IN terms of goals scored and conceded, Nottingham Forest have been the best team in the Premier League this season when drawing.
Over the course of 16 hours of play that they’ve been level on the scoreboard this season, they’ve outscored their opponents by a margin 1.38 goals per 90.
Wait a second…
Admittedly, it’s quite a hard concept to get your head around at first. The information comes from Opta’s ‘game state’ data, which captures how teams are performing and what they’re doing depending on the result at the time: winning, drawing or losing.
How can a team have a goal difference when they’re drawing?
Think of it this way.
Team A kick off against Team B. For 30 minutes, Team A average 70% possession and fire in 10 shots without success. They then score with their 11th to go 1-0 up.
All of those numbers leading up to 1-0 – including the goal – then go into the big pot of the ‘drawing’ game state. In this case, the good ones for Team A and the bad ones for Team B.
These are the minutes where both teams are playing without being influenced by being ahead or behind (i.e. neither team is reacting to being a goal down and neither is reacting to being a goal up).
Add all those numbers up over the course of the season and we can gain some pretty interesting insights into how the scoreboard affects how teams are behaving – and crucially, how they’re performing.
Sticking with Nottingham Forest, they have been a great example this season of the importance of game state. In managing to get themselves a goal up so often, Nuno’s side have been able to take games into scenarios where they’re comfortable: defending stoutly in deeper areas, soaking up pressure, and then being able to sting teams on the counter.
Forest are a low-possession side when they’re drawing (41.2%), and that drops to very deferential 36.9% when they’re ahead. However, despite spending over 1,000 minutes in the lead and seeing so little of the ball, they don’t suffer against being on the back foot. Forest have conceded just 0.96 xG per 90 when leading, which is the fourth-best mark in the division (and having spent much more time defending leads than any of the sides ahead of them).
They don’t give up much, even when they’re starved of possession.
That’s the Nottingham Forest way, but how about teams who stay firmly on the attack after going ahead?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Arne Slot’s dominant Liverpool side top the bill here.
The Reds have outscored their opponents 23-9 when leading in the Premier League this season, as well as taking a league-high 51 more shots than their opposition when winning.
Slot’s side are not in the business of protecting leads; they’re all about extending them. Their xG difference of +11.9 tells us they consistently create better chances than they concede, despite already being up on the scoreboard.
Another team to take note of in terms of keeping their foot on the gas is Chelsea. Although they’re not quite in Liverpool’s league in defensive performance when ahead, Enzo Maresca’s side have created lots of quality chances in looking to extend leads. They’re one of only two sides – along with Liverpool – averaging 2+ xG per 90 when winning this term.
Meanwhile, the team who used to be the kings of stretching out their leads, Manchester City, aren’t looking quite so dominant these days. Pep Guardiola’s side now rank ninth in the Premier League this season for xG difference per 90 when leading (0.39).
Though they still rank first in the division for possession average when winning (57.8%) and when drawing (63.9%), the reigning champions have struggled to be as effective this term, despite not suffering big changes in their style of play depending on the game state.
In fact, it is one of Man City’s big rivals – Arsenal – who have seen the biggest swing in possession when drawing and winning this season.
Mikel Arteta’s side average 59.2% when winning, but drop off by over 10 percentage points once they’ve established their lead (48.8%).
Guardiola’s former assistant has become renowned for his pragmatism in more recent times, and the way they relax their grip on possession after taking the lead is another example of that.
How effective that has been, however, might be up for question.
Arsenal have only taken three more shots than they’ve faced when winning this term. When compared with title challengers Liverpool, who have outshot their opponents by 51 in a similar number of minutes leading, Arne Slot’s side are clearly winning the battle in opting for their attack being the best form of defence.
Any time we discuss whether Mikel Arteta has become too pragmatic, or whether Tottenham are too gung-ho when they’ve got a lead to protect, we’re already actively discussing the ideas related to ‘game state’ in many of our everyday football debates.
Though it might take a bit of time to get one’s head around it, we’re much more familiar with it than we realise.
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