Turn your mind back 12 months, to the spring of 2021, and all was well with the world for Bryson DeChambeau and Phil Mickelson. The former started the season with an audacious victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, wowing the galleries with his preposterous long-hitting over water hazards wider than the Bristol Channel; the latter ended the flowering season by becoming the oldest major championship winner on the longest major championship course ever presented.

Neither, however, will be at the Bay Hill Club for this year’s edition of the API. Mickelson is in disgrace after his comments about the Saudis and their golf league, while DeChambeau’s rehabilitation from mysterious fitness issues prevents him defending the trophy.

The pair of them are increasingly reminiscent of Michael Caine and his pals in The Italian Job, as high in the Alps as they are high on the exhilaration of pulling off a major heist. Whereas Caine and friends were shedding minis and sticking two fingers up to the Italians as they careered around hairpin bends, Mickelson and DeChambeau were cutting ties with the old world and brazenly so. Both sets of characters were about to be tripped up by their cockiness, however, and now the two golfers are metaphorically where Caine ended the film: in the back of a coach, dangling over the edge of a ravine, the glorious riches slipping away, no longer a glittering life-enhancing booty, instead a petrifying weight that threatens to plunge them into the depths.

I don’t know about Phil, but I’ve got an idea. Let’s look at who might fare well this week at Arnie’s Place.

Each Way – Marc Leishman at 33/1

When Rory McIlroy talks of Bay Hill he often focuses on the par-5s, highlighting that when Tiger Woods was bossing the place (winning no less than eight times) he racked up the birdies and eagles on the long holes. While there is no doubt that it makes sense to follow the great man’s lead, there is also another key element at Bay Hill: the short holes matter. In fact, the last eight winners all ranked top six on the par-3s and seven of them top four.

Aussie Marc Leishman has been playing the short holes exceptionally well this season. He shares the lead in the rankings for 2021/22 and he hasn’t once ended the week over-par on them. The results are also ticking along very consistently: he’s made the cut in all nine starts, with six top 20s.

The icing on the cake is his course record. He was the winner in 2017, added second in 2020, was third in 2011 and seventh in 2018. “It’s a course I love,” he said after the win. “You need to have your game in a good spot, you’ve got to be mentally strong and then you need a couple things to go right. It’s hard to win, but it’s doable.”

Each Way – Will Zalatoris at 25/1

Take note of Leishman’s thoughts about this being a difficult week. Palmer liked the set-up to be major championship-like with hard, fast greens and tangly rough. Last year Will Zalatoris made his debut here and finished tenth, a result that backs up the notion that he is a golfer who relishes a tougher test.

Last season the 25-year-old landed sixth in the US Open, second in the Masters and eighth in the PGA Championship. He also added top 10s at Torrey Pines (a major championship venue) and Southwind (in a World Golf Championship event). The grind seems to suit him and possibly because it places greater value in the long game, which is quite clearly his strength.

This year he very nearly landed a first PGA Tour win on his return to Torrey Pines, losing out in extra holes, and he can contend again at a venue he holds dear. Twelve months ago he revealed he has a letter from Palmer framed at home and that: “I wasn’t going to miss this week because of what it means to me. I needed to be here.” He’s also, like Leishman, playing the par-3s very well this season.

Each Way – Corey Conners at 50/1

A weird quirk of Bay Hill is that only three Americans have won there since 2006. That’s partly because Tiger Woods has won four times, in addition to Matt Every rather more unexpectedly winning twice. But it’s also because international golfers have taken a shine to it. That bodes well for top pick Leishman, also Matt Fitzpatrick who came close to selection (his price is a touch tight). Instead we’ll complete this week’s team with Canadian Corey Conners.

The 30-year-old is another who has fared well in the majors in recent times, in his case landing eighth in the Masters and a pair of top 20s at the PGA Championship and Open. In all three he was on the first page of the leaderboard at some point in the week. He was also third at Bay Hill last year and, although he didn’t play the West Coast Swing too well, he won his first PGA Tour title off poor form.