Debrief
It was a poor week for the outrights in Chengdu and Zhuhai last week, but the idea of taking on top seeds John Isner and Stefanos Tsitsipas was correct, as both lost in their opening matches.
I said that big-priced players were likely to go well and they did in the forms of 50-1 shots Alexander Bublik and Adrian Mannarino, who made the finals, but in hindsight I should have taken Alex De Minaur in Zhuhai.
I mentioned that De Minaur was likely to be dangerous in these hot and humid conditions, as he was in Atlanta, and that’s one that got away, but I didn’t foresee Mannarino’s run to the final at all in those conditions and after his ‘effort’ in St. Petersburg the previous week.
Conditions and trends
We’re back at the Ariake Colosseum this season for the Japan Open after it moved indoors for one year in 2018 while the venue was being renovated for the 2020 Olympic Games.
It was always one of the faster surfaces on the tour in the past and assuming that they’re similar court this time around it has tended to be good for the bigger hitters, with Milos Raonic three-times a finalist here, while Nick Kyrgios and Juan Martin Del Potro are former champions.
But it’s been won by smaller in stature, clean ball-strikers plenty of times, too, with David Goffin winning it the last time it was held at this venue and Kei Nishikori a former winner and also losing finalist.
Qualifiers have also gone well in Tokyo lately, with Daniil Medvedev winning it last year as a qualifier and players from the quali draw have made at least the quarter finals four times in the last seven years.
At the China Open in Beijing they usually play on a Decoturf outdoor hard court that’s reasonably well paced, but tie breaks here are few and far between, with only 29% of Beijing’s matches in the last seven years.
Number one seeds have a superb record here, with the top seed having made the final every year since 2012 and winning the title in six of the last seven years.
Only one qualifier has ever made it past the last eight here and that was Martin Klizan back in 2014.
China Open
For me there’s plenty of doubt about the favourites in Beijing, with Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov all overlooked.
Thiem’s weak record in anything other than slow conditions and 3-8 win/loss record in China (lost his last five in a row and best win is over Lukas Rosol in 2014) means he doesn’t appeal at all as 8-1 second favourite in the top half of the draw.
There are plenty of others in this top half that appeal more, including perhaps Thiem’s round one opponent Richard Gasquet, who’s beaten Thiem twice in two tries.
Gasquet probably doesn’t have the fitness these days though, as he admitted last week: “I want to stay healthy. I've had a lot of physical problems. I take every match now like as if it was the last.”
He withdrew from Chengdu with yet another injury, so the likes of Kyle Edmund, Cristian Garin, Matteo Berrettini, Khachanov, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev and Fabio Fognini all come into the thinking.
It looks like Edmund is in no sort of form to back up his semi final here of a year ago, while Garin, Berrettini, Rublev and Dimitrov are all too short in price for my liking due to their good recent form, while Andy Murray surely isn’t up to winning a tournament of this level just yet.
So, I’m chancing Fabio Fognini here at 28-1 at a tournament he’s done well in lately, winning eight of his last 11 in Beijing and he was unlucky last year, having to pull out in the semis against what turned out to be a sick opponent in Juan Martin Del Potro.
Fabio could easily tank it in round one of course, but at this price at an event he has strong form in I’m happy to chance the Italian.
Khachanov becoming a new dad is a negative for me, but more off-putting is his awful form and he’s only managed to win three straight matches three times in his 21 tournaments in 2019 and he was outplayed by Joao Sousa last week.
And yet he’s favourite at 7-1, which I find very odd indeed.
Moving on to the bottom half and Gael Monfils and Stefanos Tsitsipas are big doubts based on their difficulty breathing last week and weak records in China.
Monfils has never made a semi final in China and complained that he couldn’t breathe in Zhuhai last week, as did Tsitsipas, who ended up retiring because of it.
The Greek has done little so far in China, but more of a concern is his poor form since the early summer and instances of suffering in humid conditions and Beijing’s air quality is unlikely to aid that particular issue.
Monfils does have a very good record against round one opponent John Isner, which puts me off Isner – not that Isner’s record in China is anything to write home about either.
In that section of the draw I’m tempted to look at last year’s champ Nikoloz Basilashvili, Guido Pella and whoever comes through qualies to face Zhe Li.
Basil retired with a shoulder injury in Metz and is a bit of a fitness gamble, while Pella may go well, but probably won’t go all the way, so I’ll keep an eye on that qualifying spot.
The final quarter is interesting, with Diego Schwartzman the one I like here at a price of around the 25-1 mark.
Schwartzman comfortably took down the layers’ favourite for this quarter of the draw, Alexander Zverev, at the US Open and he’s got good records against Fernando Verdasco and Sam Querrey as well.
Roberto Bautista Agut didn’t look in great form in Zhuhai and has never gone past the last eight in Beijing, while it’s unlikely that Felix Auger-Aliassime has enough left in the tank at the moment.
FAA has looked gassed since Stuttgart in the summer and may not have a lot left in his first full season at this level of competition.
Frances Tiafoe could go well if he’s on a good week, but I’m happy with the hard court form of Schwartzman in this section of the draw.
Japan Open
After winning Beijing six times Novak Djokovic tries his luck in Tokyo for the first time in 2019 and we’re guessing a little bit as to what to expect from the world number one after his shoulder injury in New York.
If we are going to take Djokovic on in the top half of the draw, assuming that he’s not fully fit, the ones that look like they could potentially achieve something and are decent prices seem to me to be Jan-Lennard Struff, Denis Shapovalov and perhaps Hubert Hurkacz.
Struff played very well here last year when it was played indoors, but a quick outdoor hard court should suit him equally as well and he’s had a good enough season to deserve a title.
Both Struff and Shapovalov, who actually beat Struff here a year ago when Struff (not for the first time) lost having had a match point (he was unlucky on a dead net cord) to win it in straight sets, are far too often found wanting in the latter stages at this level.
Shapo is now 0-7 in main level semi finals, in which he’s won precisely zero sets, while Struff is also 0-7, winning one set in total.
At 40-1 (twice the price of Shapo, even though the German has beaten the Canadian three times this season and should have beaten him that fourth time) Struff is one worth a small bet, I feel.
Hurkacz has in in him to win in these conditions as well, but I prefer the bigger price on Struff.
Marin Cilic and David Goffin will probably be popular picks in this half, but Goffin simply can’t do himself justice against the elite and needs someone else to beat Djokovic, while Cilic looks miles away from his form of old this season and both are too short for me.
Lucas Pouille is too inconsistent for my liking, while on his Chengdu form Pablo Carreno Busta has a shot, but asking him to go to the final back-to-back at this stage of the season is a big ask.
In the bottom half of the draw I am tempted with former finalist Benoit Paire at 28-1, but I’m not sure he’s fit after sickness in Metz and an apparent back injury in Chengdu.
I do like his draw and at this price he may well be worth a fitness gamble, as the conditions I think will suit him if he is physically (and mentally of course) capable this week.
Taylor Fritz is another option, but he’s played a lot of tennis this year and 20-1 is perhaps a little bit shorter than I’d like about the American.
Historically, Americans don’t tend to go well very often in this stage of the season in Asia and the only US man to have made the Tokyo final this century was another Taylor – Dent – back in 2004 (the last winner was Pete Sampras in 1996).
Perhaps at twice the price Reilly Opelka might be a better value American option, with conditions likely to suit the big man, but is he up to winning an ATP 500?
Maybe, but he also pulled out of Chengdu last week and if I’m taking a punt on someone in this half I prefer Paire.
Other options in this half include Alex De Minaur, Borna Coric and maybe Adrian Mannarino, but De Minaur and Mannarino both had long weeks in brutal conditions in Zhuhai and Coric looks some way below his best form at the moment.
Conclusion
So, Diego Schwartzman and Fabio Fognini will be my two value wagers in Beijing, while in Tokyo if we are taking a chance on Novak Djokovic being less than fully fit then Jan-Lennard Struff and Benoit Paire are my two.
Qualifying is yet to complete at either tournament at the time of writing, so I may well revisit the Beijing draw again after qualies are done.
Best Bets
1 point each-way Schwartzman to win Beijing at 26.0
0.5 points win Fognini to win Beijing at 29.0
0.5 points win Struff to win Tokyo at 41.0
0.5 points win Paire to win Tokyo at 29.0
