IT’S the age-old question: can you guess what the geographically specific Premier League fixture with the lowest xG per game figure is in the last seven seasons?
The answer is Liverpool vs Manchester City at Anfield (1.49/game). That’s perhaps understandable, with the games largely taking place in an era where the two clubs have established themselves as the Premier League’s leading sides. Hashtag cagey but enthralling.
So, what’s second behind Liverpool v City? That would be Everton v Liverpool at Goodison Park with an average xG of 1.70 per game, and very few people would describe recent encounters between the teams as enthralling. Remember this one last season? it was the pair’s first league after the Premier League restart and it ended 0-0. In 2018-19 it ended 0-0. In 2017-18 it ended 0-0, I mean, I could go on.
But hope springs eternal. No specific fixture in English top-flight history has finished goalless for four seasons in a row, and Everton are heading into their first derby while also sitting top of the table since September 1989. Yes, they lost that one 3-1 and, yes, Liverpool went on to win the title in 1990 but that was then, this is now.
Carlo Ancelotti was winning consecutive European Cups as a player with AC Milan back then, and had probably only vaguely heard of Goodison Park and/or Stefan Rehn. 31 years later Ancelotti is guiding Everton to their first league title since 1987. Is he? Well if they beat Liverpool on Saturday then why not?
And they could, they really could. It’s 10 years and 19 Premier League encounters since Blue overcame Red but get past this one and Everton are cruising. How many teams have won their opening five games and won the league? Thirteen. How many have won their opening five and not won the league? 23. So they might not win the league but they’ll come top four. Top six minimum. They won’t go down. In the meantime, here’s a breakdown of the two sides’ defensive and attacking units ahead of Saturday, in which a certain club who play in blue come do pretty well.
Goalkeeping
Less Project Big Picture and more Project Extremely Big Goal for both Everton and Liverpool so far this season. Thanks to their 7-2 defeat at Aston Villa last time out, Liverpool’s goals against column is on 11, with only newly promoted WBA higher than that currently. Alisson may be one of the best goalkeepers in the world but his increasing propensity to get injured is a concern (incidentally, if you use being substituted as a proxy for injury proneness then the most suspect goalkeeper in Premier League history is Thomas Sørensen, who was taken off 13 times).
Liverpool’s saves to shots rate so far this season is a dramatically low 45% yet there are still four teams (Brighton, Burnley, Man Utd & West Ham) with worse. Everton’s is a more satisfactory 62% (eighth highest in the division so far, in fact) but they are experiencing the ongoing impact of an ongoing Jordan Pickford slump. The only other goalkeeper to make as many errors leading to a shot this season is Kepa and we know how that ended.
VERDICT: Until Alisson returns, Everton edge this one. Probably.
Defence
Were it not for Pickford’s high profile mistakes this season, more people would be justifiably raving about Everton’s defending. Ancelotti’s team have allowed opponents a combined 3.2 xG this season, less than any other team in the division (including those that have played a game fewer). Liverpool, in contrast, have already let in a third of the goals they conceded in 2019-20 and half of the goals they conceded in 2018-19.
That’s not a positive trend. Much was made of the Reds’ adventurous positioning against Aston Villa with the team’s defensive line an average of 41m from their own goal line, 10 metres more than Everton’s was against Brighton. Will Liverpool play that big-vacuum spaceball in their neighbours’ back yard? The results of risk versus reward have never been so instantaneous.
VERDICT: Fort Goodison Impregnable, reports Commander
Creativity
We mentioned earlier how Merseyside derbies at Goodison can be brutal, sapping games, with the last three ending goalless and barely even that. If that occurs this time then feel free to rip your science books up and set fire to the periodic table because on paper these have been the two most creative sides in the Premier League in 2020-21. Liverpool have an Expected Assists figure of 4.81, with Everton second on 4.61.
James Rodriguez, who you spent most of pre-season saying would take “some time” to settle and understand “the sheer pace of the Premier League” looks like he’s been playing here for years and has an xA of 1.41 and 12 chances created. Unfortunately, the only player who beats him on both counts in Mohamed Salah (with 1.48 and 14 respectively) and the Egyptian does seem to have started this campaign in a format known within the game as “extremely 2017-18”. Liverpool can also, potentially, usher in Thiago for his first start, so the reports that most of the nagging injuries hanging over many of the more combative elements of Everton’s midfield have lifted is very important news for the blue half of Merseyside.
VERDICT: Like some sort of end of level battle we have the dour history of this fixture up against the beautiful reality of 2020-21. Which one will prevail? Both teams know what they need to do. And it’s not “let us down”.
Attack
As well as Thiago, Liverpool also welcome back Sadio Mane for this game which feels important. There’s a stylistic contrast between the classic Liverpool front three and the now-solo point man Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who returns from the international break having scored on his England debut and back into a Premier League season in which he is the joint top-scorer and in which he has scored three of the 22 headed goals this season has seen.
Only Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane have higher xG figures than Calvert-Lewin but they have engorged their numbers with four (!) and one penalty respectively. Do you remember watching an Everton player score in his first five league games before? Probably not because it was Tommy Lawton in 1938. Salah, meanwhile, leads the division in shots within the penalty area, with 15 so far, and knows that his next goal will be his 100th for Liverpool. There’s nothing big games like more than round numbers.
VERDICT: The computer says “GOALFEST”, the memory says “no, this is Everton versus Liverpool.” The computer says “seriously Everton are really good now, this is their moment.” The memory smiles sadly and says “nine yellow cards and a game of few chances.”
