A Pavlyuchenkova – Danielle Rose Collins (Tuesday 03.30)
I find it hard to figure out, why Rose Collins is considered such an outsider here. They have no previous meetings so let us have a look at their respective matches so far in the tournament.
Pavlyuchenkova defeated ninth seed Bertens in three sets and did the same against 30th seed Sasnovich and sixth seed Stephens, the latter in a match that lasted just a little more than two and half hours and finished well beyond midnight Melbourne-time.
Nice results but are they scarier than those of Collins?
She opened by beating 14th seed Goerges in three sets. In round three she knocked out 19th seed Garcia, before annihilating second seed Kerber.
The last two matches were won in 63 and 56 minutes!!!
In other words, she has beaten players ranked at least as good as Pavlyuchenkova, while being on the court for 191 minutes compared to the Russians 310 in the last three rounds.
On top of that, she is ranked higher than Pavlyuchenkova, so what is it that makes her an outsider?
It is the fifth time that the Russian has reached a quarterfinal at a Major and the previous four times she lost to a seeded player, so this looks her big chance.
Trouble is, Collins has not played like a 35th seed so far.
2 points Collins to beat Pavlyuchenkova at 2.12
Petra Kvitova – Ashleigh Barty (Tuesday 08.00)
The second quarter-final of the day sees a repeat of the final in Sydney from 12 January and if this turns out to be as exciting, you better fasten your seatbelt.
On that day Kvitova won 1-6 7-5 7-6 after two hours and 19 minutes of fighting, and both women have shown at the Australian Open that their form in Sydney was no fluke.
Kvitova has raced to the quarters without dropping a set, while Barty has gone past the 4th round in a Slam for the first time.
If she is to go even further she will have to break another streak, since she has yet to beat Kvitova in their three previous meetings.
The first meeting was back in 2012 on clay where Barty only won three games, but clay is her least favourite surface. In 2017 they played on grass, with Kvitova winning in three sets after losing the first, just as she did in Sydney recently.
With her head-to-head record, no one can’t argue with Kvitova being favourite, but the question is whether she will stand up to a real examination.
On paper she has met some good opponents but nevertheless she has yet to play one higher ranked than number 48. Barty is number 15.
Barty is an excellent player who has perhaps just lacked that little bit of extra belief and a win against Sharapova might prove a mental breakthrough.
Should one go with Kvitova winning in three sets and odds 2.50, just like she did in their two previous meetings? Or go out on a lim on Barty at odds 2.35? After all, it has been 16 Grand Slams since Kvitova last went further than the quarter-finals.
I am going with the slightly cautious “Barty to win a set”. She knows she can do it, and Kvitova has never in her 12-year career at Majors ever managed five wins on the trot without dropping a set.
3 points Barty +1.5 sets against Kvitova at 1.52
Best best:
2 points Collins to beat Pavlyuchenkova at 2.12
3 points Barty +1.5 sets against Kvitova at 1.52
