Conditions and trends
We’re back on the clay for the first time in 2019, with the first tournaments of the red dirt swing being played in Houston and Marrakech in very different conditions.
In Houston they play on a Lee Fast Dry surface, which is an American Har-Tru type of clay atop a hard surface underneath and players have found the top layer loose and slippery over the years.
The Wilson US Open balls speed it up and it’s tended to suit the big servers, with American players winning the title no fewer than nine times (and runner-up a further 10 times) in the 18 years that the tournament has been played in Houston.
Steve Johnson is two-time defending champ in Houston and only once in the 18 years it’s been played in Houston has an American failed to make the final at this tournament.
It’s rarely been a happy hunting ground for number one seeds though, with no top seed winner since Andy Roddick way back in 2005.
In Marrakech at the Grand Prix Hassan II they play at around 460m of altitude on outdoor red clay and if it’s warm the conditions can be tricky to master, with the altitude combining with the heat to make the balls fly.
Pablo Andujar won it at a whopping 125-1 last year and with it being the first clay event of the year another big priced winner is always possible.
The forecast suggests that the week will be sunny in Marrakech, getting warmer as the event goes on, so it may well be on the fast side this tournament.
US Men’s Clay Court Championship
This doesn’t look the best quality field and I’m happy to take on tournament favourites and top seeds Jeremy Chardy and Steve Johnson here.
In the top half of the draw Johnson is seeking an improbable hat-trick of Houston titles, but he’s ridden his luck in tie breaks to win the first two, taking seven of the nine breakers he’s played at this tournament.
That’s not likely to continue and if we look at his service hold/break total in his 15 matches in Houston (11-4 win/loss) we find that it’s only 100.5, which suggests that him winning again with those stats isn't as likely as his odds indicate.
Johnson has only won 56% of his tie breaks in the past 12 months and I prefer the claims of Reilly Opelka at 11-1, with the younger American having held serve 92.4% of the time in the last 12 months at main level and won 65% of his tie breaks.
He’ll be tough to break here and he showed again in Miami that he’s getting better off the ground, beating Diego Schwartzman and almost Daniil Medvedev in slow conditions.
Johnson aside the opposition looks rather weak in this top half of the draw and the only other one I considered was last year’s semi finalist Taylor Fritz.
Fritz was beaten by Johnson in the last four in 2018 in a deciding set and while Fritz is very inexperienced on clay this isn’t ‘normal’ clay and it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to see him making the latter stages this week.
He’s very inconsistent though and if former champion Marcel Granollers (2008) finds his best form it also wouldn’t be a great shock if Fritz lost in round one.
Casper Ruud and Hugo Dellien have been playing well on clay lately, but neither man has experienced this type of clay before and I prefer the bigger hitters on this surface.
Jordan Thompson has also been in good form of late, but his record on clay is weak and I prefer the game of Opelka in these conditions.
It’s not been a great tournament for qualifiers in recent times, with none making it past round two in the last five years and the last one to make the final was Zabaleta back in 2007.
In the bottom half of the draw Jeremy Chardy is very hard to win with (one career title at main level, back in 2009 in Stuttgart on clay) and while there are several with chances in this half I’m happy to have a small interest on another big server here.
Ivo Karlovic has a fine record here (10-6 win/loss, with one title) and made the semis again a year ago, beating Nick Kyrgios in the quarters before losing to Tennys Sandgren in the semis in two tie breaks.
He’s held serve 91.6% of the time here in Houston and broken serve a whopping (for him) 16.2% of the time, so he’ll be tricky to beat in these conditions, and his early draw looks decent.
Clay courters Pablo Cuevas and Christian Garin (who go head-to-head in round one) have claims on clay form, but Garin has never played this event before and Cuevas last tried it in 2011.
Cuevas has a poor record against big servers (6-15 win/loss overall versus the ones on my list an 1-6 on clay) while Garin’s lack of familiarity with the unique conditions mean both are overlooked for me.
Sam Querrey has done pretty well here over the years, with a 14-9 win/loss mark and a 108.4 hold/break total in those 23 matches, but he’s hard to win with as well (three title in the last almost seven years).
He also has a tricky one first up against Bjorn Fratangelo, who beat Querrey at the French Open three years ago, and I wouldn’t be backing Querrey at probable short odds to win that one.
Cameron Norrie has to have a fair chance, but he’s only played one match here (lost it to Yoshihito Nishioka) and I wonder if his style of play is best suited to this Fast-Dry surface.
History suggests that big servers and out and out clay courters do the best in Houston and I’ll pass on Norrie this time, with slight preference for Karlovic, but not enough for me have a bet.
Grand Prix Hassan II
In Marrakech their draw has been boosted by the likes of Alexander Zverev, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fabio Fognini all feeling that they need matches and thus all three have landed wild cards this week.
The tournament director must be delighted at the quality of this field, but you’ve got to wonder how many of these big names have intentions of being here for the full week with Monte-Carlo starting on Monday.
I’m happy to take a chance that several of them won’t and in the top half of the draw the bet would probably have been on last year’s runner-up Kyle Edmund, who can get the better of Tsonga in the second quarter of the draw, but a price of 8.0 is too short.
I’m not at all convinced that Zverev, who hasn’t won a 250 outside of his home country of Germany for over two years, will last the week and Jaume Munar and perhaps Aljaz Bedene appeal as decent-priced options in Zverev’s quarter.
‘Solid’ players have done well in these tricky conditions of late, with Pablo Andujar and Borna Coric both winning the title in recent years and if that trend is to continue then Munar and Bedene fit the bill.
But Edmund has that extra bit of quality and he’s been in good form of late, which is much more than be said of Zverev, who’s struggled with illness since Acapulco a couple of months back.
Zverev is 4-0 against the Brit, but their clay meetings have been tight, and Edmund is unlikely to get a better chance than this to get a win over the German.
Tsonga has won a total of one ATP 250 outside of France since the start of 2012 and I’m happy to make the assumption that he doesn’t intend to be here for the full week, while Filip Krajinovic has just lost in the Sophia Antipolis Challenger final and I wouldn’t trust his fitness in back-to-back weeks.
In the bottom half, Fernando Verdasco is a new dad and I’m rarely keen on backing older players in that situation, and it’s his first ever visit to this tournament (he usually plays Houston), which suggests he’d rather be close to home.
Albert Ramos had a bad loss last week at the Sophia Antipolis Challenger, but he’d looked back-to-form prior to that, so I wouldn’t rule him out of winning quarter three ahead of Verdasco and Gilles Simon.
Ramos is one of many Grand Prix Hassan II former finalists or winners in the bottom half of the field (Simon, Delbonis, Kohlschreiber, and Andujar are others) and while he did it in Casablanca, Ramos has made a final at much higher altitude than this in Quito (and Sao Paulo).
Indeed, his career hold/break total at this tournament is a healthy 106.4, so he goes onto the shortlist at around 33-1.
Philipp Kohlschreiber made the final in Marrakech two years ago (and then lost first up to local legend Lamine Ouahab when he came back a year later in 2018), but that’s the only time he’s made a final outside of Germany or Austria since the start of 2013.
Pablo Andujar is another new dad, but it hasn’t stopped him winning – far from it – with two Challenger wins in Marbella and Alicante, but the latter of those finished today (Sunday) and he’s now played 23 sets of clay court tennis in two weeks.
It’s asking a lot for a 33-year-old with his injury history to come back for a third straight week and win a title and despite his awesome record at the Grand Prix Hassan II it’s Andujar’s round one opponent Federico Delbonis that I’m backing instead.
Andujar has beaten Delbonis five times from five, but the last occasion was way back in 2014 and with Andujar playing the Alicante final with his right thigh strapped up I’m happy to take a chance on Delbonis at 33-1.
Delbonis won the title without dropping a set here in 2016 and he played well enough in Miami to suggest that he’s more than capable of making another final in Marrakech (he also won Sao Paulo at altitude).
Fabio Fognini is the betting favourite in this half, but Fogna’s form has been awful all season so far and who knows if he’ll fancy it this week and in any case Delbonis has beaten the Italian three times on clay.
Conclusion
Just the one bet for me in Houston, then, in the form of Reilly Opelka, while in Marrakech I would have sided with Edmund, but I want a better price than 7-1 on the Brit in that half of the draw, so instead I’ll take Delbonis and Ramos in the bottom half.
Best Bets
1 point win Opelka to win Houston at 12.0
1 point win Ramos to win Marrakech at 34.0
1 point win Delbonis to win Marrakech at 34.0
