FOR the first time since the 1880s the same teams face up in a FA Cup final two years running and if that’s a historical quirk meaningful history can also be made this Saturday. Should Manchester City win they will be the first team to ever achieve back-to-back domestic doubles.

For their arch-neighbours United, the stakes are just as high, various reports suggesting how they perform at Wembley will go a long way to determining Erik Ten Hag’s future.

With Mauricio Pochettino now twiddling his thumbs that puts even greater significance on what strangely feels like an audition two years into the job.

For the Dutchman it’s very much been a tenure of two halves and it’s interesting to revisit last year’s cup final preview to find the phrase ‘a new era’ sincerely included. A third-place finish, securing a League Cup, and reaching a FA Cup final strongly hinted that a decade of chaos and under-achievement post-Ferguson was coming to an end, that United were on the right track to becoming United again.

To say that its unraveled ever since, however, would be a huge understatement, all of that good work disintegrating into one catastrophe after another. Stubbornly adhering to a game-plan that invites the maximum amount of pressure onto their flaws the Reds posted their lowest league placing since 1990, conceding 17.5 attempts on their goal per 90 along the way.

The last five derbies have produced a goal every 16 minutes in their second halves. Over 2.5 second half goals is worth a punt at 21/10

In 47% of their league fixtures they were breached twice or more. For only the third time since they were relegated in the mid-Seventies they finished a campaign with a minus goal difference.

But you know all this. Moreover, such stats are mainly just currency for rival fans to share around on social media, not even doing justice to what we all witnessed on a regular basis from August to May. Simply put, a team that cost a great deal of money to assemble had become a dysfunctional mess.

It stands to reason therefore that City should be backed to repeat their cup success from 12 months ago, especially given the vast disparity between the sides involved, but before we further highlight those disparities a caveat nags away.

However much it matters or however much it doesn’t, Manchester United ended their tumultuous season on a high.

The results – a 3-2 home win over Newcastle and winning to nil down at Brighton – are less relevant to how they were pulled off, with Ten Hag remodeling his side in the closing weeks to good effect.

A midfield three of Mainoo, McTominay and Amrabat offered greater protection and plenty of industry. Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund meanwhile were both dropped to the bench, allowing for a new-look attack that stationed Bruno Fernandes as a false nine with Amad Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho either side.

Chances were still gifted several times over by an injury-depleted defence but elsewhere there was a balance that has sorely been lacking this term. Fernandes showed glimpses of his instrumental best. Garnacho took on six shots combined.

It’s worth noting too that Hojlund twice came on and scored, and it’s also worth nothing that 13 of his 16 goals in 2023/24 have been converted either in the opening 20 minutes or the final ten.

Yet even if Ten Hag sticks with this encouraging new formula at the weekend how much damage can they realistically cause against a side that ultimately coasted to a fourth successive title, winning nine on the bounce while accruing an aggregate scoreline in those games of 33-6.

With the Blues averaging 3.6 goals per 90 in the league since the start of April it’s definitely worth exploring the exact winning margin market which is always generous. A margin of 3 offers up 19/4

City have conceded 0.9 goals per 90 all term while at the other end Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland seemingly take it in turns to individually dismantle opponents, all within a framework more than capable of doing that regardless.

Two goals on the final day took Foden’s league tally to 19, his accuracy exemplified by outstripping his suggested xG by 8.7 goals. Pertinently, the imminent star of the Euros thrives against United, notching six in 12 previous derbies.

Five days prior to their title-clincher, it was Haaland who grabbed a brace as Spurs were vanquished in North London. That double made it a mere 27 league strikes this time out for the Norwegian and converting 0.95 goals per 90 with a 60% shot accuracy is a tremendous return should we believe a headline-hunting Sky pundit who regards him as a League Two player.

Total over 2.5 goals and Haaland to score is a popular bet builder for a reason at 17/20

Lastly, there is De Bruyne, the Premier League’s assist king. In 2023/24 the Belgian assisted two more than anyone from Old Trafford despite his campaign starting in mid-January.

There are, of course, a plethora of other names deserving of mention, not least the in-form Josko Gvardiol and the difference he’s made down City’s left but let’s finish by recalling the two league encounters this season gone between the cup finalists, both comprehensively one-sided.

Averaging 66.7% possession across the two derbies, City had 18 shots on target to United’s four, 48 shots to ten. Dominating every stat, the 3-0 and 3-1 scorelines flattered the Reds who were presumably relieved to avoid a thumping.

A similar outcome awaits this Saturday in a historic final with high stakes.

Manchester City to win both halves is a decent shout at 15/8

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