There is far more that unites Newcastle and Chelsea than divides them this season.
A pertinent similarity is that both have put together successful campaigns that warrant acclaim. Yet you have to sieve through a lot of media before you find sincere praise for their achievements, our attention taken up with Liverpool winning the title, Man City dropping off, Spurs and Man United enduring crisis, and Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest being consistently exceptional.
There are, after all, only so many narratives to go around. Let’s put that right then; let’s give them their flowers. Newcastle have won 19 Premier League matches this term, last winning 20 well over two decades ago. Since mid-December, only Liverpool has scored more goals, and all this means they are on course to match—or better—their points tally in 2022/23, when they secured the top four and were considered the bee’s knees.
As for Chelsea, it’s easy to see why their huge improvement in recent seasons has been downplayed. It’s because the Blues were blisteringly good across the first half of 2024/25 and immersed in the title reckoning. Cole Palmer was racking goal involvements like they were going out of fashion. At the same time, Enzo Maresca was credited with turning a circus of a club into a serious, award-winning drama.
A subsequent decline – for not only the club but also in Palmer’s form and Maresca’s reputation – has meant that we’ve all sort of forgotten about Chelsea, overlooking the fact that two years of underachievement and Champions League exile could very well be coming to an end.
When results started to matter late, they lost just one in nine and kept clean sheets in five. Beyond the sexier storylines elsewhere, these two sides have rediscovered the right path, which has put each in the top five, on 63 points with a +21 goal difference.
What a game potentially awaits us at St James Park this Sunday lunchtime. It will go a long way toward shaping the top five scrap, featuring equals in fine form. For the neutral tuning in, that’s box office, but from a betting perspective, that makes things tricky. Thankfully, there are still elements that have made their journey to this juncture different.
We can assume, for example, that the visitors will pick up most of the bookings, seeing yellow 94 times this term to Newcastle’s 60. Maresca’s miscreants have been cautioned three times apiece in their last four away fixtures in the league. The Magpies have been booked once per 90 in their last four home games. Then there’s Alexander Isak, whose converted penalty last weekend levelled Newcastle’s record goal haul in the Premier League from an individual, unsurprisingly, Alan Shearer.
The prolific Swede has scored in his last four encounters with Chelsea, the most recent occasion back in October, igniting an incredible run that amounts to 22 goals in 26 league outings. Compared to his striking counterpart Nicolas Jackson, Isak has converted every 112 minutes this season to Jackson’s 220 minutes, though it should be noted that the Chelsea man also bagged when these sides last clashed. Additionally, the Senegalese forward recorded two shots on target against Liverpool last Sunday, continuing a decent return versus the current top six. It adds up to 1.2 SOT per 90.
Back Isak to score and Jackson to have over 0.5 shots on target at 23/10
Staying with players and staying with Chelsea, Enzo Fernandez’s impact at the Bridge this past year has gone unfairly under the radar. Only three top-flight players have created more chances than the Argentine this term, while two assists and a goal in his last three appearances have him pegged as a possible difference-maker in the North-East. And if not Fernandez, we can rely on Palmer to trouble a Newcastle rearguard that has notably tightened up in recent weeks, a capitulation at Villa Park aside.
Forget about Palmer’s goal-drought – that ended last weekend courtesy of a spot-kick – and ignore the drop-off in assists. The midfielder’s overall numbers are on a curve,, and, he’s getting back to his best.
Add Noni Madueke and a revived Pedro Neto into the mix. The visitors unquestionably have a front five capable of heading back south with the points at the weekend, especially with Newcastle’s propensity to gift opportunities to the opposition. For all of their fine form and results, the Magpies have conceded 2.1 big chances per 90 in their most recent five outings. And yet – and it’s a big yet – we should not belittle the host’s goal-scoring prowess, particularly at home.
In front of the Toon Army, Eddie Howe’s men have blasted three per 90 across five bountiful months. We should not dismiss either team’s recent habit of scoring first, as they have done so in six of their last eight contests. And how can we disregard a supply line for Isak that includes Harvey Barnes? Since fighting back into the first-team reckoning, Barnes has made 14 key passes, one every 54 minutes.
Picking out a winner here is tough,h andito instinct over stats. It is far better to go with goals and a trademark early strike by the Magpies.
Go for over 2.5 goals and over 0.5 first-half goals by Newcastle at 22/25
Please remember to gamble responsibly. Visit our Safer Gambling section for more information, help and advice.
