“We’ve just got to make sure we’ve got some fuel in the tank for the Ford Fiesta and the tyres are pumped up. With a bit of luck we push the Lamborghinis close,” Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder told The Times of his side’s hopes of gatecrashing the top four when the Premier League returns to complete its 2019-20 season.
Down at the lower end of the table – where many expected Sheffield United would be by this stage of the campaign – there are six clubs hoping their spluttering engines will fire just long enough to steer them to safety.
Seven points clear of the bottom three, it would take a disastrous downturn for Southampton, in 14th, to be dragged into the relegation scrap, but the same isn’t the case for 15th-placed Brighton, who are hovering precariously just two points outside the drop zone.
Below Brighton, West Ham, Watford and Bournemouth are locked on 27 points, with Aston Villa, who have a game in hand, two points further back. Then, finally, come Norwich City, rock bottom and six points and a major goal-difference deficit from safety.
"We know we are the underdog and it would be really a little miracle if we can stay in this league,” Norwich manager Daniel Farke said ahead of his side’s last fixture before the coronavirus pandemic forced football into suspended animation, a surprise 1-0 win over third-placed Leicester City. “But I think also our task is to work our socks off. If it doesn't work then we accept this."
If there is any advantage to the enforced lay-off it is that many of the relegation-threatened sextet will welcome key players back from injury who otherwise might have missed most of the remaining games.
Norwich currently report close to a clean bill of health, and Farke will be hoping star striker Teemu Pukki will return rejuvenated. A niggling toe injury had contributed to the Finnish finisher’s downturn in form before the break – the 30-year-old has scored just twice in his last 11 games, after an electric start to his first Premier League season saw him amass an impressive nine goals in 17 appearances.
Even if Puuki does rediscover his best form, though, he will need help if Norwich are to stand a chance of mustering a minor miracle; midfielder Todd Cantwell, with six goals, is the only other Norwich player to have scored more than once in the league this season.
The shutdown was not long enough to allow Gerard Deulofeu to recover from the knee injury he picked up in March, however, meaning Watford will have to cope without the enigmatic Catalan winger.
Aston Villa welcome star midfielder John McGinn from a six-month layoff, the result of an ankle injury sustained pre-Christmas. And Bournemouth are boosted by positive injury news, too, as David Brooks is set for a return after being out all season. Eddie Howe will be hoping the Welsh midfielder is back to full sharpness by the time the Cherries are faced with Manchester United, Tottenham, Leicester and Manchester City in a four-game spell next month.
Premier League football returns today. Great to have you back. ⚽️
— Gary Lineker (@GaryLineker) June 17, 2020
Bournemouth aren’t the only side who will be cursing the fixture list. Watford – who, despite their incredible 3-0 victory over champions-elect Liverpool in March, have trailed off since the initial boost their form received following Nigel Pearson’s appointment – are still to face Leicester, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal, not to mention relegation six-pointers against West Ham and Norwich.
And Villa, who’ve won just one Premier League game since New Year’s Day, are awaited by five of the top seven in their remaining fixtures, as well as Everton and Arsenal, before a potential decisive last-day trip to the London Stadium to take on West Ham.
One intriguing wrinkle to the Premier League’s return will be just how much of an effect the empty stadiums will have. Brighton were vociferous opponents of the once-floated idea of all post-comeback games being played at neutral venues, fearful of any home advantage being eradicated – and with good reason: Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool will all travel to the AmEx before the season concludes.
Even with team’s hosting home games, the empty arenas could see the customary upper-hand the home side experiences totally expunged. That has been the case thus far in the Bundesliga, at least. As The Guardian pointed out earlier this week, before the shutdown, 43.3 per cent of Bundesliga games ended in a home win, 21.9 per cent in a draw and 34.8 per cent in an away win. Since returning, it has been 21.7 per cent home wins, 30.4 per cent draws and 47.8 per cent away wins.
Of the club’s fighting for survival, it appears Aston Villa would be worst affected by this. Dean Smith’s side’s five home wins this season is the most among the bottom six, and six of their final 10 fixtures will be at Villa Park.
With so much on the line for these six clubs and so little certainty about the state in which the Premier League will return, this season’s relegation battle promises to be as tense as any that have gone before.
