A mouth-watering rematch, three years in the making, headlines the UFC’s second numbered event of the year this weekend, when middleweight king Israel Adesanya defends his crown against former champion Robert Whittaker.

Whilst boxing limps from one rematch clause and step-aside purse bid fiasco to another, back inside the Octagon it’s business as usual with the best fighting the best month after month.

Whittaker lost the 185lb belt to Adesanya in October 2019, knocked out in the second round in his first title defence. But he’s climbed back into top contention by cleaning out three ranked opponents in succession since.

The 31-year-old Sydneysider looked better than ever in grinding out unanimous points decisions over Darren Till, Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum, putting behind him a period of turmoil in his professional and personal life.

Whittaker spoke openly about needing to readdress his work-life balance after losing the belt. Whilst his title campaign was also overshadowed by first a staph infection in his stomach, then emergency surgery on an abdominal hernia and a collapsed bowel.

Unsurprisingly, he looked out of sorts against Adesanya. Impatient and impulsive, his blitzkrieg approach played into the hands of counter-striking Kiwi, who dropped Whittaker in the opening round before finishing the job minutes later.

The form the challenger has shown since suggests we will get a far more measured and technical approach from him in Houston, Texas in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Adesanya has also been on a journey since becoming champ. Successful title defences against Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori were intersected by the first loss of his MMA career, when he dared to be great and challenged for light-heavyweight gold last March.

Jan Blachowicz utilised to his size and strength to grapple Izzy to the mat and negate his creative striking game to cruise to a one-sided points victory. But back at 185lb, the 31-year-old has so far proven untouchable.

With 15 knockouts in 21 career wins, Adesanya is one of the best fighters on the planet. The former boxer and kickboxer has some of the most intelligent and creative striking arsenals in combat sports.

In their first fight, Whittaker tried to take the fight to Adesanya but was comprehensively outgunned. He can’t and won’t make that mistake again.

Blachowicz’s gameplan suggests a similarly grapple-heavy approach from Whittaker is most likely, especially as he’s a former Australian national wrestling champion who even qualified for the 2018 Commonwealth Games.

But he is 5-foot-11, not 6-foot-2 like the Pole, so the physical advantages are actually back in favour of the 6-foot-4 champion. Patient pressure is the key for Whittaker. He has to stay switched on for 25 minutes and mix up combination striking with well-timed takedowns.

Adesanya, meanwhile, will want to make a statement. He’s effectively lapping his weight division now and with desires on top spot in the pound-for-pound debate, he must show the levels between himself and his #1 contender.

I just can’t see a repeat of the first fight. But picking a winner is tough. Whittaker can win rounds ugly and likely has the more accomplished MMA skillset. But Adesanya finds a way to win and it’s usually in spectacular fashion.

TIP: Adesanya by TKO or Whittaker on Points

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