The French Open will be a little different this year, but will that mean a different winner of the men’s singles?
New balls, cooler, damper conditions, no (or at least very sparse) crowds, Covid-19 protocols and a roof over the main court may well all make for a more interesting fortnight than it usually is in Paris.
Debrief
First, last week’s look back and at the time of writing we’re still in the game with Cristian Garin, who takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis in Hamburg after Tsitsipas got the better of my other two picks Dusan Lajovic (quarters) and Pablo Cuevas (round two).
Both Cuevas and Lajovic had their chances in their opening sets against Tsitsipas, but didn’t take them and those spurned opportunities cost us in the end.
Conditions and trends
This year at the French Open conditions and circumstances do look like they may well combine to make life difficult for the darling of Chatrier Court, Rafael Nadal.
Gone are the Babolat balls that he likes, replaced by Wilson ones, and if he gets scheduled, as seems likely, for a few night matches under the brand new roof on Chatrier, well, we saw how slow, evening conditions affected his game in Rome.
Without a dusty court to work with, his heavily top spun forehand is much less effective, and he has far fewer matches under his belt coming into this year’s French Open than usual, which is another negative for Nadal.
I can’t imagine the personality of Nadal that likes to have things just so will appreciate the strict regime in place for Covid protection either, so this looks the year to take Rafa on.
The trends say that an unheralded winner is highly unlikely, but that’s largely due to Nadal having things all his own way here for the last 15 years or so and this year I’m looking for a player with power that on a good day just might be able to dethrone the King of Clay in conditions that are likely to be slow and heavy.
Holding a clay major in October in Paris seems pretty daft and the weather forecast suggests rain or rain showers for pretty much the entire fortnight, which will not only cause delays, but make it damp and heavy, too.
The draw – quarter one
Of the three market leaders I’m leaning towards Novak Djokovic here, with Nadal and Dominic Thiem unlikely to enjoy these damp, slow conditions too much.
Thiem also relies on a lot of top spin and another negative with him for me is the difficulty in winning back-to-back majors on different surfaces after just landing what was an emotionally draining maiden Slam title in New York.
All of this could play into the hands of Djokovic, who’ll be seething still about that New York default and he’ll be aware that conditions won’t be to Nadal’s liking this fortnight.
He’ll also be happy that Nadal and Thiem have both been drawn in the bottom half, while he’s in the top half, and I’m not sure that I can envisage any of those in quarter one of the draw bothering Djokovic that much.
Hubert Hurkacz has played well on the clay lately and he might stretch Djokovic for a time on a good day, while Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini have the kind of power I’m looking for and Cristian Garin the clay skills, but I’m not sure about the rest.
Roberto Bautista Agut needs it much quicker than this to play his most effective tennis, while Pablo Carreno Busta is also better when it’s faster (hasn’t won a clay title since 2017 and his last win was in quick conditions in Chengdu).
Khachanov probably won’t enjoy the low bounce in damp conditions and was taken apart by Dusan Lajovic on slow clay in Hamburg earlier this week, highlighting his limitations, so Berrettini and Garin look the likeliest alternatives to Djokovic here, along with maybe Ugo Humbert, who’s played some great stuff in Hamburg this week.
I’m not sure I can see any of them beating Djokovic though, with the Serb having had valuable clay match time in Rome when winning there and hitting a flatter ball than the likes of Nadal and Thiem should help him here.
The draw – quarter two
This looks far and away the most competitive quarter of the draw, with at least half a dozen (and arguably more) in with a shot of progressing to the semi finals from this section.
I’d be surprised if the name of Daniil Medvedev came through this quarter, given his dislike for clay generally and the Russian surely will hate the even slower conditions that the rain in Paris is likely to provide.
If Nikoloz Basilashvili wasn’t in such a funk right now he’d have a shot at the immediate section of Medvedev, but he can’t be recommended at the moment, and this looks a pretty good opportunity for Andrey Rublev to reverse the US Open form with Medvedev.
I tipped Rublev to win in Rome and that turned out to be perhaps a week too early, with Rublev going well this week in Hamburg and at the time of writing favourite to progress to the final there.
Rublev has the sort of power I’m looking for and after working on his fitness (and his backhand, seemingly) during the tour’s hiatus he has much of what will be required this fortnight in Paris – unless he uses a lot of his energy in Hamburg.
Rublev said after beating Roberto Bautista Agut in Hamburg: “I like these conditions. I like the cold weather. I like when we play outside on clay with the conditions really slow because I know it is going to be long rallies, it is going to be smart.”
He should be right at home this fortnight, then.
Two others that are possible long shots in this top half of Q2 are Laslo Djere and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at around the 66-1 and 80-1 marks.
Djere beat Diego Schwartzman (and Jannik Sinner) in straight sets in quicker conditions at altitude in Kitzbuhel a few weeks ago and only missed out on the final there in a final set tie break, so he’s playing well at the moment.
He also proved in Rio in 2019 that he can win in slow conditions on the clay and he might well sneak though if the more fancied players aren’t up to it this fortnight for whatever reason.
Davidovich Fokina is a flashy shot maker that’s been getting results lately, with notable wins on hard courts as well as clay, notably in beating Hurkacz and Cam Norrie in New York.
He also played very well in Rome qualies before losing out to Dusan Lajovic and he might cause an upset or two this fortnight, but he probably hasn’t got the consistency to go deep at a major just yet.
Lajovic at 66-1 is another possibility in the top half of Q2, with the man we backed in Hamburg blowing that lead against Stefanos Tsitsipas in what turned out to be the all-important set one tie break and it’s his mental strength that’s the big worry for me here.
I’m not sure he’d be able to handle a major quarter final and Rublev (with Djere as back up) is the one I take to make the last eight from Medvedev’s section of the draw.
The bottom half of Q2 is also competitive-looking, with Denis Shapovalov, Grigor Dimitrov, Filip Krajinovic, and Tsitsipas the likely ones to battle it out for a quarter final spot.
Shapovalov’s level in Rome where he very nearly made the final puts him right in contention, as does his 5-1 career series lead over Tsitsipas, but his price is probably too short now.
The Canadian doesn’t mind the slower conditions, as he can get rushed on quicker hard courts, and he’s a strong contender in this section along with Tsitsipas.
They’re the most likely pair for me to contest that last eight spot, with Dimitrov holding a woeful record at the French Open, where he’s yet to pass the last-32.
Only two of Dimitrov’s 15 main level finals have come on clay, the last of those back in 2016 and surely the Bulgarian likes conditions to be faster than those he’ll encounter this fortnight.
Similarly, Krajinovic is for me more effective in faster conditions and I still recall him being overpowered far too easily on a very autumnal day last year in Budapest by Matteo Berrettini.
He didn’t like the wind that day nor the slow conditions and I wouldn’t be too keen on his stamina either if he has a couple of four or five setters early on, so the Serb is not for me as short as 10-1 in this quarter.
Pablo Cuevas played well against Tsitsipas in Hamburg, but, as he tends to do, faltered at the vital times in the match, going 0-5 on his break points, while being broken on the only two he faced in the match (one with a double fault).
He probably won’t win the quarter, but slow conditions will suit him and he may be a tough opponent for Tsitsipas again in round two if that match happens.
The draw – quarter three
I am tempted to take Dominic Thiem on here, given the playing conditions we’re expecting in Paris this fortnight, but overall I think that Q2 is the better option to go for if you’re playing the quarter winners markets.
If you are taking on Thiem in Q3 then the likely ones to favour appear to be Diego Schwartzman and Casper Ruud, with maybe Stan Wawrinka a slight possibility if he can roll back the years somewhat.
I’m not at all convinced that Wawrinka has the fitness these days to go really deep in a major and having split with long-time coach Magnus Norman last week the signs don’t look great for what would be a remarkable return to form for Stan.
There’s a lot to like about Casper Ruud’s game and he showed in Rome and Hamburg (and when he won for us at 25-1 in slow conditions at Buenos Aires in February) that when he has time on the ball he can be very dangerous, but maybe Ruud lacks the experience just yet.
Schwartzman surprised everyone – even himself – when turning round what was some pretty poor form since the tour’s resumption into some great stuff in his last three matches in Rome a couple of weeks ago.
Beating Nadal on clay at a Masters 1000 is something that only six non-major champions have done (Coria, Verdasco, Ferrer, Fognini and Tsitsipas the others) and he has an obvious chance on that form.
His draw looks good, too, with the out of form Gael Monfils, along with Taylor Fritz and Borna Coric, the relatively weak-looking opposition in his mini-section, but with his style of play fitness may become an issue in these conditions.
That’s the only negative I can think of and at 75-1 outright I think we may have to chance the Argentine, who might appreciate the lower bouncing ball on this damp clay.
Felix Auger-Aliassime doesn’t look like being a threat at this level on clay at the moment and it looks a three horse race in Q3 between Thiem (who may have a tricky one first up against Marin Cilic), Ruud and Schwartzman.
Thiem, like Nadal (and for the same reason as Rafa) is another one that loved the Babolat ball, as it takes more top spin: “I'm a little bit sad because the Babolat, it was my favourite ball, it was perfect,” Thiem said.
The draw – quarter four
Immediately, Q4 seems likely to be a straight fight between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev in what looks a quarter of the draw that’s lacking in quality.
A sick Benoit Paire, who’s had more negative and positive tests than you can shake a stick at, along with half-fit duo Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori, an out of form David Goffin and clay-averse pair Dan Evans and Alex De Minaur are just some of the opposition in this quarter.
John Isner may actually be okay in these conditions, as his serve will still be tough to break and his movement won’t be as tested as it is in quicker conditions, but it’s hard to see him having the fitness to go too far on a bunch of tie break sets.
Goffin may turn out to be the best of the rest if he’s in one of his better frames of mind this fortnight, but I prefer him in quicker conditions and he has a tough one first up in Jannik Sinner, who’s one that could go well, but I’m not at all convinced about his fitness in a major – and especially on slow clay.
And that leaves us really with Zverev and Nadal.
Zverev has David Ferrer with him now, although I’m not sure that’s a big win given that Zverev has already been way closer to winning a slam than Ferrer ever was and if the German is thinking of adopting a Ferrer style of play surely that’s the wrong path for Zverev to take.
You never really know what to expect from Zverev each time he steps onto the court, but he could well have beaten Nadal on slow clay in the Rome final of 2018 when rain really put a spanner in the works at a time when Zverev was in command.
He has the game for it, but he could equally do what he did here the last two years and waste his energy on really long matches early on and have nothing left for the business end.
As for Nadal, well, he’s barely played any tennis since the end of February and in conditions that look set to be far from ideal there are obvious question marks, but unless Fognini has some sort of miracle recovery who’s going to beat him ahead of the quarters?
By then he’ll have played himself into form, I assume, and I’m not seeing any great value in taking him on in this quarter, but these conditions are a real worry if you’re backing Nadal at 2.10 outright.
He practiced with the Wilson balls in Majorca, but, unsurprisingly, didn’t like them: “In Mallorca with warm conditions, the ball was very slow, I think [it's] not a good ball to play on clay, honestly. That is my personal opinion. Even with these conditions it makes things tougher.”
Conclusion
So, doubts persist over the new ball and the cold, damp playing conditions and that really encourages me to think that perhaps this could be the year that Nadal is toppled here for only the third time in his career.
I’m not seeing anyone in Q4 (other than obviously Zverev) that’s likely to take advantage though, so maybe it’s worth really chancing our arm and going for a finalist from the bottom half, given that Thiem also dislikes the balls and won’t be as effective in damp/slow conditions and coming off that epic New York win, too.
He’s also had little time to prepare on clay (he says six days isn’t enough) and so I’ll chance Schwartzman at 75-1 each-way, with Rublev my Q2 pick and Djere as a real long shot in that quarter.
Best Bets
0.5 points each-way Schwartzman at 76.0
1 point win Rublev to win quarter two at 4.50
0.5 points win Djere to win quarter two at 67.0
