The top two have their place confirmed. Tottenham Hotspur have snuck in through the Europa League back door.
That leaves five sides fighting for the final three Premier League spots for next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Five sides who will all count themselves a little fortunate that England has earned an extra slot in the competition in 2025-26 through strong European performances this campaign.
There are four games on Sunday that will decide who finishes between 3rd and 5th. Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest are all vying for those precious places.
Here’s how Opta predicts the final top seven will, most likely, look like:
After their win over Bournemouth on Tuesday, Man City look all but safe for a place in next season’s Champions League, given a 96.9% chance of finishing in the top five.
For them to realistically finish 6th (7th now mathematically impossible), they would have to lose to Fulham while each of Newcastle (v Everton), Chelsea (v Forest), and Aston Villa (v Man Utd) all win.
And Fulham are not a side that the Citizens lose to often. The Cottagers’ last Premier League win over Man City was in April 2009, while the Sky Blues have won 14 successive league matches against them since 2012.
That’s the joint-longest winning run any side has ever had against another in the Premier League.
So, with Man City looking a sure bet, what of the other contenders?
Next most likely for a top five finish are Newcastle, given an 82.7% chance by Opta’s supercomputer.
That’s because Opta give them a 67.5% chance of beating Everton on the final day, which, given their goal difference, would guarantee them a top five finish.
Should Nottingham Forest and Chelsea draw their match against one another, Newcastle would themselves then only need to draw to be assured of qualification.
The Magpies’ home form is electric. They have won nine of their last 11 league games at St. James’ Park, including their last six in a row. It’s tough to see an Everton side with nothing to play for, emotionally drained after their Goodison Park farewell last weekend, doing enough to stop Newcastle getting what they need on Sunday.
Chelsea are rated next most likely for a top five finish by Opta, but we’ll save them and Nottingham Forest for last since they face one another on the final day.
Aston Villa then. Opta have Unai Emery’s side with a 42.6% chance of qualifying for the Champions League for a second successive season.
Opta’s supercomputer gives them a staggeringly high 51.8% chance of winning at Old Trafford against Europa League runners up Man Utd, such has been the Red Devils’ league struggles this campaign.
Without a doubt, Villa are the form team in the Premier League right now. They have won eight of their last nine league games (L1), topping the table if you go from the start of March.
However, as they start the day in sixth, it’s not just a win that they need on Sunday. They would also require either Man City to lose, or one of Newcastle or Chelsea to fail to win too. A draw would also be enough if Newcastle lost to Everton, but as we’ve established, Opta see that as unlikely. And that’s why they have less than a 50% chance of a top five spot.
And so, to the biggest game of MD38 this season. Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea.
Opta make the Blues favourites for this one, giving them a 44.1% chance of victory to Forest’s 31.0%. A draw is rated at a 24.9% chance.
As such, Chelsea have a 57.4% chance of finishing in the top five – a win would guarantee that for them – while Forest have just a 20.4% likelihood.
For Forest to qualify, they must win and then hope one of Newcastle or Aston Villa don’t. It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have won just two of their last seven league games coming into the final day – by far the poorest form of our five contenders. Chelsea, by contrast, have won four of their last five in the league. That difference in form is a huge factor as to why Opta have the London side as favourites for the match.
However, three of the five Premier League meetings between these two since Forest’s promotion in 2022 have been drawn (one win each in the other two). Another stalemate here, coupled with a Villa win at Old Trafford, would see both miss out on Europe’s premier competition, and would instead place Chelsea in the Europa League, and Forest in the Conference League for 2025-26.
As such, it’s a game both sides really must win. It’s their equivalent of Man Utd and Spurs’ Europa League final on Wednesday, minus a trophy at the end of it. The stakes are huge.
Five teams.
Four matches.
Three places.
Two will miss out.
One huge final day of 2024-25.
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