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North London Derby

IT’s time to dismantle all of the negative tropes surrounding Arsenal and how they typically fare down the final straight. The ones that have them pegged as bottle-merchants and naïve. Too reliant on plan A and too emotional. Just too.

Store them away in a box somewhere or use them for firewood. They’re not needed anymore.

The multitude of smirks breaking out from the Gunners’ critics was almost palpable when Mikel Arteta’s men fluffed their lines at home to Aston Villa a week last Sunday. It was happening again. Arsenal were undoing nine months of exemplary work by self-combusting in April.

And this suspicion only grew when they were edged out of the Champions League in Munich three days later.

A tricky test at Molineux therefore was accompanied by an extra layer of pressure because Arsenal were no longer simply competing with Manchester City and Liverpool in a title race, but with their former selves. Their supposed DNA.

An impressive, if at times tentative, victory in the Midlands was the perfect response to that emerging narrative and if the display quietened their seasoned doubters they were rendered speechless on Tuesday evening when Chelsea were comprehensively out-classed and deconstructed at the Emirates.

Granted, the hosts allowed much of the first period to be played out as a game of basketball, but the second half was pure Arsenal, all control and quick, dove-tailed movement in the final third, movement that left the Blues backline misshapen.

Chelsea similarly could no linger pose any meaningful questions at the other end, in part due to Arteta being able to call upon Thomas Partey for only his fourth start of the season. The Ghanaian’s relentless endeavour and closing off of passing lanes affords even greater insurance to a midfield already made secure by Declan Rice.

Arsenal have picked up the second fewest number of cautions this season and won the third most corners. Tottenham most cards and Arsenal most corners is a sensible shout at 5/4  

It helped Arsenal’s cause too that Martin Odegaard was at his creative best and more on him very shortly. For now, suffice to say that when the Norwegian is in full flow Arsenal have the capacity to be magnificent.

This was a confident, fluid performance that could easily have been witnessed in August, October or January, but crucially was exhibited with the finish line in sight and increasingly it appears that Arsenal are going to end their campaign in the same manner they started it: scoring liberally and remaining stingy at the back.

Their dismissal of Chelsea was the 15th time they have won to nil in 2023/24, their fourth time in five games.  

The Gunners have averaged 3.4 away goals in 2024. Spurs have converted 2.1 at home in that period. Moreover, three of the last five North London Derbies have produced four goals. Over 3.5 goals at 6/5 is a must

All of which doesn’t exactly bode well for Tottenham ahead of this Sunday’s 195th North London Derby, even if they have recent history on their side. Surprisingly, Arsenal have only won once away to their archest rivals in the last decade, though even this defeat can be viewed as a positive for Spurs as that was the last time they failed to score at home.

Since then they have converted in their stadium on 25 consecutive occasions in the league.

Moreover, Son Heung-min boasts eight goal involvements in his last eight meetings with Arsenal and – when deployed centrally at least – the Korean forward has been consistently productive this term, notching 12 from 19. With Richarlison a big doubt, Son will likely feature as Tottenham’s number nine again here.

Yet, trumping such positives is the identity crisis that has taken hold among the Spurs fan-base since their team’s last outing, a demoralizing 4-0 loss in the North-East a fortnight ago.

Is Ange Postecoglou’s uncompromising mandate to play attacking football with a high defensive line wholly a good thing given the results it has harvested? Or is there a middle ground that should be explored, especially when facing sides ruthless on the counter?

Discipline will be a factor this weekend, with their last 10 meetings producing 5 cards per 90 and four dismissals. 11/4 says there is another red card brandished

Certainly their drubbing against Newcastle felt like a 90-minute ambush, one that exposed the flaws inherent in Postecoglou’s singular objective.

Spurs had 73% of the possession at St James Park but only managed to carve out one big chance as Newcastle’s back five shepherded Son and co into safe waters, before hitting them time and again on the break.

It felt like four sucker punches but of the oddest kind, ones that has a boxer try various combinations to little effect, only to then jut their jaw out almost willingly.

Exacerbating Tottenham’s problems going into this crunch encounter meanwhile is the loss of Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie. Both full-backs have been integral to Postecoglou’s masterplan this season.

Arsenal won’t play with five at the back this weekend, but will have Partey to drop deep when necessary. Furthermore, when a rearguard that has conceded only 0.7 goals per 90 this term has dealt with whatever Spurs throws at them they have Leandro Trussard and Bukayo Saka to hare into vacated acres, the former lethal of late with three in four, the latter devastating on the road with eight goal involvements in his last eight awaydays.

They have too in-form Kai Havertz benefiting from clever, penetrating balls conjured into him by Odegaard.

Back Havertz and Saka to each have over 0.5 shots on target at 1/1

As stated earlier, Odegaard was sensational mid-week. The eight chances he created was the most by an Arsenal player for seven seasons while no other player won more duels (8), had more touches, or committed to more passes in the final third.

Even three-quarters of that player on Sunday could single-handedly determine this contest.

Which is, let’s not forget, a North London Derby, and it would be remiss not to highlight what’s at stake, and what the repercussions of that may be, because with a title and top four spot both up for grabs, neither team can afford to settle for a point here.

This undermines the well-worn fact that this is the third most drawn fixture in the top-flight, with 38% of their clashes in the Premier League era ending honours even.

No, it’s the Gunners who are strongly fancied to prevail, and don’t discount the possibility of an early advantage gained either.

Arsenal last trailed at the break way back in late-December and have scored inside 15 minutes more than any other side this term.

Back the Gunners to be ahead at half-time at 13/10


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