It’s been a decent tournament in terms of the bet options and suggestions I’ve made so far at the Australian Open, but it feels like an opportunity missed rather.
Once again on Tuesday I chose the wrong bet option from the two I identified in the Roger Federer vs Tennys Sandgren clash, with the overs an easy winner, but the opening set was won quickly by Federer.
After that we saw another miraculous escape from Federer, who got away with saving seven match points against Sandgren after getting himself of another sizeable hole at 4-8 down in the final set breaker against John Millman in an earlier round.
It doesn’t seem likely that 38-year-old Federer will have a lot left in the tank to face Novak Djokovic in a couple of days, but that’s for later, for now it’s the last of the men’s quarter finals.
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
It’s finally set to get warmer in Melbourne on Wednesday, with 29C heat in the shade expected during the day, but by the time this pair meet at (not before 08:30 UK time) it’ll be a cooler 25C in the last of the day’s sunshine.
The lack of anything approaching brutal temperatures at this year’s Australian Open, combined with slower courts and balls that fluff up very quickly, has really helped the progress of Thiem this year.
The Austrian had shown little in this part of the world in fast conditions until now and it seems like those factors have played into his hands this fortnight so far.
We saw Thiem’s improvement on hard courts at the back end of last season, but most of it was in slower condition in venues like Beijing and Vienna, and he’ll be delighted that it’s been much slower than usual in Melbourne this year.
He’s also had a nice draw up to this point and the layers don’t expect Thiem to get any further – and maybe he won’t – but at these prices I’m happy to side with him in some way.
Nadal has beaten Thiem nine times in 13 matches, but all bar one have come on clay, and the single clash they have had so far on a hard court was really close.
That came at the US Open of 2018 when Nadal edged it 7-6 in the fifth set after Thiem had bagelled Nadal in the opening set and with this match being played at night there’s a good chance that Thiem can go close again.
Thiem’s a dangerous opponent for anyone in the game when he has time on the ball and that isn’t usually the case here in Australia, but at night with fluffed up balls this is likely to become a real physical battle.
Thiem isn’t afraid to take on the Nadal forehand and while he’d perhaps have a better chance over the best of three sets (as it’s very tough to remain at a high aggressive level for five sets) he certainly has the potential to take this at least past the overs or handicap mark.
We’ve seen Thiem’s all-out attack policy pay dividends against Nadal on clay in the recent past, with a super display to beat the King of Clay 2-0 on his home dirt in Barcelona last year and prior to that in Madrid.
If we look at the numbers of that US Open quarter final clash it’s fair to conclude that Thiem was unlucky, having won more points on first serve (71% to 67%) and the same number on second serve (56% each), plus Thiem led serve 4% more often and won five more points in the match.
Nadal will be wary of this opponent and we saw against Nick Kyrgios that the Spaniard isn’t as rock solid on serve as he is on clay, twice blinking when in control, before edging through in four sets in match he controlled but could have been extended to five sets in.
Thiem +4.5 games or Thiem +1.5 sets look the wagers of interest here.
Before all of that at around 03:30 UK time in the heat of the day Alexander Zverev takes on Stan Wawrinka for the right to face the winner of Nadal versus Thiem.
And this one looks to be priced up about right to me, with the improving Zverev likely to have the edge over Wawrinka – if the German keeps up the level we’ve seen from him the last couple of matches.
He’s certainly had a much lighter campaign so far than usual at a major, with all straight sets wins, so that will help, as will the lack of brutal heat this tournament so far.
It is expected to be much warmer on Wednesday though and maybe that’ll have a bearing on this one, with Wawrinka having been tested in all of his completed matches so far in two five sets battles and a four set struggle.
There’s little doubt that Stan still has flashes of his old level in him, but can he maintain it for long enough these days to get the better of the likes of Zverev and following that the Nadal’s and Djokovic’s of this world?
I’m not so sure he can, but I wouldn’t write off his chances of potentially winning this one, with Zverev’s level not something that anyone’s been able to rely on for some time.
I’m not sure that the quicker conditions – if they prove to be so – on Wednesday will favour either of these players particularly, with both preferring the slower hard courts, but Stan has brought some good numbers into this one: 60% of second serve points won and 79% of first serve points won, plus 90% holds of serve, so far this tournament.
Zverev’s had an easier route through, but he’s held serve 92% of the time, winning 80% of his first serve points, and it’s that shot that’s helped him so fr, but it can go wrong.
He’s been much better this tournament in terms of not hitting so many double faults (just 0.16 per game) and making a whopping 78% of his first serves, but any significant drop in first serve percentage and/or the doubles creeping back in may cost him dear.
Zverev’s won 53.3% of his second serve points, which is no more than okay considering the opposition he’s had, and if that serve isn’t firing this will be tough.
If he does bring his best level I’d make Zverev slight favourite, which is how the layers see it, but I’m not sure I trust him to retain that level, so no bet for me here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Thiem +4.5 games to beat Nadal at 1.94
