TRYING to make sense of the different permutations and motivations as groups E and F conclude this Wednesday can get very confusing very quickly. Delve a little too deep and your When Saturday Comes wallchart becomes cluttered with string and your brain begins to melt.
All that can be determined for sure is that all eight nations involved go into their games knowing that victory will secure them passage to the knockouts. Five can stomach a draw while even a loss would see France or Sweden definitely survive in the competition. For three sides, their third – and maybe final – fixture at this summer’s Euros amounts to win or bust.
Poland is one of the trio with it all to do and for their sake let’s hope they at least commit to a positive showing against group E leaders Sweden in Saint Petersburg. Coming into this summer the Eagles were said to be flying once again under new coach Paulo Sousa but by every conceivable metric they have flattered to deceive. They have attempted fewer passes than North Macedonia. They have put together seven fewer attacks than tournament flops Turkey. Up front, one of the most phenomenal strikers in the modern age feeds off scraps.
Greater assistance must be given to Robert Lewandowski here as the prosaic Poles come up against stubborn and solid opponents who will be perfectly content to grind out a bore-draw. Sweden have only averaged 1.2 goals in their last 15 games while they have conceded just once in ten and a half hours of international football.
Robert Lewandowski scores his first goal of #Euro2020 to make it 1-1 vs. Spain!
(via @ESPNFC) pic.twitter.com/IfbRtdWuWS
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) June 19, 2021
Well-drilled in a rigid 4-4-2, Janne Andersson’s side will be difficult to break down but ultimately this is a contest that comes down to need. Poland need to win, Sweden do not and there is another consideration too, one that applies to all four fixtures this Wednesday. Seven of the 12 final group games in Euro 2016 ended 0-0 or 1-0 and this strongly intimates that at this stage of the tournament what has to be done, get’s done. Nothing more, nothing less.
Poland are 6-1 to win 1-0 against the stoic Swedes
In the group’s other game Spain are in the surprising position of requiring three late points having been well-fancied beforehand to comfortably progress. It is not just with the benefit of hindsight however that we can claim lots of clues were there illustrating that this was never going to be a cakewalk for Luis Enrique’s side.
In the months leading up to Euro 2020, La Roja relied on three last-gasp goals that prevented their form guide from looking pretty poor, a stunning massacre of Germany notwithstanding. There was also a worrying propensity to draw and stalemates against Sweden and Poland now makes it an astounding ten in their last 20.
Too often wasteful in the final third and overly-cautious – sometimes even sluggish – in possession, all of these flaws have been evident to date. Spain have enjoyed more possession than any other side in the tournament and have accrued 14 shots on target with a penalty to boot. From all this they have scored just once.
Still, they should be backed to see off Slovakia, a side you feel have over-achieved to this point and now may face a day of reckoning. The team ranked 36th in the world have impressively cobbled together three points despite having fewer shots on target than anyone else. The Repre have scored just 19 in their most recent 15 fixtures and on only three occasions has a game been decided – for or against – by more than a single goal. They are, in essence, a poor man’s Sweden.
MORENO (6.5) vs SLK
Ownership: 9%
Moreno was a surprise inclusion ahead of Ferran Torres in MD2 and, despite his penalty miss, looked dangerous enough to keep his spot in a must-win game for Spain. Despite his lack for starts, he has 5 goals and 5 assists in 13 caps pic.twitter.com/tuZzUikOE4
— Fantasy JQ (@FPL_JQ) June 20, 2021
Which is apt because here you suspect they will attempt to replicate the Swede’s brilliant nullification of Spain in their opening game. Sadly, they will likely fail.
It’s time for Gerard Moreno to finally shine. Back the Villarreal hit-man to score anytime and combine in a Bet Builder with over 2.5 goals at a tempting 31/20
When all is said and done in Group E, attention turns to the tournament’s much-trumpeted ‘group of death’ that in reality was never going to be anything of the sort. Rather, three lions have been put in a cage with a zebra for a short spell.
It is to Hungary’s immense credit that they remain very much alive in the group after two feeds but now they must depart the inspiring environs of Budapest and head to Munich, to face a rejuvenated Germany who are in real danger of becoming the most entertaining side to watch across the competition.
Even when everything clicks, as it did so spectacularly against Portugal, Joachim Low’s side still are susceptible to conceding cheap goals and that will no doubt be costly further down the road. Here though, if Hungary show their true stripes after being atypically defiant v France, it is a fluid German attack that must be focused on.
I stopped watching Portugal v Germany for 10 mins & missed two goals pic.twitter.com/jxYo7rkPAs
— 210.chumapi (@CortezMarvyn) June 19, 2021
In the past two years, 24% of Die Mannschaft’s goals have arrived inside the opening 20 minutes so we can expect an early mauling. In Kai Havertz meanwhile, they possess a tremendous talent who at 3/1 is a viable frontrunner to win the Best Young Player of the Tournament. Since announcing himself on the international scene back in 2018, the Chelsea schemer has been directly involved in a goal every 69 minutes.
The 22-year-old is 8/5 to give an assist
A 3-0 romp for the Germans feels a touch generous at 6/1 particularly if they stay true to type and convert early
Lastly, France versus Portugal was widely tipped to be the must-watch game from the group stage so let’s hope it lives up to its billing.
Defeat for a selecao will very likely see them exit the competition so negating France’s fearsome front three is paramount. A draw will be fine.
It should concern Fernando Santos therefore how easily and successfully Germany targeted their weak spots down the defensive flanks at the weekend and this thought leads us to Kylian Mbappe who attempted six shots against Hungary, his most when wearing les bleu. It will click soon for the PSG superstar. Why not here?
Elsewhere, France may have disappointed thus far but their stats and pedigree remain imperious. Should they take the lead in Budapest it’s worth considering that the last time they lost from a winning position was 43 matches ago while across the past two years they have conceded a goal every 135 minutes. As regards to his illustrious Euro C.V. Cristiano Ronaldo may well have saved the most difficult for last.
France to win at 5/4 stands out but they have not been bossing possession in their usual vein these past couple of weeks. Under 51.5% total ball possession acts as a good companion bet.
