THERE have been final-day shoot-outs before to secure a Champions League spot but nothing like this. On Sunday five teams will conclude their long campaigns knowing that a victory will either guarantee continental fare next season, or go a sizable way to help their cause. Only three points separate them. Only three places are up for grabs.

Determining who is most likely to host the elite of Spain, Italy and Germany next autumn and beyond is pretty straightforward after Manchester City’s comfortable win over Bournemouth on Tuesday evening. Boasting superior goal difference to the other four Pep Guardiola’s men have the luxury of requiring only a draw this weekend at Craven Cottage and what an advantage that is amidst all of the pressure and supporter’s nails being bitten to the quick.

Yet it should not be assumed that Fulham will be an easy touch, just because their only remaining objective is finalizing where in mid table they finish. Raul Jimenez is a striker in form, netting last time out as well as winning 11 duels vs Brentford, on the ground and in the air.

Alex Iwobi meanwhile tends to reserve his best performances for West London. Remember his showing against Liverpool six or so weeks back when the winger was nigh-on unplayable, scoring, assisting, and taking on three further shots for good measure?

It’s worth noting that Bournemouth’s best first-half chance on Tuesday, and 96^th minute consolation goal, both came down Iwobi’s side.

To be clear, if the visitors are on it – and they will be, hard-wired as they are for games such as this – then all jeopardy could quickly vanish from this one, especially if they score first for the fifth time in six games.

Moreover, if a highly motivated triumvirate of Haaland, Marmoush and a departing De Bruyne isn’t convincing enough for you then a comprehensive head-to-head record in this fixture should be. City last lost to Fulham way back in 2009 and have won each and every one of their last 17 encounters. In those 17 games they averaged three goals per 90.

Back Jimenez over 0.5 SOT and City over 2.5 goals at 3/1

City then are fancied to attain third spot come Sunday evening, while Newcastle should be backed to snag one of the remaining two.

Their job this weekend is to break down a stubborn, well-organised Everton rearguard, one that has conceded just six times in eight away fixtures since David Moyes stepped back into the breach. Included in that number are visits to Anfield and Stamford Bridge.

Alas, for a Toffees side that has precisely nothing to play for, a hamstring problem for Jarrod Branthwaite hugely exacerbates the absence of James Tarkowski, leaving Moyes with slim pickings at the back.

A centre-back pairing for Jake O’Brien and Michael Keane, encountering sustained and serious examination in front of a ramped-up St James Park doesn’t exactly scream clean sheet.

Countering this, the Magpies are sweating on the fitness of Alexander Isak, a striker they would miss as much for his ability to pull defences out of shape as his goals.

Actually, that’s not strictly true. The prolific Swede has converted 33.8% of his team’s league goals this term.

Weighing up the pros and cons of this clash it is tempting to suspect a mirroring of Everton’s recent loss at Chelsea playing out in the North-East.

The visitors will offer up very little from an attacking perspective, focusing on their structure and frustrating Newcastle throughout. But ultimately, despite being limited to a negligible number of clear-cut chances – Everton have restricted their opponents to three or fewer shots on target in exactly half of their games under Moyes – the hosts will find a way.

Back under 2.5 goals, no to BTTS, and under 8.5 total SOT at 11/4

That leaves Aston Villa, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest as the other contenders and with the latter two meeting at the City Ground a lot of eyes will be aimed at the Midlands late Sunday afternoon. The context here is that Chelsea can afford to draw, if Villa’s result goes their way, but Forest have to win come what may.

Enzo Maresca’s side are minus Nicolas Jackson and for all that the forward’s finishing is erratic the Blues have struggled when deprived of their number nine this term. In defeats to Brighton and Arsenal they rarely troubled the keeper. In losing to Aston Villa they wasted a string of good chances.

A further concern lies in the drifting form of Noni Madueke and Neto while up front – such are Chelsea’s injury problems – it remains to be seen if Tyrique George is started again. Largely ineffective against Man United last weekend this is one hell of a crucial game for an inexperienced teen to lead the line.

All of which places greater emphasis on Cole Palmer to produce, something he has been less inclined to do in 2025. The midfielder’s goal involvements may have plummeted however but his other stats have remained consistent. Indeed no other Chelsea player has conjured up more shots and chances combined (212) in the last 15 years.

Can the forever scheming 23-year-old atone for a poor few months when it most matters here? Perhaps, but backing his England colleague Morgan Gibbs-White feels like a safer bet all the same. The Forest man has two goals and an assist in his last two outings and comes into this firing on every cylinder.

Back Morgan Gibbs-White to score or assist at 23/10

Lastly there is Villa, who may be level on points with Newcastle and Chelsea but due to an inferior goal difference cannot afford to match their results. Instead they will be desperately hoping Everton or Forest – or Fulham for that matter – do them a considerable favour.

For their part, Unai Emery’s men travel to Old Trafford, home to crisis and calamity this season and to put that crisis and calamity into perspective consider this. If United lose it will be the first time they have lost exactly half of their league fixtures since 1931.

Winless in eight in the league, and failing to score in half of those defeats, the defective Reds are there for the taking with Villa – despite being deprived of Rashford and Tielemans – having the firepower to take full advantage.

The concern here though lies in Villa’s inability to notch early on their travels, converting 14 of their last 18 on the road in the second half. By then, results elsewhere could compound their fate with momentum subsequently dipping.

A draw is fancied here, especially at such terrific odds.

Back the draw at Old Trafford at 13/4

A bet builder backing City, Newcastle and Forest to win plus Villa to draw offers up a substantial 28/1

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