PEP Guardiola really thought he’d cracked it when his side demolished Ipswich Town. “They recognized themselves,” he said of his players post-match, looking for all the world like all the world had been lifted off his shoulders.
After months of trying to solve a puzzle that had key pieces missing and others misshapen, this felt like a breakthrough. There would be no more false dawns. Instead, Manchester City were close to being Manchester City again.
Only then they went to Paris and every positive became a negative once more when the Blues dramatically capitulated after taking an undeserved two goal lead.
There was panic in defender’s eyes. Players were being pulled out of position far too easily. Midfielders chased shadows at a slothful pace. It was all there. Every flaw.
Between the 54th minute and 85th minute, PSG took on 16 shots, scoring from three of them. City managed none.
We can only imagine how much Guardiola hurt in this moment, finding himself back at square one. We know that he cancelled training the following day and we can assume that he retreated to his mind palace for the umpteenth time, a place full of algorithms scrawled on walls alongside posters of Johan Cruyff.
And in due course he emerged with a new plan, one that required significant compromise on his part. He emerged without wingers.
Flooding the central areas with two extra midfielders worked by and large against Chelsea. It certainly led to a statement result. The additional numbers in there ensured that City weren’t so susceptible to transitions while it also meant Erling Haaland had closer support.
Out wide, Gvardiol and Nunez were pushed further up, roles they excelled at and relished. Moreover, City went more direct.
Was this the answer then? Was this the tactical panacea to cure their ills?
Sadly not, or not wholly so anyway. Last night, at home to Club Brugge, coming up against a low block, this new system was largely ineffective for the first 45, with City not even managing a single shot on target. Indeed, it took a substitution at the break to transform them. The introduction of Savinho. A winger.
What set-up therefore awaits us at the Emirates this Sunday, against an Arsenal side unbeaten at home since April last year?
It is highly doubtful that the Gunners will deploy a low block, as they did in the corresponding clash earlier in the campaign, and this suggests that Guardiola will give his new system another airing, as fascinating as that will be. Moreover, it intimates that a repeat performance as seen vs Chelsea might be on the cards, as much as that plays down Arsenal’s considerable strengths. City could well be more structurally solid through the middle all the while affording the likes of Marmoush and Foden license to roam.
To whatever extent this system works, the players seem to favour it. At this early juncture, that’s the biggest takeaway of all.
As for the players themselves, Marmous was excellent on his debut last weekend, scurrying out of half-spaces and enlivening City’s attack. Phil Foden meanwhile has scored six times in January from seven shots on target. Then there’s Kevin De Bruyne, who will likely play deeper on this occasion to meetings past. Even amidst a season of injury and substandard impact the Belgian has created 11 big chances from open play, the fifth most across Europe’s big five leagues.
He also happens to boast 13 goal involvements from previous encounters with Arsenal.
So what of the hosts, a team whose Champions League endeavours contrast sharply to that of City’s, being plain sailing all the way.
Last night, in Guardiola’s backyard, Catalonia, they conceded their first goal from open play in the competition but repetitive scheming and probing saw them win out, though they didn’t need to. Rice, Martinelli and Havertz were rested and they still looked like a class apart.
Yes, they are short of a striker, but that’s a problem for their big picture, not 90 minutes against a top four rival. And yes, David Raya being a doubt in nets is a concern, especially as his replacement Neto made a costly blunder in Spain.
But all told, this is a team in good shape, if compromised by injury.
Fortitude was required last week at Molineux, to maintain an unbeaten streak in the league that goes back to the start of November. In that time they have averaged 2.1 goals per 90, notably scoring the majority of them before the break.
What’s more, they have continued their prolificacy from set pieces, converting 12 all told in 2024/25. This is pertinent because five of their last 10 against City have been from corners.
Perhaps it matters too that they are unbeaten in four in this fixture. For a good while they struggled to gain an upper hand, even at times finding themselves schooled by City at their most imperious.
Now they’ll go into this contest believing they are the better side. They might just have a point too.
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