charged locations go for a sporting spectacular, Rome takes some beating. The Coliseum! The Vatican City! Food! Wine! La dolce vita!

Back when the home team won the 2018 Ryder Cup in Paris the notion of swapping one great European city for another as a battleground seemed absolutely perfect. Where once British aristocrats had taken a Grand Tour of the continent’s great sites, now Europe’s golfers were taking that little golf trophy on a journey of celebration. That result five years ago was a sixth-straight triumph for Europe on home soil and confidence was high that a Roman candle would be lit to mark seven in a row.

And then Whistling Straits happened. Not immediately, for it was delayed by a year because of Covid-19 which proved to be a stay of execution of sorts. That match, on the coastline of Lake Wisconsin, was a chastening experience. True, Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia reminded everyone of the significance of Spanish combinations with a stellar performance, but they stood alone. The other veterans – Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Paul Casey – amassed a mere two points from 10 matches, a sign that it has been a Ryder Cup too far for the golden generation that had fired Europe’s long-standing success.

When an American team full of of friendships groups, big hitters, hot putters and mostly-crisp birth certificates celebrated its emphatic 19-9 defeat of the visitors there were many who saw this as a changing of the guard: a European generation set for retirement, an American one ready for domination of the Cup for the foreseeable future.

It didn’t really help when Europe’s captain jumped ship. Henrik Stenson, perhaps recognising the enormity of his task, joined LIV. The old world continent, it seemed, was now not only under-powered but rudderless.

And yet ever since Europe’s qualification period started last September the gap between the two teams has narrowed. LIV itself was one factor. Europe’s stalwarts were not alone in joining the rebels, American stars did too and Europe got the better end of the deal. Maybe only Sergio Garcia would have made this European team (and that is a big maybe), but the US has lost Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed from its 2021 line-up, only keeping Brooks Koepka.

This year’s major championships have also helped Europe’s cause. Victories for the unheralded Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman have vaulted them into captain Zach Johnson’s team and while those very successes indicate their quality, there’s no doubt they provide a less frightening prospect that would Johnson and Reed in full flight.

Late in the qualification period Europe headed into the mountains – to the European Masters in the Swiss Alps – and got a thin-air boost to the blood system in the shape of Ludvig Aberg, the thrilling Swedish prospect who won that event and with it more or less demanded a wildcard. Had he finished top 10 that week, and then received a captain’s pick, the buzz would have had a quizzical element to it. The question remains “What can he do?” but it comes with eyes alive at the possibilities rather than narrowed in fear that his chance has come too early. Europe has lost a Swedish captain and gained a Swedish superstar.

Put simply, Europe is stronger than it was Wisconsin while the Americans are weaker. Throw in the reality that it is not only Europe that thrives on this side of the Atlantic but all home teams that hold an advantage and this match is closer than we would ever have expected two years ago (only two of the last 12 matches have been won by the visitors and one of those is known as ‘The Miracle of Medinah’ which rather highlights the enormity of the task).

And what of Stenson’s replacement? Well, there is something about him, and his quest, that feels very familiar.

Luke Donald is an Englishman with short-cut fair hair. His task sets him against difficult opposition in an iconic Italian city. He must draw together a diverse group of skilled individuals. He must plot and plan, scheme and strategise, concoct and conspire.

“We are about to do a job, err, in Italy,” Donald might have said at a recent team get-together. “It’s a very difficult job and the only way to get through it is we all work together as a team. And that means you do everything I say.”

For Luke Donald, read Charlie Croker and let’s hope that Tyrrell Hatton doesn’t blow the bloody doors off.

To win – Europe at evens

Keep it simple. Both teams have strengths and potential flaws. Ultimately they are close – very close. Stick with recent history: home teams perform strongly, Europe even more so. Donald can complete his Italian Job.

European top points scorer – Tommy Fleetwood at 6/1

Two years ago the Englishman was in poor form ahead of the Ryder Cup and reaped just two halves from his three matches. But he won four of five points in Paris and three of four in January’s Hero Cup, and he is in much better form right now. Donald trusted Fleetwood to captain GB&I in that Hero Cup. He thrived and he will be expected to provide on-the-course leadership again in Rome. He can provide it on a course he has finished second on.

United States top points scorer – Patrick Cantlay at 5/1

The US team has two long-standing and high-quality partnerships in Presidents and Ryder Cups in Justin Thomas & Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay. The former pair might prove the doubters wrong by maintaining their high standards but they might also struggle with the tough test from the tee which host course Marco Simone provides. It will suit Schauffele and Cantlay, and the latter earns the nod.

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