MOST major sporting events lead to a conflict of interests when betting, with our heads saying one thing and our hearts another.

Listen too closely to the latter and we find ourselves patriotically backing a tennis player or a football team who realistically were never going to progress past the quarter finals. Go solely with cold, hard logic and there is always a chance of being emotionally compromised as the tournament gets to the business end and you’re the only person in a pub otherwise bedecked in St George flags, silently cheering on Germany.

Thankfully, this is not a concern as Sarina Wiegman’s England side kick-off this summer’s Euros on Wednesday evening at Old Trafford, and that’s because the Lionesses have every chance of going all the way. They are legitimately a great shout and better yet, they’re reasonably priced too.

Four-to-one. That’s what is being offered up for a team that has a cornucopia of factors in their favour, not least that for every step of their journey they will be cheered on by a sell-out partisan crowd. Furthermore, having undergone a dramatic overhaul since Wiegman took the reins in the autumn of 2021, England are unbeaten in 14, scoring a staggering six goals on average per game. In Manchester City’s Lauren Hemp they have a contender to run away with the player of the tournament.

So, should you be of English persuasion, going with both your heart and your head here makes sense. The Lionesses are strongly fancied for several good reasons and frankly the only detectable negatives are that Wiegman – who won this tournament in 2017 with the Netherlands – has yet to definitively nail her strongest XI, while in recent months captain Leah Williamson and co have not been properly tested.

Compared to the doubts that surrounds others, these are relatively minor quibbles.

And yet, sorry to complicate matters, but Spain are only fractionally shorter odds than England and by every conceivable metric that feels wrong. By every conceivable metric there should be a sizable gap when we acknowledge that La Roja are unbeaten in 22, having coasted through their qualifying campaign, and having similarly guaranteed their place in next year’s World Cup at a canter.

More so, this is a side heavily populated by Barcelona Femeni’s all-conquering and generational Champions League finalists three-times over in recent seasons, a contingent that includes Alexia Putellas, the present Ballon d’Or recipient.

Granted, Spain have flattered to deceive in previous tournaments and yes, a phenomenal club side doesn’t always transfer to a phenomenal international side but consider this: If La Roja show up in the coming weeks and be who they can be, then Jorge Vilda’s team are a whole other level above England. They can be a whole other level above everyone.

Put patriotism to one side and back Spain to win the Women’s Euro 2022 at 7/2

If there is a slight question mark over the favourites, it’s because they’ve been housed in a ‘group of death’ though most likely that will impact the other teams involved, less so Spain.

Germany may have won a remarkable eight of the previous ten Women’s Euro Championships dating back to the Eighties but in current times they are an unpredictable collective weakened by key injuries. Denmark, meanwhile, are a cohesive unit enlivened by a talented group of young players and elevated further by the presence of Pernille Harder, their captain and all-time record goal-scorer.

It is always a risky proposition predicting a group’s final order before a ball has been kicked but if we assume Spain will top Group B and Finland will come last, that places a good deal of emphasis on Denmark’s opening fixture against Germany, a game incidentally the Scandinavians are 22/5 to win, which is a terrific price. Should they duly finish runner-up they will then likely face England or Norway in the quarters.

Denmark are a tempting 3/1 to be eliminated at the last eight stage.

And so to the leading goal-scorer market, one that has several convincing candidates but isn’t that always the way.

In serious contention for the Golden Boot is Arsenal’s Vivianne Miedema, who has notched 92 goals in 108 appearances for the Netherlands. It’s worth noting that during last year’s Olympics, the 25-year-old bagged eight in the group stage alone and spearheading an attack-minded side, she has to be in the running.

So too is PSG ace Marie-Antoinette Katoto though counting against the French goal-machine is the disharmony that is once again destabilising her nation’s hopes. With a divisive coach nicknamed ‘Cocovirus’ who is immensely unpopular with half the team don’t be surprised if France self-combust meaning Katoto doesn’t get enough games to top the pile.

As for a long-shot, Sweden’s Stina Blackstenius is well worth contemplating, especially as Blagult have a fairly straightforward group to navigate with possibly Italy to face in the last eight. Since joining Arsenal in January, Blackstenius has synched brilliantly with Miedema, scoring 0.85 goals per 90 and as pertinently she is a forward who relishes playing for her country, benefiting from their direct style. With Sweden quietly tipped to go deep, all things considered, her odds are far too generous to overlook.

Back Blackstenius to win the Golden Boot at 20/1.

With an abundance of attacking prowess right across the competition this year’s harvest of goals could well be a record haul and creating a small but significant volume of these we can expect to see the likes of Putellas and Norway’s Guro Reiten coming to the fore. Reiten by the way is a huge 33/1 to give most assists and that’s worth a couple of quid of anyone’s money.

It is England’s Beth Mead however who most stands out in this regard, the Gunner creating a highly impressive 2.91 chances per 90 last term in the WSL and finishing the campaign as the league’s joint-top assist-maker. This was anything but an outlier as Mead holds a WSL record for most assists in a single season.

Back Mead to be this Euro’s assist queen at 7/1

We began this preview looking at patriotism and how it can directly influence our betting choices. Let’s end by going completely the other way.

Because if England’s Lionesses initially falter under the weight of expectation put on their shoulders – and if their lack of strong competition this past year does indeed become a factor as they drop points to a half-decent Austrian side this Wednesday – then the odds on Norway topping Group A instantly look enticing.

Up front for the Norwegians, Caroline Graham Hansen and Ada Hegerberg make up a formidable duo, the latter a former Ballon d’Or winner returning from international exile and injury to reimagine her career. Last season for Lyon, Hegeberg scored 10 in 12 starts. Hansen meanwhile is one hell of a support act, elsewhere a key figure in Barcelona’s success.

Take a punt on Norway to top Group A at 13/5