It was barely noticed but last June, as England limbered up for the Euros with a brace of friendlies against Austria and Romania, a curveball was thrown regarding Gareth Southgate’s selection process.

Previously, ahead of any double-header friendlies, the Three Lions gaffer had approached them in the same straightforward manner, picking his strongest eleven for the first fixture, then fielding his shadow-team for the second. Only last summer he deviated from this strategy, mixing and matching established first-teamers with their understudies for both games. A pair of 1-0 victories presumably told Southgate a lot but the rest of us learned very little.

How much of this departure was down to injuries to key personnel and the recentness of the Champions League final is open to conjecture but should he continue in this vein against Switzerland and Ivory Coast in the coming days this would present us with a problem as we grope for any certainty.

Because it matters a good deal whether it’s Harry Kane or Ollie Watkins who features against Switzerland with the Swiss so well-drilled and parsimonious at the back. Since their successful Euro campaign had them reach the quarter final stage last summer, Murat Yakin’s side have played a friendly and six World Cup qualifiers and conceded only twice.

It matters also if Southgate experiments versus a side ranked 14^th in the world or stays with his preferred 3-4-2-1 containing his tried and trusted lieutenants because England’s opponents have enterprising players who can do serious damage versus periphery talent adapting to a trialed system. Steven Zuber is fit again and the wideman boasts two goals and seven assists in his last ten international outings. Noah Okafor meanwhile, represents the nation’s future and in his two starts to date the Red Bull Salzburg attacker has already notched an assist and goal.

The visitors will be hard to break down this weekend so an exact winning margin of 1 for England is decent value at 47/20

If not knowing who Southgate will turn to at Wembley this Saturday – and in what set-up – puts us at a disadvantage, there is an additional factor that casts us in the dark. Since England last played way back in November there have been 178 Premier League fixtures and the circumstances around the Three Lions’ 10-0 decimation of San Marino barely have any relevance here. Players have since come into form or lost their way.

New faces such as Crystal Palace’s talented pair Tyrick Mitchell and Marc Guehi have rose to prominence, no longer considered bright prospects but the proven real deal. New faces back then such as Conor Gallagher and Emile Smith Rowe now feel like obvious choices for Gareth Southgate’s World Cup squad announced this autumn. In this context of so much change is it significant that England are unbeaten since losing their Euro final to Italy and all with a remarkable aggregate score-line of 30-2?

The Three Lions have kept 15 clean sheets in their last 20 matches. England winning to nil therefore is tempting at 7/4

The correct answer is yes, it is, but with some big caveats, namely that England’s opponents post-Italy has all been – Poland aside – minnows incapable of putting up much resistance. Still, we go into this week’s international break playing catch-up to an extent, having to make do with wait and see.

Which makes it all the more necessary to focus on what we do know, or more accurately, what our instincts tell us to be most likely.

We ‘know’ that Southgate will plump for three at the back because here is a man not shy of picking an abundance of full-backs yet even before the withdrawals of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James, England looked light in these departments. Mitchell and Kyle Walker-Peters have been drafted in and will hopefully get some minutes, but this is a squad with three at the back all over it, especially against Ivory Coast and that’s even with Wilfried Zaha and Nicolas Pepe offering familiar threats down the flanks.

We ‘know’ too that Southgate will pick his strongest eleven against Switzerland simply because it makes sense to. After three months’ absence it is crucial that momentum is immediately regained, and the England boss will take as few risks as possible to ensure that happens against a very good side who have twice held Italy to draws in the last six months. It is next Tuesday when we can expect to see a few tweaks made. A debutant perhaps offered a chance to impress. For the four Ws of Walker-Peters, White, Ward-Prowse, and Watkins to be thrown into the fray.

An extension of this assumption is that Harry Kane starts against the Swiss, a striker who has recently rediscovered an unerring goal-scoring knack for his club that never really went away for his country for all the hysteria about a supposed drought during the Euro group stage. The Spurs hit-man has fired home a remarkable 14 in his last ten England displays.

Back Kane to find the net again as his renaissance continues

Looking for potential negatives, we also know in our heart of hearts that starting with Harry Maguire right now is a gamble even if we accept that he typically raises his game in an England jersey. It feels an eternity ago since the beleaguered Manchester United defender scored in both November fixtures, and we all recall his defiant celebration, as if scoring past Albania was redemption enough for a string of sub-par performances in the Premier League. Though Southgate should be commended for his loyalty this is an awfully big week for the 29-year-old.

12 of England’s last 16 goals have been converted before the halftime break. England/England is a great shout at 9/5

ENGLAND v SWITZERLAND – ALL ODDS