WITH Euro 2020 now a week old we can start to take stock of what promises to be a tournament full of goals.

The opening round of fixtures treated us to 2.3 per game and this compares favourably to 1.8 per game at the same stage in 2016. When we factor in the bumper 826 goals from qualifying – a tournament record – we can conclude that many international squads at present are furnished with firepower but are too often let down by susceptible rearguards.

This certainly applies to Germany, a fact that never fails to jolt despite it being a prolonged problem. Going into the competition, Die Mannschaft boasted a prolific return of 54 goals in 20 games courtesy of an impressive roster of attacking talent. Yet routinely they were undone by costly mistakes at the back and what really surprises, given their historical reputation for shrewd game-management, is that commonly these concessions occurred late in games. In the last two years, 40% of the goals in Germany’s against column have been conceded beyond the 70^th minute.

This is an encouraging omen for Portugal as Fernando Santos’ side heads to Munich this Saturday seeking guaranteed progress to the knock-outs. Six of their last ten goals have been converted in the 80^th minute or after and, as we saw against Hungary, this is a team that patiently chips away until a crack appears.

Portugal are 27/10 to score their last goal between the 75^th minute and the end of the second half.

That is not to imply of course that a selecao will have things entirely their own way. Though a victory over Hungary in their final match might be enough to see Germany through as one of the best third-placed finishers their tournament essentially rests on getting something here and, excuse the cliché, but our Teutonic cousins are inherently well-versed in doing enough when they have to. More so, with a bit of composure in the final third against France last Tuesday, Joachim Low’s men could easily have unseated this summer’s favourites and it is unlikely they will be so jittery again.

⚽️ 84' – Raphael Guerreiro
⚽️ 87' – Cristiano Ronaldo
⚽️ 90+ – Cristiano Ronaldo

Hungary thought they'd taken the lead. Ronaldo took that personally…#HUNPOR 0-3 | #EURO2020 | #CR7 pic.twitter.com/rmFeEDEbQp

— Unibet (@unibet) June 15, 2021

Back Serge Gnabry to score anytime at 5/2. The striker will once again be on home turf in Munich and has 13 goals in 20 appearances for his country.

Two hours later, in the evening kick-off, Poland face Spain in Seville and it is difficult not to feel some sympathy for the Poles considering who their opening Group E opponents were.

Going into Euro 2020 every coach, bar a select handful, will have strategically plotted a course to the last 16 by ranking their foes thusly: Team X is the toughest test so let’s see what we can do but losing to them won’t be a disaster. Team Y is a direct rival so avoiding defeat is paramount. Team Z is the weakest link. Three points against them is an absolute must.

Poland played Slovakia, their Team Z, first and lost.

So, where does this leave the Eagles with Spain awaiting, looking to unleash their frustrations after being thwarted by a stubborn Sweden? Most likely, it will result in Paulo Sousa’s side doubling down on caution – though this is not in their nature of late – and very conceivably we might have to endure a repeat of the attack v defence training ground exercise played out last Monday, only this time with Poland having a better outlet than Sweden in Robert Lewandowski.

Exactly how much difference last season’s European Golden Show winner can make single-handed however is questionable and Spain should be fancied here.

After a cagey first 45 expect Morata and co to finally rediscover their scoring boots and a Draw/Spain is 16/5 in the half time/ full time market

Let’s return briefly to the subject of goals and why we can anticipate a fair few flying in this weekend. In the past three Euros the second round of group games have been the highest scoring and there is clear logic to this. Forwards such as Gnabry and Morata have got their aim in. Players making their tournament bow have settled their nerves. Teams now know what is demanded of them.

This is all relevant with France heading to Budapest on Saturday afternoon, well backed to win even if 60,000-plus loud Hungarians intend on making it a grind. Against Germany it was the French midfield that shone, with Rabiot and Pogba both brilliant, but here we can reasonably expect their much-trumpeted front three to catch fire.

Antoine Griezmann is 15/2 to score at least two goals and back him to get off the mark early too. Half of his last eight goals have come inside the opening half an hour.

Sunday brings us Switzerland v Turkey, the latter widely tipped pre-tournament as ‘dark horses’ only to suffer the fourth worst start in a Euros after two games this century. It is telling that Turkish stopper Uğurcan Çakır has had to pull off the most saves so far among his peers in addition to the five goals conceded and that’s hardly a shock considering the state of the defence supposedly protecting him. There is social distancing, then there’s Soyuncu, Ayhan and their respective full-backs who could all benefit from megaphones to communicate with one another. Against Wales, for large tracts of the game, they appeared to be playing for different teams.

Switzerland’s Breel Embolo could well capitalize on such vast swathes of space having put in a Man of the Match performance in their opening fixture and all told the ‘team of no stars’ have fared well to date despite a heavy loss to Italy. Even in their 3-0 reverse the Swiss put together more completed passes than their superior opponents and looked a tidy collective.

Go for the Asian handicap of -0.75 at 9/10 for a narrow Swiss victory.

RAMSEY!!!! After missing multiple sitters, Wales finally break the deadlock! Gareth Bale with a worldie of a pass to set up Aaron Ramsey for the goal. Wales take the lead 1-0 over Turkey in a must-win game!#WAL #TUR #EURO2020
(Video via @ESPNFC)

pic.twitter.com/n9v97Fhsf3

— Geauxing, Geauxing, Gooner Podcast (@GGGoonerPod) June 16, 2021

Which leaves us with the battle to top Group A as Italy take on a Welsh side who are replicating their tremendous over-achievements in 2016. This is being seen as a free hit for Wales and ironically there is a real possibility that finishing runner-up works out best for them with Finland and Russia in the reckoning as potential last 16 opponents.

Now that progress has been secured might Rob Page be tempted to rest key personnel, namely his two Rolls Royce engines in Bale and Ramsey who would both struggle to pass MOTs due to a sustained succession of injuries? If he does, that places even greater emphasis on Italy’s status as pre-match favourites but before we wax lyrical about the Azzurri consider this: Wales have kept ten clean sheets in their last 15 games. Theirs is a very under-rated and well-organized defence.

Still, how can we look past Italy for this one, with Mancini’s machine unbeaten in 29 and buoyed by a ten-game winning streak that has accrued an aggregate score-line of 31-0. Scoring over three goals a game since last October is mightily impressive. Not conceding for 16 hours is mind-blowing.

Like his managerial counterpart, Mancini may well utilize his squad on Sunday, meaning Andrea Belotti and Federico Chiesa will feature up front. The former has scored three in his last four outings, two of which were brief cameos.

Belotti is 19/5 to be the last goal-scorer