CONSECUTIVE wins either side of the international break may have alleviated talk of crisis at Old Trafford, and placed Manchester United on a firmer footing in the league, but it still amounts to papering over the cracks.

A recent reliance on Scott McTominay to score their goals, and a barnstorming finish to their game at home to Brentford, doesn’t disguise how disjointed they are, and have been for the most part this season. It confounds how routinely their midfield is by-passed. It shocks how often their defence – that has systemic problems in itself – is left exposed and outnumbered.

So much of this derives from offensive players being far too passive in the press but with the ball at their feet it doesn’t get any better for Erik Ten Hag’s out-of-sorts collective who are typically ponderous and risk-averse in build-up. Only three sides have been dispossessed more.

Up front meanwhile, their problems are writ large. Between them Antony, Rashford, Garnacho, Martial and Hojlund have featured for 2028 minutes in the league. They have just a single goal to show for it.

With the lowest tally in the top ten, only once before in the post-Ferguson era have United scored so few goals at this stage of the campaign.

Under 1.5 goals for United and the Reds to receive the most cards offers up 5/6

It may surprise therefore to learn that this weekend’s hosts for the 191^st Manchester derby have taken on more shots than their neighbours in 2023/24, 144 to 141. How telling it is though that 15 fewer have ended up on target.

If that smacks of wastefulness, it also strongly hints at desperation, of trying to force the issue, self-aware that presently this is a Manchester United with serious limitations.

All of which suggests that a potentially painful Sunday afternoon awaits them, with City reveling in an exhibition of dominance similar to what we witnessed last term at the Etihad. Then, Erling Haaland and Phil Foden each bagged a hat-trick, the Norwegian helping himself to two assists for good measure, and frankly the one-sided nature of that contest has not been uncommon in this fixture down the years. Even at Old Trafford there have been occasions when City have straightforwardly secured the result then had the audacity to take their foot off the pedal for the remaining half an hour or so.

We should not discount the possibility of this occurring again.

Two of the last four derbies have seen a penalty converted while in the Premier League the volume of pens this season are up on last year. Go for a spot-kick being given @ 11/5

It’s a prospect that feels distinctly feasible so long as Rodri and John Stones get through this week’s Champions League commitment unscathed. The Spanish metronome is City’s everything, as demonstrated by Pep Gaurdola’s men losing all three of the domestic games he recently missed through suspension. As for Stones, his return from injury has been an enormous fillip, his covering of two roles allowing City’s front five to play with greater freedom.

Of that quintet, Phil Foden could well be deployed centrally, tasked with driving forward into the heart of a panicked back-line. No City player has made more key passes this term.

And more often than not, he will release to Jeremy Doku, the flying winger with 49 progressive carries to his name and 3.3 successful dribbles per 90. Diogo Dalot has been one of United’s better performing players this season but he will have his work cut out here and then some. How he fares against the relentlessly proactive Belgian will go some way to determining the outcome of Sunday’s clash.

Then of course there is Erling Haaland to consider, the Striking Viking never less than a weapons-grade threat. Haaland may have missed the most big chances in the top-flight to date (9) but by always showing he has still scored every 88.8 minutes.

Lastly, it’s perhaps pertinent that Julian Alvarez has opened the scoring in three of the last four games he has found the target. Seven of his last ten league goals have been converted before the break.

Back the Blues to be ahead at half-time @ 6/5

If this all infers that the visitors will take an early lead, maintain control of the narrative, subsequently build on their advantage, then ease up, that’s because gut instinct takes us there. But naturally in a game such as this abstracts must be factored in, acknowledged at the very least.

This is a derby, a unique fixture in many ways, so it’s not far-fetched to believe that for all of their struggles, United may turn up and turn it on.

And should they do so, Bruno Fernandes is the man to back, creating 27 chances in 2023/24 and a scorer in each of his last two encounters with City. The faint possibility of Aaron Wan-Bissaka being available, affording Dalot to switch to the left, and Sofyan Amrabat to partner up with Mason Mount in midfield is another potential plus.

Yet still, in the final reckoning it is City who are fancied to prevail, to win their 14^th league derby in the last 25 meetings. By half-time, United fans may well be praying it doesn’t get ugly.

Haaland has averaged 2.3 shots on target per 90 this term. Over 1.5 here for the fearsome forward is a shout @ 7/5