SOME FA Cups are more romantic than others.

Take the 2022/23 version that saw Stevenage dump Aston Villa out, in the Midlands no less. That was a proper giant-killing, one for the ages.

A couple of rounds later, we realised that Grimsby Town had smuggled their way to the last 16 to little fanfare. Few gave them a chance away to top-flight Southampton but the Mariners duly reached the quarter-finals for the first time since 1939.

From there of course, the big boys saw out the competition, but that was okay because we’d had our upsets. Had our moments.

Thank goodness then for Plymouth Argyle because without them this year would almost exclusively be made up of pre-match favourites prevailing with barely an excitable headline in sight.

With a new manager at the helm, the Pilgrims traveled to Brentford in January and pulled off a superb smash-and-grab. They followed that up by defeating Liverpool against all expectation and it should not be under-estimated how vital such outcomes are for a tournament that is repeatedly put under threat.

Without its capacity to surprise, the FA Cup is merely the League Cup with better stories to tell.

This Saturday, cast as distant 40/1 outsiders, the Championship side head to the Etihad and naturally their best hope is of a miracle occurring.

Since losing to Wigan at this stage in 2018, Manchester City have played 18 clubs beyond the Premier League and won them all to an aggregate scoreline of 69-9. Just naming their individuals makes a compelling case for a home win accompanied by multiple goals.

Yet we cannot easily dismiss the issues that are ongoing at the reigning league champions, not least a defensive crisis that has seen them breached in 77.5% of their fixtures this term.

Plymouth, ominously, have the third best chance conversion rate in the second-tier (9%).

Furthermore, this is an underdog transformed of late, galvanized by a boss in Miron Muslic who has been compared to Winston Churchill due to his inspirational speeches. A game such as this is square in his wheelhouse.

 

Staying with chances converted leads us to Cardiff City and their trip to Villa Park on Friday evening where they’re hoping to do a Stevenage.

The Bluebirds have racked up the fifth highest number of shots on target in the Championship this season yet they languish 19^th in the table due to their inability to make them count. An underwhelming 37 league goals from 510 attempts says a great deal.

Granted, the visitors possess the prolific Callum Robinson, but such is their reliance on the striker – the 30-year-old has fired just shy of a third of their total haul – it leaves them predictable and ineffectual elsewhere.

Moreover, they are bang average at the back, keeping just one clean sheet on the road all season. Away to Burnley and Leeds – arguably the two best sides in the division – they have lost 5-0 and 7-0.

If Unai Emery’s men can keep Robinson subdued, we can expect the likes of Marco Asensio to have an enjoyable night at the other end. That’s because for all of their problems away from the Midlands, Villa have consistently been impressive at home.

 

The following day at Deepdale an all-Championship affair commences and with Preston and Burnley’s two league clashes this season both ending 0-0 the temptation is to back another low-scorer. Alas, a distinct lack of goals in Burnley fixtures in 2024/25 is hardly breaking news, meaning the relevant odds reflect this.

For value then, we look elsewhere, but it’s still worth lingering on an incredible defensive feat being pulled off by Scott Parker’s side on a weekly basis. The Clarets have kept clean sheets in their last 12 league outings. Across their promotion-chasing season as a whole they are conceding at a rate of a goal every 340 minutes.

Therefore, with almost half of Preston’s league commitments ending in a draw to date, this hardly smacks of a 4-3 thriller. It doesn’t help either in this regard that both teams are blessed in having excellent goalkeepers, James Trafford boasting the best save percentage in the league.  

What we can perhaps expect in abundance are cards, Preston racking up a considerable 87 cautions. As for the outcome, let’s go with Burnley’s Zian Flemming to add to his remarkable output in this competition, the striker averaging a goal involvement every 40 minutes in the cup.

 

Next up, Bournemouth v Wolves gets our attention, or rather Matheus Cunha does, the forward notching the deciding goal when these sides met at the Vitality Stadium just one week ago.

Naturally, it would be naïve to think that a straight repeat is on the cards, but certainly there are clues from that contest that are pertinent to what lies ahead on the South Coast, namely the extent in which the Cherries struggled to deal with Marshall Munetsi up front.

Via his work-rate – winning 11 duels all told – Wolves’ January signing afforded Cunha and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all manner of opportunities to torment the Bournemouth back-line, this resulting in three big chances and Arrizabalaga forced into making five saves.

If Cunha’s strike last Saturday is of interest incidentally that pales to his performance against Blackburn that brought his team to this juncture. The Brazilian’s five shots on target at Ewood Park was the most any player managed across the whole fourth round.

With the Cherries encountering a recent blip, Wolves are fancied here and don’t rule out the damage being done early. Eight of the visitors’ last 10 goals have been converted before the break.

 

Lastly, there is Fulham’s trip to Manchester United to consider, or more accurately, what role Bruno Fernandes may play in it.

The Reds’ orchestrator-in-chief has a fine legacy in this tournament, accruing 11 goal involvements in his last 11 cup outings. Moreover, he has four goal involvements in six against the Cottagers.

It maybe matters too that eight of his 12 goals and assists in 2024/25 have come at Old Trafford.

Additionally, there is United’s propensity to start games slowly under Rubim Amorim to factor in, a concern that in truth precedes the Portuguese coach. It’s no coincidence that both of their victories over Fulham this term have come courtesy of late winners to nil.

So often this season, United have been ponderous and safe early doors, improving somewhat after the break. It would hardly surprise if the same scenario played out here.

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