Wednesday’s Group 1 races
Prince of Wales’s Stakes
In 2000, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes was elevated to Group 2 status while at the same time the conditions of the race changed opening it up to older horses, as three-year-olds were no longer allowed to contest.
Since 2000, the race has proved a haven for fancied runners, with just one horse returning successful at odds bigger than 8/1.
It hasn’t been straight forward for favourites though, as five recent odds-on shots have all been beaten, including So You Think, Treve, Cracksman and Bay Bridge twelve months ago.
An interesting stat, is that 6 of the last 19 winners were beaten in the race the season before – and this is the situation with Bay Bridge this year as the Sir Michael Stoute horse finished second twelve months ago.
18 of the last 26 winners of the race had won their last start prior to this race with the best trials being the Prix Ganay and the Tattersalls Gold Cup in recent years.
Last year’s Irish Champion Stakes hero Luxembourg, who then went onto finish 7th in the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe, took this year’s Tattersalls Gold Cup beating Bay Bridge in the process.
2021 Epsom Derby winner Adayar has been lightly raced since then having only seen the racecourse six times and it is sure he has been kept in training as a 5-year-old to add more value to him as a stallion – something he would certainly achieve if he could win an all aged 10-furlong Group 1. He won the Group 3 Sir Gordon Richards Stakes fairly easily on his seasonal debut, but there must be at least a slight concern for connections that the firm ground could be against him here. He has though been very well backed in Unibet’s ante post market – from 7/2 into half those odds in the last two weeks.
Thursday’s Group 1 races
Ascot Gold Cup
Ascot’s Gold Cup is one of the most iconic races in the English racing calendar. The Group 1 race is open to horses aged four years or older and is run over the marathon trip of 2 miles 4 furlongs.
It’s been a race in which to side with the favourites, or at least those towards the front end of the betting market, in recent years as 16 of the last 17 winners have been no bigger than 7/1.
The Irish have won 9 of the last 17 Gold Cups – with trainer Aidan O’Brien having won 8 of those.
Those horses who had previously won the Queen’s Vase at the Royal Meeting do well – three Queen’s Vase winners have gone onto win this race since 2012. This year Eldar Eldarov aims to continue this trend.
Roger Varian’s improving four-year-old followed up his Queen’s Vase victory by winning the St Leger and made a pleasing introduction this season when 2nd over an inadequate 14 furlongs in the Yorkshire Cup giving weight away.
Coltrane won the Doncaster Cup and Sagaro Stakes (over course) and is one of just a very few in the field who has won over such an extreme test of stamina as the Gold Cup having won the Ascot Stakes at last year’s Royal meeting. His Ascot form is 211 and according to his ratings, is still improving.
Aidan O’Brien’s Emily Dickinson will try to become the first mare to win the race since Estimate in 2021. Mares have a poor record in the race though; prior to Estimate you have to go back to Indian Queen in 1991 for a previous female winner.
Friday’s Group 1 races
Commonwealth Cup
This race is a relatively new one to the Royal Ascot rostrum having only been run since 2015. It is for three-year-olds only over 6 furlongs.
In this time the race has been won on six occasions by horses rated between 114 to 119 while it has also been the next aim of horses that didn’t stay the mile in the 2000 Guineas.
Some exceptional sprinters have won this race; the very first race in 2015 saw Muhaarar beat Limato while in 2017 Caravaggio beat Harry Point and Blue Point.
Little Big Bear fits two of most important trends for this race in that he didn’t seem to stay the mile in the 2000 Guineas, and is rated highly – was already 124 as Champion 2-year-old last season. He has also won over the course.
Coronation Stakes
Traditionally a race which brings together those who have run (and won) European 1,000 Guineas, notably the English and Irish versions, in the same way Tuesday’s St James Palace stakes does for the colts.
English Guineas contestants have the advantage over their Irish counterparts in recent years winning 11 of the last 20 Coronation Stakes – of those 11, 8 had finished in the first six at Newmarket.
The Irish 1000 Guineas winners though do well here winning 9 of the last 36 Coronation Stakes.
It pays to follow those at the top end of the market in the Coronation Stakes with 19/23 winners returning at odds of 6/1 or less with 11 of those 19 being favourites (or joint favourites).
Three trainers worth paying special attention to are Sir Michael Stoute who has won this race 4 times, while Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have each won this race three times. When the French cross the English Channel it is worth noting; they have won 4 of the last 13 renewals.
This year the first and second in the 1000 Guineas do battle again with Mawj and Thiyra. The later has since won the Irish version and looks to be an improving filly trained by the mercurial Dermot Weld. The second at the Curragh, Mediate who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, needs to find 1.5 lengths on Thiyra.
Saturday’s Group 1 race
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
One of the most sought-after races of the week, and worth a cool £561,000 to the winner, the QEII Jubilee Stakes is one of the biggest international sprints around bringing together sprinting sensations from around the globe.
Previous Royal Ascot form translates well in this event, with 14 of the last 27 winners having been at least placed at the track previously, while two – Choisir and Blue Point – won the Kings Stand’s Stakes earlier in the week. In fact, 4 of the last 20 winners ran in that earlier race with another two finishing runner up.
It’s a difficult race to win on seasonal debut – Naval Crown last year was the first time that had happened in 40 years. The Duke of York stakes is a good trial race – since 1992 10 winners of this race ran in the Duke of York with 6 of those winning or placing second in that York race.
International runners have a fair record with two wins for Australia in Choisir and Black Caviar; Cape of Good Hope winning for Hong Kong; Undrafted for USA; while both Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy had been running and living abroad prior to their wins.
Interesting fact is that 5/7 winners had never even run over 5 furlongs while this race has seen some upsets with 10 of last 23 winners Sp’ing at double figure odds.
