WHEN betting early doors on any outright market there is typically a golden rule to adhere to. It’s to give wait-and-see players and wait-and-see teams a very wide berth.

A perfect example of this lies in the leading goal-scorer market for the Premier League 2024/25 season.

Last term, Darwin Nunez ran mostly cold, enjoying a purple patch around the new year but elsewhere troubling the woodwork on nine occasions. Taking on the third-most shots of any player who reached double figures the Uruguayan ultimately posted the worst goals conversion rate of his peers, a miserable and meagre 13%.

But there is unquestionably a player in there just waiting to get out, and what if everything clicks for Nunez under new management and a new set-up at Anfield?

The possibility of this makes his 16/1 odds to win the Golden Boot enticing for sure.

Only then we acknowledge the two forwards who share that price, they being Alexander Isak and Ollie Watkins.

Isak bagged 21 in 30 last season. He is a proven finisher at this level who converted every 108 minutes in the league. As for Watkins, he accrued the fifth most goal involvements across Europe’s big five leagues. Propelled by his Euro semi-final heroics and fronting an Aston Villa side on the up, further prolificacy can be expected.

It’s wait-and-see versus two probables. It’s no contest.

 

And yet, all this said, there is a significant caveat to the golden rule proffered above and it’s an exception to the rule that lies in basic maths.

Let’s widen our gaze to wait-and-see teams to illustrate this, focusing on the title race to come.

Interestingly, there are several sides capable of challenging at the summit who are either beginning a fresh cycle, or are halfway through being remodeled.  

As already mentioned, there is Liverpool post-Klopp. Manchester United have had two seasons under Erik Ten Hag, one good, one terrible. Chelsea attempted to completely reimagine themselves in the space of a calendar year and were chaotic, and at times shambolic, as a consequence.

You can include Tottenham in this thinking too. Will Ange Postecoglou learn from last season and compromise – even a little – on his high-wire defensive high-line? If so, Spurs could be in the reckoning.

So having identified the wait-and-see title outsiders we then turn to the math, which is thus.

If you believe that a side has a one-in-four chance of becoming a fully-formed project this term – of everything working out – then quarter their current odds.

If you would back them at this reduced price, in full prior knowledge that they’re about to fire on every cylinder, then bingo, you’re in business.

It is this logic that makes backing Chelsea at 20/1 to win the Premier League title a tempting proposition. Really.

That’s because we have already seen evidence that the pandemonium of the Todd Boehly era at Stamford Bridge is beginning to settle down. The Blues lost only one of their concluding 15 league fixtures last term, gaining 19 points from 21 at home from early February.

Furthermore, new boss Enzo Maresca has previously demonstrated that he can quickly forge a winning, fluid collective, doing so to great affect at Leicester.

More prosaically, Chelsea possess the quality to top the table come May. Their midfield of Fernendez, Caicedo and Gallagher is a match for anyone. Cole Palmer has been a revelation.

And lastly, it’s well worth considering that Manchester City might struggle to go to the well for a fifth year running, and that Arsenal’s best chance of landing a title was last season, when so much went their way.

Granted, all this is a series of best case scenarios on Chelsea’s behalf. But at such generous odds, it still suggests value.

 

The same principles apply to the top four chase, and here we head 200 miles north to Old Trafford.

“This is not the standard for top football,” a furious Ten Hag said after seeing his side lose to Rosenborg this week in their first pre-season friendly. “We are Man United and should perform better.”

Their drab display certainly doesn’t bode well, especially after being disjointed for the most part last season, but pertinently that picture may change by the time United take on Fulham on the opening day.

With Joshua Zirkzee already over the line, a much-needed different option up front, United are reportedly close to securing both Leny Yoro and Matthijs De Ligt to bolster their back-line. Manuel Ugarte meanwhile is almost nailed-on to join, replacing the wearied legs of Casemiro in midfield.

Should these transfers be completed, we can anticipate a change in mood and mindset at a club recently beleaguered and even if we’ve been here before – projecting misplaced optimism onto a club in perpetual crisis – it’s worth remembering that United remained part of the top four conversation for most of last term, despite being dreadful.

An improvement on that low bar should see them firmly in the frame.

 

West Ham is an interesting proposition this time out, a team that spent 65% of last season in the top eight yet were repeatedly portrayed to be in trouble.

Much of that negativity, it must be said, derived from a prevailing feeling that David Moyes’ time in East London was coming to an end and with Julen Lopetegui’s arrival that makes the Hammers a wait-and-see prospect for the months ahead.

It’s fair to be upbeat about this given the Spaniard’s managerial pedigree.

Moreover, after leaving Wolves aggrieved at their financial cut-backs, the 57-year-old is being backed on this occasion, with the teenage Brazilian winger Luis Guilherme purchased for £25m and Max Kilman joining for £40m. A loan deal for Jean-Clair Todibo is in the pipeline and there are serious overtures being made towards Manchester United’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Villarreal’s Alexander Sorloth.

Todibo incidentally would be a major coup.

All of which intimates that a new era is forthcoming at the London Stadium but if Lopetegui is smart – and he is, very – he will build it on the foundations left by Moyes.

The Hammers have been top half finishers for three of the last four seasons.

 

Finally, there is the top 10 market to ponder, and here we find a smorgasbord of candidates, not least Everton who tempt at 7/2. The Toffees would have finished 12^th last term were it not for their points deduction and it was not simply that which proved so costly. The threat of it and the uncertainty that followed undermined Sean Dyche’s side at every turn.

Still, it is a recently promoted team that most appeals, even if history tells us otherwise.

A remarkable 43 of the 94 teams who have come up from the Championship in the Premier League era have gone straight back down while last term, all three promoted sides suffered that fate.

But we have also seen on numerous occasions promoted sides initially soar, maintaining their momentum and gate-crashing the party in some style until gravity eventually takes hold.

Why not Ipswich to do precisely this going into the autumn? And why should they be expected to decline thereafter?

Buoyed by Kieran McKenna’s decision to stay in Suffolk the high-pressing, possession-based fare perfected by the Tractor Boys is a neat fit for the top-flight. In truth, they’ve bene playing Premier League football now for two years and more.

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