ANGELIQUE Kerber looks to be playing too well and has too good a h2h (head-to-head) record against Danielle Rose Collins for me to be involved in that encounter, but I find good value in going after the other three matches from the women’s bottom half of the draw in the 4th round.
Petra Kvitova – Amanda Anisimova (Sunday 00.00)
Of course, one can’t rule out that this is finally the year where it all clicks again for Kvitova, but in spite of the way she has thorn through the first three rounds, there is ample reason to be cautious.
Since 2015 the only Major where she has gone further than the 4th round is the US Open. In Melbourne, it has been slim pickings. Last year she lost to number 98 in the rankings and it has often looked really good right until the point where it did not look good anymore.
Back in 2015, she dropped 11 games in the first two rounds only to lose in straight sets in the 3rd. At the US Open in ’15, she stormed to the quarterfinal without dropping a set and ended up losing. In 2016 at the US Open she didn’t drop a set in the first three rounds only to lose in the 4th.
Seventeen-year-old Amanda #Anisimova breaks new ground at the #AusOpen
– Youngest to make R16 at a major since Serena in 1998
– Youngest to reach R16 at AO since Jennifer Capriati in 1993
– First player born in the 2000s (man or woman) to reach R16 at a slam– Getty pic.twitter.com/0BjmuprrUm
— Live Tennis (@livetennis) January 18, 2019
It doesn’t mean it will happen here though, but it has to be taken into consideration and when you compare it with how well Anisimova has played, it doesn’t seem farfetched that the petite American can cause another upset.
She has yet to drop a set as well, in the 2nd round she butchered the seeded Lesya Tsurenko by 6-0 6-2, and followed that up by hammering Sabalenka, seeded 13, by 6-3 6-2.
These two women have played once before. On hard courts in Indian Wells in March last year. Anisimova entered the competition on a wild card with Kvitova seeded 9. Anisimova won 6-2 6-4.
In other words, she knows she has nothing to fear from Kvitova and she must be high on confidence right now.
2 points Anisimova to beat Kvitova at 2.60
Ashleigh Barty – Maria Sharapova (Sunday 01.30)
Sharapova has just taken down the defending champion and not because Wozniacki played poorly. She just got outfought by a really well-playing Russian. You could see from the look on her face afterwards how much that win meant to her.
As I wrote on Thursday she has had some problems against the best players since her comeback. Well, she didn’t against Wozniacki, and even though Barty looks good, how well does she cope with being a favourite here?
Coming a new #AusOpen champion.
Maria Sharapova deals 37 winners to dethrone Caroline Wozniacki 6-4 4-6 6-3: https://t.co/NvltJngCIr#sleepisfortheweak pic.twitter.com/c8DjiwwHur
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 18, 2019
They have met once before on clay last year with Sharapova winning in three. Barty has never passed the 4th round in a Major and just like she has done this year in Melbourne she reached the 4th round in the US Open last year without dropping a set.
She ended up losing then to Pliskova, a player relying heavily on a huge serve and some big hitting almost constantly. A style not exactly dissimilar to the one Sharapova puts on display.
In my opinion, Barty has become too big a favourite at a stage in a Major like this where she has yet to succeed.
0.5 points Sharapova to beat Barty at 2.32
Sloane Stephens – A. Pavlyuchenkova (Sunday 11.00)
Pavlyuchenkova looked awesome against Sasnovich in the 3rd round where the Russian only dropped three games! In the 2nd round, she took down Kiki Bertens, seeded 9th.
Last year she reached the quarterfinal in Melbourne taking down Svitolina and 8th seeded Kuznetsova along the way so she enjoys Melbourne which is why I believe Stephens is in for a hard fight.
They met once last year, in Beijing in September, where Stephens eventually won in three after losing the opener.
Stephens has yet to drop a set in Melbourne this year. She has played Majors since 2011 and she has never ever gone four games on the spin without dropping a set.
Headed into R4… ➡️
@SloaneStephens scores a 7-6(6), 7-6(5) win over P. Martic at the #AusOpen. Next up for the 2017 #USOpen champion: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova#USTennis pic.twitter.com/3vGJQLp0Ae
— USTA (@usta) January 18, 2019
2 points Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 sets at 1.56
Best bets:
2 points Anisimova to beat Kvitova at 2.60
0.5 points Sharapova to beat Barty at 2.32
2 points Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 sets at 1.56
