As seems compulsory, Croatia have again gone into a major competition blessed with a sumptuous midfield who have probably never had three consecutive touches of a football in their lives. Racking up close to 3000 passes in Qatar, the Chequered Ones have once more fulfilled their brief as pass-masters, and by reaching their third World Cup semi-final in modern times they have once more surpassed all expectations.

Surely now they can no longer be typecast as tournament ‘dark horses’. Surely now it has to be acknowledged that this country – with a population roughly the same as Moldova – routinely produces squads of thoroughbreds.

Yet on this occasion, it is not the aging pass-masters of Luka Modric and Marcelo Brozović who have stood out, even if both have played their parts, and naturally been impactful. It is their gnarly, no-nonsense defence that have navigated a path to the last four.

In nets, Dominik Livakovic has been heroic. Ahead of him, Dejan Lovren has rolled back the years. Alongside the veteran stopper, Josko Gvardiol has been as accomplished as he is fearsome, and may just be the best young centre-back in the world right now at the age of 21.

Croatia have only scored six times to date and have only won one game over the course of 90 minutes. But by conceding every 170 minutes, here they are, mainstays at the biggest party around.

Ivan Perisic has assisted twice in Qatar and four times for Spurs this season. He is 5/1 to assist anytime against Argentina.

Zlatko Dalic’s men won’t be unduly daunted by the prospect of facing Argentina, not after overcoming Brazil in the previous round, and not with memories still fresh of their 3-0 triumph over La Albiceleste in Russia ’18.

It feels exceedingly unlikely however, that such a scoreline can be repeated in Lusail, what with Lionel Messi doing Lionel Messi things twice a week.

The most fouled player in Qatar has created a tournament high of 14 chances and is averaging 2.8 key passes per game. Driven by a sense of destiny, arguably the greatest player to ever lace up a pair of boots boasts four goals, two assists, and has taken on 4.8 shots per match. That singlehandedly amounts to 46.1% of Croatia’s total tally.

Should he score on Tuesday evening he will become Argentina’s most prolific World Cup goalscorer, but even if that narrative feels fated for the final, there are other attacking threats to consider, all of whom have brought their A-game to the Middle East.

Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister has amassed better passing stats than Messi in the offensive third, which in itself is quite a feat. Julian Alvarez meanwhile is proving to be a persistent menace, converting twice from five attempts on target.

Argentina have scored first in each of their games to date. That’s the upside. The downside is that all five of their goals conceded have come in the second period.

Messi to take on over 3.5 shots and Argentina to win in normal time is 43/20 as a Bet Builder.

Switching our attention to Al Khor, a seriously unfancied side have reached a World Cup semi-final for the first time in two decades, but the sacrifices made in doing so have been severe and surely now Morocco’s adventure comes to an end. Surely this seismic scrap will be their final.

The defensive fortitude of the Atlas Lions in 2022 has been nothing less than extraordinary, conceding just once in their last 15 hours of international football, but if losing Nayef Aguerd was negotiable, being further deprived of Romain Saiss leaves Walid Regragui minus both of his outstanding centre-backs, a deficit too far. There are also reports that left-back Noussair Mazraoui is struggling with a virus, though he is expected to feature.

Granted, some of their formidable parsimony at the back is systemic, less down to individuals, and this was illustrated well when Jawad El Yamiq stepped in against Portugal and did superbly. It’s also pertinent that Morocco’s makeshift defence on Wednesday will be protected by Sofyan Amrabat, the best performing number six throughout the tournament.

But if the North Africans deserve all of the credit for their three shock upsets to get to this point, it additionally needs highlighting that Spain were woefully shy of a cutting edge up front. France possess Kylian Mbappe, who has the Golden Boot in his nostrils and Messi’s GOAT status in his sights. In the box, Giroud forever loiters, the arch poacher that he is.

As for Portugal, they lacked that cast-iron mentality that keeps panic at bay. By contrast, France have the mind-set of reigning world champions that affords them patience. Fifteen of their last 20 international goals have been scored in second halves.

In their group win over Belgium, the well-organised underdogs encountered a side out of synch; disjointed. Dider Deschamps has crafted a Gallic machine.

Casting all sentimentality aside it is France who should be strongly fancied to prevail, though it would be entirely remiss to discount Morocco’s time-served resilience, a defensive set-up that relies on counter attacks and thereby leads – invariably – to low-scoring affairs. Only two of their last 18 contests have produced more than three goals.

A multi-bet exact score of 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, or 1-2 offers up 2/1.

Accumulating all of this together brings us to a tempting bet builder across both semis. Let’s go conservative for the first game to retain interest in the second.

BTTS and over 3.5 total offsides for Argentina vs. Croatia, plus under 2.5 total goals for France vs. Morocco is available at 27/5.

*odds may fluctuate