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IT is June 2003, and we are at the Walkers Stadium in Leicester.
It is the first ever meeting between England and Serbia – then merged with Montenegro – and an experimental side lines up for the hosts, largely to accommodate three brilliant individuals who all share similar attributes.
In midfield Paul Scholes is asked to hold while Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard take turns to bomb forward. Behind them, the inexperience of Matthew Upton at international level is a factor.
Sven-Goran Eriksson’s men take the lead 35 minutes in and go on to win the game but across the opening half-an-hour they are ponderous and predictable. They are adapting on the go and it shows.
Twenty-one years later and the Three Lions are set to encounter Serbia for the second time as they kick off their Euro 2024 campaign and on this occasion it’s different, but the same.
At the back the relative inexperience of Marc Guehi at this rare altitude is a concern given that he’s returning from a 10-week lay-off and he now has the street-smarts of Aleksandar Mitrovic to deal with.
If the press isn’t right we all witnessed against Iceland last week the space and opportunities that are afforded from routine counters, with England minus their organizer-in-chief Maguire.
Ahead of the Palace defender meanwhile, Trent Alexander-Arnold is strongly tipped to partner Declan Rice in midfield, his passing credentials edging out Conor Gallagher.
This is despite the fact that the Liverpool star has played only 250 minutes in midfield for his club, from 310 appearances. Previously for England, the right-back by trade and Rice have partnered up for a mere 267 minutes.
🦁🦁🦁 pic.twitter.com/J3TwVdXX47
— England (@England) June 12, 2024
And ahead of this odd couple, Bukayo Saka’s struggle to shake off a groin problem leads us to another worry, with Harry Kane likely linking up with Foden, Bellingham and Palmer.
All three are exceptional talents in their own right and each had exceptional seasons but could it be argued that they share similar attributes, going about their business in a comparable manner? Where is the directness? Where is the means to get behind a five-man rearguard entrenched in a low-ish block?
So much of England’s construction of attacks could be played ahead of it.
All of which suggests that Gareth Southgate’s side might need to feel their way into Sunday’s clash. To find their rhythm in order to find a way. And yes, for much of the first half they may well be ponderous and predictable.
There is data to back this up too. For each of their last four Euros, England have been slow out of the blocks, requiring at least half an hour to get into their stride. Furthermore, this current incarnation have only scored inside 30 minutes in two of their last ten outings.
Just to throw a little grenade in at this point incidentally. Serbia have notched inside 20 minutes in seven of their last 12.
Under 0.5 goals in the first half tempts at 19/10
But let’s say they don’t here though. Let’s say that it’s goalless with a chunk of the contest gone, and England are bossing possession with their opponent’s main architect Milinkovic-Savic limited to the occasional touch or two. What then?
The Eagles may possess a plethora of technicians, and for sure they will be eminently watchable in Germany, but at the back they are suspect and sometimes sloppy.
Just two clean sheets in the last calendar year is testimony to that. In that period they have conceded 2+ goals to Jordan, Hungary (twice), Bulgaria, Russia and Austria.
Should England remain patient, iron out their kinks, and crucially begin to drag Strahinja Pavlovic and co into uncomfortable areas, leaving space behind, they have the beating of Serbia this weekend, with a priceless opening three points up for grabs.
Wrapping up Monday’s victory… @HKane! ⚽️
— England (@England) June 4, 2024
Shot on Google Pixel 🤳 pic.twitter.com/XQYVMiwIxz
This leads us to possible goal-scorers and of course the most obvious source of them all.
After unleashing a blitzkrieg of goals on the Bundesliga last term, and having overcome a back injury, Harry Kane goes into the Euros looking to secure a second Golden Boot at a major tournament.
His first was in 2018 of course when all six of his strikes came in the opening three games and admittedly it’s only a statistical quirk but Kane went into that competition having fired seven in six starts. He has again scored seven in his last six starts.
Beyond the England captain’s world-class threat in the final third, at least one of Foden, Bellingham or Palmer should shine but let’s stick with the hypothesis that the favourites take time to warm up and Serbia require time to be worn down.
That brings substitutes into play with Anthony Gordon front of the queue and perhaps it’s relevant that the winger won eight of Newcastle’s 11 penalties last season. England after all have been awarded – and converted – a remarkable eight in their last 15 fixtures.
Back a penalty kick to be awarded for either side at 2/1
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