MAIDSTONE aside, what a perfectly ordinary FA Cup we’ve had to date.

From the third round proper back in early January to the fifth round late last month, this year’s competition has given us 3.1 goals per game. The average in the Premier League this season is 3.2.

From all the fixtures so far, 34.7% have been away wins. The mean average in football is a little over a third.

And barring the Stones, and their adventures that evoked so many wonderful cliches, there has been scant upsets, the least amount for a good while.

So it is we turn to the last eight and hope for a moment, a memorable clash this competition can hang its hat on in years to come, and inevitably that leads us to Liverpool’s trip to Old Trafford this Sunday.

The last time these sides met in the cup it resulted in a five goal thriller. The last time they butted heads in the league in Manchester the odds were over-turned as Erik Ten Hag’s men surprisingly triumphed. The time before that Liverpool blasted five past their historical foes in their own back yard, and the time before that, four.

Add in a recent 7-0 mauling at Anfield and even if we put the rivalry, history, and meaning of this match-up to one side it’s fair to say that these encounters are rarely ‘perfectly ordinary’. And it has plenty of form for offering up moments.

Mo Salah has contributed more than anyone in this regard. Indeed, the Egyptian striker’s record against United is little short of staggering, scoring 12 times in his last nine meetings. There are also four assists to consider, too.

With 45 minutes under his belt after returning from a hamstring problem and a subsequent complication, United have every reason to fear this bullying to continue at the weekend, especially as they have no specialist left-back to minimize Salah’s constant marauding.

With both Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia out, Ten Hag has deployed Victor Lindelof there in recent weeks and the best we can say about the Swede’s output is that he has struggled admirably well. With a goal scored every 121 minutes this term and a shot accuracy of 61%, Salah could easily run riot.

Back Salah to score anytime at 7/5

As for the hosts, at least they have their own attacking threat returning, or so says Ten Hag who insists Rasmus Hojlund is available for selection. The young Dane indulged in a Salah-esque spree prior to injury, firing eight in eight but with doubts over his fitness he should be given a swerve in the betting for the time being.

The same goes for any thoughts of backing United, flailing and failing to ignite as they are.

Instead a particular scenario appeals, one that feels likely regardless of how United fare at the other end. That Liverpool pepper their opponents with shots and won’t be as wasteful as Everton were last Saturday.

Only Sheffield United and West Ham have faced more shots in the top-flight this season than United and in five of their last six outings they have faced 20+. Liverpool meanwhile are table-toppers for attempts on goal in 2023/24, averaging a formidable 20.07 per 90.

Back over 5.5 shots on target for the visitors at 4/5

If Sunday promises high drama and marquee madness, Saturday lunchtime affords the cup a last chance of an upset, though perhaps we shouldn’t over-state the disparity between Wolves and Coventry.

The Sky Blues have largely been excellent in the Championship this season, responding well to last May’s Play-Off loss by vigorously chasing another shot at it, and this extends to impressive form on the road, losing only three of their last ten away games.

In the cup meanwhile they have been prolific, accruing 15 in three as inferior fare have been brushed aside, and so much of this derives from Mark Robins’ side possessing a forward line of genuine menace, all boasting different strengths.

Ellis Simms, Tatsuhiro Sakamoto and Haji Wright have notched 29 between them in the league alone and of this trio it is the latter who stands out. Drifting in from the left the USMNT international has scored 22% of Coventry’s league haul, five of which have been match-winners.

Moreover, going behind won’t unduly trouble the underdogs, the Sky Blues picking up 18 points from deficits this term, but a concern does lie with Kasey Palmer’s discipline.

The midfielder has been cautioned in two of his last three appearances, picking up seven in the Championship despite being injured for half the campaign.

Regarding Wolves, they are all things to all men right now, as hard to pin down as jelly with a nail, but they do tend to convert at Molineux, only failing to do so on one occasion since February 2023. And frankly and simply put, they are the better team.

Expect Coventry to run them close though.

Back Wolves to win, BTTS and over 2.5 cards for Coventry at 11/2

A similar story could unfold at Stamford Bridge where Championship leaders Leicester take on a revived Chelsea who are starting to show who they could eventually become should their grand project ultimately pay off.

Up front, Nicolas Jackson has two in two, early season doubts about his effectiveness waning fast, while Cole Palmer’s remarkable debut campaign for the Blues continues to scale silly heights, the 21-year-old adding an eleventh goal and an eighth assist to his count in beating Newcastle on Monday evening.

Palmer has now scored in five successive league starts on home soil.

This is exactly the kind of fixture Mauricio Pochettino would have secretly dreaded prior to Christmas but now they should be strongly fancied to prevail. That is not to say however that Leicester – like Coventry – will go quietly.

The Foxes may have hit a wobble in recent weeks but they have commendably shared their goal-scoring around. All seven of their cup goals have been converted by different players.

Furthermore, they have the second best chance conversion rate in the second tier.

They’re great front-runners too, losing only twice from the 31 times they have held an advantage, but if we’re seeking value it’s tempting to go with the visitors having the best of the second half.

No Championship side have scored more often after the break while 11 of the 19 goals Chelsea have conceded in 2024 have come in the second period.

Back the Foxes to win the second half at a generous 24/5

Lastly, there is Manchester City’s hosting of Newcastle and it is downright odd that a game featuring two Champions League participants feels like the most straightforward of the quartet.

The Magpies are in dire form, a situation not helped by a propensity to hemorrhage goals at the back. A concession of 2.6 per 90 in their last ten league outings has sent Eddie Howe’s side sliding down to mid-table, all hopes of another top four spot extinguished.

Here they are without Anthony Gordon who would at least partly compensate for their defensive woes, the winger hobbling off at the Bridge this week.

Moreover, there is Newcastle’s terrible record at the Etihad to consider, losing on their last nine visits there, to an aggregate scoreline of 31-3. They have failed to score in East Manchester in eight and a half hours.

Combine all this with City’s redoubtable unbeaten streak of 18 games unbeaten across all comps – scoring three-plus goals in exactly half of them – and there is only one realistic avenue to explore.

Back over 2.5 goals for the hosts at 17/20

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