FOR the second year running both Manchester clubs compete in opposing FA Cup semis, again offering up the tantalising promise of a derby masquerading as a final.

Last April it was United who had the tougher task, taking on a Brighton side in splendid form, and mirroring their present predicament of facing down an avalanche of shots on a weekly basis, their goal was peppered throughout, but to no avail.

In only the second goalless semi-final since the Millennium, the Reds got through on pens.

City meanwhile had Championship high-flyers Sheffield United to overcome, which they did in comfortable fashion.

This time out the roles are reversed. It is City who have the in-form Premier League opposition, Chelsea unbeaten in eight in the league and averaging 2.8 goals per 90 in the process.

United have the second-tier side, and if the Blades were routinely undone twelve months ago when facing superior fare – a harbinger of what was to come for them – we can expect the same fate to befall Coventry this Sunday afternoon.  

Before we get to the hows and whys of this however it is worth stepping back and studying the fixture, not the teams involved. After all, a FA Cup semi is unique to other games, held at Wembley with all the grandeur and tense drama of a marquee event, yet it’s to determine who reaches a marquee event.

Are there any trends in these games worth noting? In parts, yes.

In the last decade – so 20 semi-finals – there has been an average of three goals scored per game. One in five have gone to extra-time and there has been a penalty scored in a quarter of the contests.

Interestingly 64.2% of the goals scored in normal time have been converted in the second period.

 

The obvious takeaway from these figures is that with so much on the line, teams tend to err on the side of caution before showing any signs of adventure. But ultimately there is usually a healthy volume of goals.

Which brings us to Saturday teatime and two sides who have been finding the back of the net regularly of late.

Going into yesterday’s Champions League second leg against Real Madrid, Pep Guardiola’s men have scored every 22 minutes across April, including three at the Bernabeu last week. Chelsea, meanwhile, as already mentioned, have unearthed a lethal streak that has propelled them into an altogether happier place, a turnaround in their fortunes that can be traced all the way back to the nadir of shipping in four at home to Wolves in early February.

Since that grim afternoon, Cole Palmer has stopped merely impressing and started to genuinely astonish, putting in performances usually reserved for imminent Ballon d’Or recipients. No top-flight peer has out-scored the Blues in the last eight matchweeks and Cole has scored or assisted 65% of their haul, a ridiculous return, a ridiculous stat.

Last September, the high-ups at Manchester City will have been slapping each other on the back, after selling another of their promising kids for pure profit, profit they could parlay onto an established Premier League star such as Matheus Nunes.

Just seven months later Guardiola will be devising a special plan to nullify the 21-year-old, to limit his opportunities to dart into spaces where he has proven form for wreaking havoc.

Nunes will likely reside on the bench for City.

The devastating impact of Palmer aside, Conor Gallagher has put in a series of 8/10 displays in recent weeks while Malo Gusto is so important for Pochettino’s improved mandate, covering every blade down their right.

In demolishing Everton on Monday, 47% of Chelsea’s possession was concentrated down that flank, with Gusto either starting or involved in every move.

Yet, for all the good results and a firm farewell to a crisis narrative it is not all positives for the Blues, their problems at the back persisting. Monday’s clean sheet against the Toffees was their first for 14 games across all comps.

 

As for City, they have their own wonder-kid of course, or at least a former wonder-kid who has now blossomed into a reliable, game-changing superstar. But before we consider backing Phil Foden to extend on a spree that’s seen him bag two hat-tricks – like Palmer – in 2024, a word to the wise.

Guardiola has plenty of previous for tinkering with his line-up in FA Cup semis, his eight changes influencing a 1-0 loss to Chelsea in this fixture in 2021 and a weakened XI losing to Liverpool a year later.

As the games come thick and fast, this is the contest Guardiola views as being least important and subsequently backing any City individual in the betting comes with an additional risk. They may not feature.

There are however two pretty much nailed-on certs in this clash, if 2023/24 to this juncture is to be believed.

City have won 2.4 more corners per 90 than their southern foes across the campaign. And it has to be pertinent that the current holders of the cup are top of the fair play table while Chelsea languish, shame-faced, at the bottom.

 

If what transpires on Saturday feels annoyingly unpredictable the same cannot be said for 24 hours later.

All of the negative tropes that have surrounded Manchester United in recent months – tropes that have become well-known and well-worn – admittedly still hold true. They concede far too many shots on goal. They are a team made up of individuals and moments. They visibly lack a playing identity, save for hitting teams on the break. Their build-up play is disjointed, while a long-standing injury crisis in defence has rendered them consistently porous.

But though that’s one hell of a list – one that would ordinarily lend itself to an upset – it still feels like the disparity in quality they boast over the Sky Blues will ultimately tell on a vast Wembley pitch.

More saliently, that disparity might well have been bridged by Coventry a few weeks ago but feels beyond them now.

 

Going into April, Mark Robins’ side were flying. Ellis Simms and Haji Wright were both banging in the goals. A Play-Off spot was within touching distance.

In the cup meanwhile there was that exhilarating and dramatic late comeback at Molineux to reach the last four, their three goals adding to a welter scored in previous rounds.

That Coventry, against a United side supping in the last-chance saloon, stood a real chance.

Now though, after three defeats in four in the Championship has ended all hopes of promotion, it’s a different story. And it’s the manner of those defeats that most concern. With all their vitals down, it increasingly looks like the West Midlands side have run their best races. They’re done.

Some fight will be shown at the weekend naturally, and furthermore glimpses of who they have mostly been this term. But with Bruno Fernandes hitting form, and Rasmus Hojlund feeling his way back into proceedings, and with the underdogs managing only two clean sheets in their last 18 in the Championship, this might be where the romance of the cup dies.

What’s more, the dagger may be drawn early, with Coventry conceding 11 of their last 15 against in the league in the first half. United, for their part, have scored 13 inside 25 minutes in 2024.

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