Wednesday was another of those days where the ones I chose not to back (Kukushkin, Bachinger) won and the ones I did back lost.
Peter Gojowczyk produced a bizarre capitulation from a set up against Gilles Simon in Marseille after he opened set three with a woeful service game and allowed Simon the easiest set he’ll win all week.
Ernests Gulbis then continued our poor run of fortune by breaking himself from 40-15 up early on against Ugo Humbert with two unforced errors and a double fault in a set that saw only one further break point. Of course, set two went to a breaker.
There was better news in Rio though when those who got the 18-1 on Aljaz Bedene outright happy to now see the Slovenian in to 4-1 after winning just one match (which he was a 1.60 favourite for).
David Goffin vs Benoit Paire
What better way to try and halt a bad few days than by taking a chance on the mercurial talents of Benoit Paire?
I can see the flaws in this plan already, but in these circumstances, as much as it pains me, I have to side with the moody Frenchman in this seventh career clash with the struggling Belgian.
Goffin said of his defeat to Gael Monfils in Rotterdam that it was “my best match of 2019 and I am clearly on the right track.”
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on that one, David, and perhaps that illustrates that he needs a new coach on board ASAP, as he didn’t for one moment look like holding onto the leads he had in both sets that day.
That aside, Paire has had success against Goffin, winning three of their six, including one in very similar conditions in Metz around 18 months ago and if he can serve well (he got 58% of his first serves in that day) he has a good chance in these quick conditions.
The serve is key for Paire, who hit 20 aces that day, but he’s only made an average of 51% of first serves in his last 50 main level matches on indoor hard, which is poor.
What I was shocked to find in his stats are that Paire has won 16 of his last 20 tie breaks at main level on indoor hard (Goffin only six of his last 17) and he won both against Goffin that day in Metz.
For what it’s worth Paire seems to be enjoying it here and if he’s aggressive as he was that day in Metz he should get his rewards on this surface, which for me is a touch fast for Goffin (2-3 win/loss here in completed matches).
It’s clearly a risky one with Paire, but he looks the value of the day for me.
Matthias Bachinger hasn’t faced a top-100 ranked leftie for over four years, with the last being Jarkko Nieminen at the 2015 Australian Open, but he’s another one that likes these conditions.
His opponent on Thursday, Fernando Verdasco, was very nearly upset by the occasionally very good Egor Gerasimov in round one, with Gerasimov scoring two more points in the match and this is winnable for Bachinger on his day.
I suspect it’s a bit too quick for Nando here, with his last final on indoor hard coming way back in 2011 in San Jose, and I’m not sold on the chances of Borna Coric in these conditions either.
If we take the knockabout Next Gen event out of Coric’s indoor hard results we see that he’s 12-17 win/loss at main level and 1-3 in the only two events he’s played on surfaces that aren’t medium-slow: Marseille and Montpellier.
We’ll see how he gets on against Ugo Humbert, whose tail is up right now, but I certainly wouldn’t be backing Coric at a price like 1.43.
Delray Beach Open
A quick comparison between today’s price on Nick Kyrgios against Radu Albot and their meeting at the US Open only six months ago perhaps shows the lack of faith the market has now in the moody Aussie.
Kyrgios was priced up as a 1.14 chance last August in New York when he won in four sets and now he’s been put in as a 1.45 shot, which either says that Albot has improved substantially or that NK has declined (or is injured).
NK was mucking around as usual in that Albot match and had to save 13 break points against him that day and surely the Albot serve is too weak to see him beat two huge servers in a row after Ivo Karlovic was poor against him on Tuesday.
Kyrgios was a tad fortunate to get past John Millman in round one and his knee still seems to be a problem, but 2.75 on a player with such a poor record on outdoor hard doesn’t tempt me to back Albot.
Speaking of players with weak record on outdoor hard at main level Mackenzie McDonald is 5-13 win/loss, but he is seemingly improving, while opponent Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is clearly on the decline.
GGL has only held serve 67.3% of the time in his last 12 main level matches on outdoor hard (McDonald 76% in his last 13) and while he’s still returning well enough at 25% breaks his serve stats aren’t up to it these days.
All-time GGL has held serve 75% of the time on this surface at main level and while the slow, bouncy conditions here do suit the veteran Spaniard I don’t trust him against a very good mover like McDonald.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this one were close and over 2.5 sets would probably be my bet here, with McDonald hardly a reliable sort at this level (never won back-to-back matches at main level away from grass), but 13 of GGL’s last 15 losses have all been in straight sets.
Juan Martin Del Potro has a solid record against the big servers in my database, with a 51-15 win/loss mark at all levels and he’s won 17 of his last 20 against them.
The two he lost to John Isner last season were in matches where Delpo had played a ton of tennis beforehand and was running on fumes, but he did lose to Raonic here at Delray Beach in 2017.
Reilly Opelka did very well to come straight from indoor hard in New York to winning outdoors in Florida in less than two days, but I expect he’ll start to feel the effects of that title run pretty soon.
Steve Johnson enjoyed a welcome win to snap a long losing streak in round one here against Jason Jung and he’ll probably have too much for Paulo Lorenzi, but I very much doubt it will be anything like easy for Johnson.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Paire to beat Goffin at 2.70
