WHEN the final whistle rang out around St. James’ Park on Tuesday night, the travelling Toffees were in fine voice after seeing Dominic Calvert-Lewin rattle home what was his first goal in 24 matches across all competitions to rescue what could prove to be a precious point come the end of the season.
The goal, however, was not enough to prevent Everton from setting a new and unwanted club record in the Premier League, with the 1-1 draw meaning Everton have now failed to win any of their last 13 matches (D6 L7), their longest such run in the competition and their longest in the English top-flight since December 1957 (also 13).
The reality is that Everton, a side who have never been relegated from the Premier League, find themselves fighting for their lives for a third consecutive season. Where does the blame lie and are there signs that Sean Dyche can turn it around with just eight matches to go?
Goal Shy Blues
Sean Dyche has spoken numerous times about how for the majority of the season Everton’s performances haven’t quite matched up with the results, often presenting an argument that according to the data, Everton wouldn’t be in the relegation conversation if it wasn’t for a mixture of bad luck coupled with a lack of ruthlessness in the final third. In fairness, he might have a point.
Everton boast a healthy 45.63 xG from their 30 Premier League matches this season, the issue being that this has resulted in just 31 goals, giving the Toffees an xG underperformance of -14.63; the worst they’ve managed across a single Premier League campaign since the 2010-11 season.
This monumental underperformance is not just poor by Everton standards either. In fact, their xG difference of -14.63 is the biggest underperformance of any club across Europe’s top five divisions this term.
This season, Everton are statistically having to do more in front of goal to get their rewards than ever before, averaging 13.35 shots per goal – their most in a Premier League season since Opta’s shot data began in 2003/04. The Everton boss can’t exactly accuse his side of not having enough attempts either, in terms of shots per game, only in 2012/13 (16.7), 2010/11 (15.3) and 2013/14 (14.8) have Everton posted a higher shots per game average than they have this season (13.8), with all of those three aforementioned campaigns seeing Everton finish inside the top seven, a stark contrast to the relegation scrap they currently find themselves in.
Everton have actually outshot the opposition in 14 of their 30 Premier League matches this season (47%) but have gone on to win just three of those matches.
In the aftermath of Alphonso Areola’s recent stunning display at Goodison Park, Dyche said that he believes there have been ‘too many (opposition) goalkeepers having a worldie (against Everton)’, adding that it is his side’s ‘job to make sure he doesn’t have a ‘worldie’.
Again, it’s a claim that statistically holds weight. According to Opta’s Goals Prevented metric (Goals Conceded excluding OG’s – Expected Goals on Target Conceded), each of the top two best goalkeeping performances this season have been against Everton – with the Toffees going on to lose both matches (0-1 and 1-3 respectively). Add in the performances of Manchester United’s André Onana (1.73 Goals Prevented) and Sheffield United’s Wes Foderingham’s (1.68 Goals Prevented) and four of the top 12 goalkeeping performances in the Premier League this season have all been against Everton. Poor finishing from good areas? Good saves? It’s likely a combination of the two.
When it comes to player underperformance, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has really struggled in front of goal this season, scoring just four goals from 56 shots and posting a shot conversion rate of just 7.14%, his second-lowest conversion rate in a Premier League season after last season (6.45%). It’s no surprise then with this shot conversion rate that the 27-year-old is also having a season to forget in terms of xG, scoring four goals from an xG total of 10.31 – an underperformance of -6.31, his worst season to date and also the worst in the Premier League this season (with Everton’s Beto also ranking in the top 7 for xG underperformance).
It’s not all doom and gloom though, Calvert-Lewin’s equaliser from the penalty spot sealed a point for the Toffees, making it the first time Everton had avoided defeat on the road this season after conceding the opening goal, with Sean Dyche’s side losing all of their previous seven before this match. This match could well prove to be a turning point for both player and club – it was his first goal for the Blues in the Premier League since October 2023 and it’s a goal that should help to boost his confidence going into the final run in.
This 13-match winless run that Everton are currently on has seen them come up against the likes of Newcastle United, Manchester City (x2), Tottenham Hotspur (x2), Aston Villa and Manchester United amongst others and although there are no easy games in the Premier League as the old cliché goes, Everton’s fixture list certainly looks a lot more appealing as we head into the final stretch of the season, with matches against Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Luton Town and Sheffield United making up five of the Toffees’ last eight matches.
In fact, according to Opta’s Power Rankings, Everton have the ‘easiest’ fixtures from MD32 until the end of the season.
It’s clear from the data that Everton have severely underperformed in front of goal and it has cost them dear this season. The finger of blame from Evertonians has been pointed at poor chance conversion, goalkeeper overperformance, forwards lacking in confidence and at times even plain old bad luck – the truth is, all have probably played a part. Everton should be scoring more goals and picking up more points than they have been this season but the reality is they now have eight Premier League games left to try and connect the dots, to match up their performances with results to ensure their safety is secured for yet another season in England’s top flight.
