12th November 2022. That was the date when Manchester City last lost at the Etihad in any competition.
It’s a remarkable run that has seen Pep Guardiola’s side win 27 times and draw twice, scoring 83 – a smidgeon over three goals per 90 – and conceding 18. It’s a sustained spell of dominance at home that dates back to England preparing for Qatar, while Aston Villa languished near the foot of the table having recently sacked Steven Gerrard.
In that time period, that consists of a year and a fortnight, there have been demolitions of Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, while pertinently Tottenham were put to the sword back in January, bested 4-2.
City came close to ending that unbeaten record against a spirited Leipzig until a second half-salvo extended their unbeaten run to 18 games in the Champions League, and entertaining Spurs this Sunday of course it’s possible they could lose. But all things considered, backing against them at home at present amounts to waving a clutched straw to a mountain of evidence.
Even so, there is a niggle of doubt when it comes to dismissing Tottenham’s chances so easily. How can there not be given what they’ve served up this term and for all of their injury problems, they possess Son Heung-min up front, a player who typically thrives in this fixture with ten goal involvements in 17. The Korean forward has scored eight in 13 this term.
They have Dejan Kulusevski too, who has created more chances following a ball carry than any other top-flight player. In midfield, Bissouma and Sarr have been largely superb in 2023/24.
Furthermore, they have made a regular habit of unseating City in recent years, losing only two of their last eight league encounters. Indeed, so predictable have these surprising results become that exasperated Blues have started to view them as a necessary tax. Their side wins trophies galore and they get to luxuriate in fabulous Pep-ball on a weekly basis. But in return they must lose to Tottenham at least once a season. That’s the deal.
How can we possibly ignore though, Spurs’ injury woes, that has decimated an early claim to be title challengers. Losing James Maddison has deprived Ange Postecoglou of ingenuity in the final third while seeing Rodrigo Bentancur hobble off against Aston Villa was the very last thing the Aussie coach needed.
It’s at the back however where Tottenham’s chief problems lie and with Romero still suspended and Van de Ven out they must go again with two reconfigured full-backs in the middle. That’s hardly ideal when coming up against a phenomenal Erling Haaland who has scored 1.13 per 90, converting every third attempt on goal. The Striking Viking incidentally has also carved out three assists, more than any Spurs player bar Maddison.
It is a make-do back-line that has resulted in Tottenham scoring first in their last three games due to their quality, then losing each time due to their absences. No team in the Premier League era by the way has ever scored first and lost for four games on the bounce.
Staying with unusual scoring patterns, we can assume that Postecoglou is no fan of the wealth of added-on time we’re seeing this season. Tottenham have conceded 47% of their goals this term beyond the 45th and 90th minute.
As for City it’s worth noting they have scored inside the opening half an hour in each of their last five league outings, and though back-to-back draws have lost them top spot they remain otherwise in rude health with John Stones available once more and Jack Grealish recovered from illness.
The latter is fancied to start on Sunday, meaning Jeremy Doku might be switched to the right for the third time in 2023/24 and the Belgian dribble-king is figuratively flying after twisting Trent Alexander-Arnold’s blood several times over last weekend. He is an obvious and genuine threat here, averaging a quite frankly ridiculous 4.3 dribbles per 90, while 1.9 key passes per 90 proves there is also an end product.
Despite accruing decent stats, Julian Alvarez could well be dropped, his form of late dipping, and that might mean the rare deployment of Phil Foden in the number 8/10 hybrid role. This is an exciting proposition when factoring in how explosive he’s been in recent months.
Lastly we come to Bernardo Silva, creator of seven big chances this season even though he has been stationed here, there and everywhere. The Portuguese schemer ran the show last Saturday against Liverpool and when he’s peaking City tend to border on the unbeatable, appearing to have an extra player on the pitch. Silva at his best is two brilliant and contrasting talents rolled into one.
Ste’s Treble
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