MALIGNED and diminished, the FA Cup needs giant-killing feats more than ever these days. It is encouraging therefore that this year’s fourth round draw has been kind in this regard, offering up plenty of opportunities for pun-heavy back page headlines and nationwide surprise.
Indeed, with five lower league teams facing Premier League fare – all at home – and a further three Championship sides doing likewise, the chances are that at least one elite outfit will be dumped unceremoniously out of the competition in the days to come, bewildered by cramped changing rooms and their keeper being informed he is s***-ahhh at every goal-kick.
Trying to identify who this might be is understandably a very difficult task given that the act itself defies all logic, but what we can do is rule some out and go from there.
Leyton Orient won’t unduly trouble Manchester City this Saturday despite the O’s recently putting together an 11-game unbeaten streak in League One.
City may be quickly returning to the capital after being spanked by their arch-rivals Arsenal but this is a team submerged in problems who seek solace in being flat-track bullies. In effect, taking out their frustrations on lesser foes.
This is best epitomized by a six-goal thrashing of Ipswich in the league and an eight-goal mauling of Salford in the cup.
It is doubtful that Orient will endure similar punishment, so wounded are the champions at present. A giant-killing of Haaland, De Bruyne and company however just feels too far-fetched to invest in.
The same goes sadly for Doncaster, this despite Rovers lying second in League Two. Their opponents on Monday evening, Crystal Palace, are unbeaten on their travels since mid-October and moreover, Oliver Glasner has shown he is unwilling to make many alterations for this tournament, putting out a strong eleven against Stockport. Sarr will feature, as too will Eze. Perhaps Nketiah will come in for Mateta but even here there is danger for Donny.
The former Arsenal striker is still to convert in the Premier League but boasts two in three domestic cup starts.
Elsewhere, Birmingham will back themselves at home to Newcastle even if the Magpies have a terrific away record of late and a forward in Alexander Isak who can’t stop scoring.
Brum are flying in League One this term, picking up 33 points from the last 39 on offer, and they too have a prolific front-man in the form of Jay Stansfield. The 22-year-old has found the back of the net every 116 minutes in 2024/25, some of that tally made up of stunning efforts.
Then there’s Wigan hosting Fulham. The Latics have been inconsistent in their results for some time now but that’s not necessarily a bad thing when cast as underdogs in the cup. It maybe matters too that Fulham have exited at this stage of the competition in four of the last five years.
All the same, the Cottagers are fancied to prevail at the Brick Community Stadium, possessing too many game-changers to be realistically at risk of a giant-slaying. Andreas Perreira alone created nine chances vs Watford in the previous round.
Don’t discount this one being a feisty affair, incidentally. Wigan are near the foot of the fair play table in League One while Fulham have form for picking up multiple bookings on the road.
Staying with the 3pm Saturday kick-offs, would anyone be remotely surprised if Coventry did a number on Ipswich at the CBS Arena? It is after all Premier League versus Championship. A home win should at the very least raise an eyebrow.
Yet so severe and prolonged is Ipswich’s suffering this term that it’s hard to pick out an overall nadir, or even one from recent losses. Would it be shipping in six against City? Or losing at home to one of the worst top-flight sides in living memory, Southampton?
The Tractor Boys – who went out in the fourth round last year to Maidstone – presumably won’t have much fight in them for a cup run, distracted as they are by a survival scrap, while Coventry are in good enough shape to take full advantage.
Look out for Jack Rudoni, the midfielder accruing eight assists in 2024/25. Brandon Thomas-Asante, meanwhile, has converted three in four after previously firing blanks for much of the campaign.
Continuing our fourth-round odyssey, we encounter Stoke v Cardiff, two teams who would be firmly in the relegation mire if not for a prolific forward. Callum Robinson has scored exactly a third of the Bluebird’s league goals this term. Tom Cannon has fired 32.1% of Stoke’s.
What is most striking about this all-Championship clash is that four of Cardiff’s last seven outings ended honours-even while 11 of Stoke’s last 22 have been drawn.
When they met in mid-December, it was of course a stalemate, and sometimes these things write themselves.
If that meeting screams deadlock, Southampton’s hosting of Burnley this weekend feels nailed-on to be a low-scoring affair.
With a meagre chance conversion rate of 6.4% the Saints have scored only 0.7 goals per 90 at home in a season that could yet break records for all the wrong reasons. Five of the Clarets’ last eight outings meanwhile have finished 0-0. In fact, remarkably, just six of their 31 league contests have produced more than two goals.
There are times when stats whisper in your ear. On other occasions they go nose to nose and dare you to look away.
Lastly we come to the home banker of the round, and this is stated despite the team tipped to lose coming out on top in their league encounter earlier this season.
Leeds may have been unseated at The Den back in early November against a perfectly decent Millwall collective but at home they have largely been imperious in 2024/25, blasting seven past Cardiff last time out.
A 13th league goal for Joel Piroe midweek means he has scored 0.64 goals per 90 while Largie Ramazani is a serious threat down the left. The tricky Belgian posted three shots on target against Harrogate in the third round.
Only Walsall have scored more second-half goals across the four divisions than Leeds, who appear destined for the Premier League come May, but for all of their attacking prowess their greatest strength lies at the back.
Bolstered by their ‘Welsh wall’ of Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon, the Yorkshire giants shut teams out for 192 minutes at a time at Elland Road and another clean sheet on Wednesday means they haven’t conceded in all comps for 540 minutes.
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