Debrief

Last week at the Rome Masters it was once again a case of right idea/wrong result when we were proven correct to take on a rusty Rafael Nadal in the bottom half of the draw.

A expected, several of the players looked just as rusty on the surface and Stefanos Tsitsipas was one of the worst of these, with the Greek helpfully admitting after I’d written my preview that his transition to clay hadn’t gone well – and he wasn’t underplaying it.

Tsitsipas was woeful and should have lost 1 and 3 to Jannik Sinner before eventually losing in three, while Andrey Rublev showed flashes, but lost to a very good deciding set from Hubert Hurkacz, despite having good stats and winning more points in the match overall. 

That was frustrating because once an inspired performance from Diego Schwartzman in conditions that were very unhelpful to Nadal had got rid of the Spaniard from the draw, it would have been a chance for Rublev to make the final.

Schwartzman’s level in that quarter final surprised even the player himself, as he’d been really poor by his standards since the resumption of the tour and struggled through the opening rounds in Rome before finding inspiration against Nadal.

“It was crazy. Tennis is crazy,” Schwartzman said. “The last three weeks were really bad for me. I was thinking to go to Hamburg, get rhythm in the first round. I was not playing very well and today I played my best tennis ever.”
 

Conditions and trends

Hamburg usually offers plenty of value to the outright punter and last year we managed to get a 50-1 each-way placed when Andrey Rublev made the title match and lost out in the deciding set to 28-1 chance Nikoloz Basilashvili, who defended the title he’d won the previous year as a qualifier.

Prior to that, Leo Mayer made the final twice in succession, winning it in 2017 as a lucky loser, before making the 2018 title match as a 40-1 shot, while Martin Klizan won here as a 33-1 chance in 2016, so it’s been a tournament with plenty of value on the outrights lately.

Rafael Nadal is the only number one seed to have won Hamburg since it was elevated to ATP 500 status back in 2009, so I’m on the hunt for a decent priced winner this week in Germany.

Playing conditions are usually on the slow side at the Rothenbaum (which does have a roof on centre court), with the tournament ranking very low in both service holds and tie breaks – and that’s from when it was played in July.

The forecast for the week in Hamburg this time says to expect a fair start to the week, with sunshine plentiful, but the end of the week appears to be looking rainy, so it’ll be most likely be on the slow side overall.
 

The draw – top half

I’m happy to take number one seed Daniil Medvedev to continue the poor recent record of top seeds at this event, given that it’s the week before a major on his worst surface and that he didn’t exactly look fully fit at the US Open.

Medvedev has made an ATP 500 final on clay (Barcelona last year) but that’s his only one since Futures in 2015 and surely it’ll be too slow for the Russian here in Hamburg this week.

The most obvious alternative by far in Medvedev’s quarter in Casper Ruud, but he’s peaked a week too early now after a fine week in Rome and it has to be questioned how much energy he’ll put into Hamburg now.

I’m actually tempted to back Benoit Paire instead here at a big price, with Paire having gone really well the week prior to majors lately.

Paire’s last three main level finals have all come the week before a major: at Auckland this year and at Winston-Salem and Lyon in 2019, so he’s been one player that’s prepared to go deep despite a Grand Slam looming.

He couldn’t be in worse form, fitness, health or mood at the moment, which makes it very hard to have any faith in him whatsoever, but it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if Paire went well here – he won Lyon on the clay last year after losing in round one of Rome to Radu Albot the previous week. 

Philipp Kohlschreiber looks like he’s past his best now, while Fabio Fognini is miles away from his best tennis after double ankle surgery recently and he’s talking about ending his season after this mini clay swing.

“After not playing seven months and the operation, coming back and playing a match like this [the loss to Humbert in Rome] gives me hope,” Fog said. “Now I'm going to play in Hamburg, then I play in Paris and afterwards I will sum up. I'll have to decide if it's worth closing down the year after Paris or trying to play faster courts.”

Both of those are readily overlooked and I can’t see Ugo Humbert enjoying these slow conditions either and so the two players that will occupy the qualifier/lucky loser spot in Q1 might have been of interest given how well qualifiers have gone here in the past, but Gilles Simon, Jiri Vesely, Tennys Sandgren and Tommy Paul don't look up to winning a 500 on clay. 

In Q2, Roberto Bautista Agut has just become a dad and his mind may not be on tennis right now, while Nikoloz Basilashvili looks even less likely than Paire to figure this week, despite being two-time defending champion.

Basil’s problems have been well documented and his form is awful, so it would take a massive turnaround for the Georgian to make it a hat-trick of Hamburg titles this week, but maybe a return to the Rothenbaum will inspire him? Who knows?

Yoshihito Nishioka needs it much quicker than this and showed his limitations on clay when being thrashed by Grigor Dimitrov last week and by Guido Pella in Kitzbuhel, while surely Dominik Koepfer (who also isn’t a natural on clay) will be exhausted after a very long week in Rome.

Kevin Anderson still needs a lot of matches to find his form after injury and the tour’s suspension and it’s unlikely that slow clay will be the surface that he’ll find it again on.

That leaves the man we had last year here at a big price, Andrey Rublev, and another couple of qualifiers to complete the top half.

Rublev has obvious claims and he’ll probably go well this week after I backed him last week, but 16-1 or so doesn’t appeal that much and I’d rather take a chance on Paire at a big price.
 

The draw – bottom half

The bottom half looks wide open as well, with high seed Stefanos Tsitsipas showing really poor form last week in Rome, as did our third seed, Gael Monfils, who was almost as bad as Tsitsipas at the Foro Italico.

Diego Schwartzman is likely to take it a bit easier this week now after his efforts in Rome – if he turns up at all – while Kei Nishikori declared himself “about 50 to 60 percent” in terms of his fitness after losing in Italy.

Felix Auger-Aliassime was eased aside pretty comfortably by Filip Krajinovic last week and doesn’t look to have quite the game just yet for clay, so I like this as an opportunity for Cristian Garin to get back to winning ways.

I talked about Garin last week, but decided against backing him in the end in Rome, and that was the right decision, as he was awful in defeat to Borna Coric, with the serve in particular all over the place.

He’ll need far better than that to be a factor in Hamburg, but that Rome form was nowhere near the level we’ve seen from Garin in the last year or so on the clay and we know he has it in him to challenge at ATP 500 level on his ‘real’ form.

A half fit Nishikori and a very rusty Gael Monfils could conceivably be beaten by Garin, while Schwartzman is 5-6 in Germany, with not one semi final in his six attempts in this country.

Having gone deep in Rome last week it would be no surprise to see another half-hearted Schwartzman showing in Germany and especially the week before a major after a long week in Italy.

Schwartzman has a perfect 5-0 (10-0 in sets) record against Albert Ramos, so he’ll probably make round two if he plays at all, but Schwartzman isn’t for me at this price, while Yannick Hanfmann usually plays his best stuff in quicker conditions at altitude and this'll likely be too slow for him. 

The other interesting one in this half of the draw is Dusan Lajovic, who as we know made a final on slow clay in Monte-Carlo at Masters 1000 level last season, so this should be within his ability range.

Lajovic looked in decent form last week in Rome after falling early in quicker conditions at altitude in Kitzbuhel and his draw in Hamburg this week looks decent.

He should have the beating of Adrian Mannarino in slow conditions on clay (he’s beaten Mannarino twice on hard courts), while Lajovic also has a 3-0 career series lead over the out of form Karen Khachanov, too.

Lajovic has never faced Jan-Lennard Struff on clay, but Struff was poor last week in Rome and in any case Struff has a weak record playing at home, with a 17-25 win/loss mark and only once twice in 25 tournaments in Germany has Struff made a semi final (no further).

Dan Evans and Taylor Fritz don’t appeal in these conditions, so with Tsitsipas readily opposable on his Rome showing the other one of interest in the bottom half of the draw is qualifier Pablo Cuevas.

The veteran clay courter beat Gilles Simon (Simon got back in the draw as a lucky loser) and Kevin Krawietz to reach the main draw and he’s not quite the player he was at 34 years old, but a draw against Taylor Fritz in round one is winnable and it would be no great stretch to see him beat Tsitsipas as well, based on the Greek’s level last week in Rome.

When Tsitsipas lost an heartbreaker to Stan Wawrinka at the French Open last season he took a long time to get over it, losing to Nicolas Jarry on grass, Thomas Fabbiano at Wimbledon, and then five straight losses after reaching the Washington semis, so Tsitsipas has been known to be someone that lets a painful defeat linger.
 

Conclusion
 

Paire will either be a blowout or he could turn up in the right frame of mind this week and after having a strop due to the scheduling last week he may have had time to knuckle down and practise on the clay, in which case I don't mind risking half a point on him at 50-1 the week ahead of a major. 

I'll add Garin to the portfolio in the hope that he can recover his form from earlier in the season and 30-1 is a fair enough price about that happening, while 70-1 is a backable price about Cuevas in these slow conditions, where he made the final as recently as 2016 (he lost to Thiem here last year and eventual champ Basilashvili in 2018). 

Lajovic shoukd enjoy these conditions and he completes the portfolio at 33-1.
 

Best Bets

0.5 points win Paire to win Hamburg at 71.0
0.5 points win Lajovic to win Hamburg at 34.0
0.5 points win Garin to win Hamburg at 31.0
0.5 points win Cuevas to win Hamburg at 71.0