A lot can change in 12 months. This time last year Wyndham Clark was in the middle of a run of consistency that would eventually see him make 16 cuts in a row, a run that saw him regularly contend for a breakthrough at the highest level.

And yet victory repeatedly eluded him. Indeed, ahead of last May, Clark had entered the weekend in the top five nine times on the PGA Tour and he’d never once improved his position on the leaderboard. His plan was two-fold. On the one hand, he worked hard on his mental game. On the other, he knew that he needed to start holing putts. “The low point? I would say the low point was actually here last year,” he said yesterday. “I played Bay Hill, here (TPC Sawgrass) and Innisbrook. I hit it fantastic. I think I was top 10 for ball striking in every round. But my putting was terrible.”

Twelve months on he’s carded two rounds of 65 to claim a four-shot halfway lead in the 2024 PLAYERS Championship on 14-under 130 and, what’s more, he leads the putting stats gaining very nearly eight strokes on the field.

The game-changer is a new putter – an Odyssey Jailbird – which he added to his bag after the first round at Innisbrook last March. He finished fifth that week and in May he finally turned around his irritating weekend trend: he started Saturday in a share of the lead at the Wells Fargo Championship, he ended Sunday a PGA Tour winner.

A month later he was a major championship winner, claiming the US Open at LA CC, and a sensational round of 60 helped him win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. Last week at Bay Hill he was again tied for the halfway lead before dropping back into second, unable to make a dent in Scottie Scheffler’s power game.

After witnessing Scheffler marry a hot putter with his typically sensational long game Clark suggested that the combination was potentially “borderline unfair” but his response was perfect: rather than be cowed by the challenge he has risen to it. “He’s pushed me to be better and I’m trying to catch him,” he said last night. “I owe a lot of my good golf of late to him.”

In fact, Clark is replicating Scheffler’s magic of last week because in hitting at least 15 greens and gaining three strokes on the field with his putter in both rounds, statistician Justin Ray reports that he is the first man in the Shotlink stats era (which goes back to 2003) to achieve that feat in consecutive rounds and only Sergio Garcia has also done it in two rounds.

Can he maintain the pace? Two factors might make you wary of plunging in on him at 13/8. The first is that only 40% of 36-hole four-shot leaders have completed victory in the last 15 years on the PGA Tour. The second is that TPC Sawgrass is the type of test where one error can very quickly lead to two or three. We might perhaps add a third factor: Clark is playing so well right now that some sort of regression to mean has to be a possibility. How will he cope when a few putts don’t drop or he misses a few more greens?

Who can pounce? Xander Schauffele and Nick Taylor share second on 10-under. The former has been second at TPC Sawgrass and the latter is a two-time winner in the last 12 months. In a share of fourth, a further shot back, are Matt Fitzpatrick and Maverick McNealy. The Englishman has just one top 40 (ninth in 2021) in seven visits to Sawgrass, the American is on track to land his first at the fourth try. In a share of sixth on 8-under are the column’s pre-event pick Tom Hoge, the German rookie Matti Schmid, Corey Conners and Scheffler.

The World No. 1 remains brilliant tee to green and solid enough with the putter but he needed treatment on a neck problem during the second round. If the physios work their magic he will surely be a weekend contender. It the tweak flares up, it could prove crucial.

The numbers

Seven of the last 30 winners were not in the top 10 at this stage of the tournament but all of them were in the top 25. Given Clark’s advantage it may be more instructive to think of strokes and Justin Thomas (in 2021) and Tim Clark (in 2010) have mounted the biggest comebacks, emerging from seven blows back. If Clark were to falter that would suggest everyone currently 7-under and T10th – three shots off second – would have a chance.

And where do genuine contenders need to be by the end of the third round? All 30 of those most recent winners were either at least tied fifth or were within three strokes of the lead. Clark is aiming to become the eighth wire-to-wire winner in the last three decades.

To the picks.

Xander Schauffele to beat Wyndham Clark in round three at 5/6

Let’s keep this simple. Clark might have wobbles (and he also might not) but there’s a good chance that he will struggle to maintain the giddy pace of Thursday and Friday so Schauffele’s reliability could mop up the third round spoils. All four of his weekend rounds at Sawgrass have been under-par and three of them were in the 60s.

CT Pan – each way at 90/1

Taiwain’s CT Pan has won at the Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town and, as discussed in the preview, form on other Dye creations is a good pointer for this week. He’s also flying from tee to green – another tick. He was third three starts ago and this is a fourth cut made in a row which is about as consistent as he ever gets. He can plot his way into the top four and maybe even look to pounce if something goes wrong for Clark.