NO-ONE saw it coming. Not the club, or the media, and certainly not the supporters concentrating their attentions on their other true love on Valentines evening.

Like a bolt from the blue last Friday it was announced that UEFA were imposing a two-year Champions League ban and a €30 million fine on Manchester City for manipulating sponsorship income. This harsh and dramatic ruling starkly contradicted what immediately went before it.

For the administrative body to postpone their decision from December suggested weakness on their part and around this time too it was reported that UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin had reached out to the club, pleading for them to admit to a ‘technical breach’ and accept a small fine. A few weeks prior to that Ceferin had been City’s guest of honour for the visit of Shakhtar Donetsk and as he sat next to chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak throughout it was widely viewed to be a thawing in relations between the warring parties.

In late November the US private equity giant Silver Lake bought a ten per cent stake in the City Football Group to the colossal tune of £389 million and their due diligence process assured them beyond reasonable doubt that no punitive measures were forthcoming while less than a fortnight ago City were eagerly monitoring Lionel Messi’s situation at Barcelona, hoping to pounce this summer with an exorbitant bid.

None of which suggests that City were anticipating any significant punishment and all of which led us to believe that a year-long investigation, that followed a series of leaked emails published in Der Spiegel which pointed to financial irregularities, would ultimately result in a face-saving exercise for UEFA and a slap on the wrist for the club.

Pep Guardiola to the #ManCity players:

“Whatever league we are in, I will still be here. Even if they put us in League Two, I will still be here. This is a time for sticking together."

[via @SkyKaveh] pic.twitter.com/TB0qdZn1RQ

— Man City Xtra (@City_Xtra) February 17, 2020

Instead we got this: an apocalyptic outcome for Manchester City, or at least that was how the media portrayed it. It took less than an hour for the first article to appear intimating that Pep Guardiola would soon be off, with Juventus the most likely destination as journalists purported to know the private thoughts of a man so inscrutable that even predicting his team selections amounts to a fool’s errand.

Their evidence it seemed was that a coach whose side is presently 25 points behind their rivals in the league has been looking a bit ‘antsy’ in training of late and now there was this bombshell to deal with. Seriously, that was their evidence. Thankfully, subsequent reporting has seen sense prevail and it would be a great surprise if the Catalan did not fulfil his contract that runs until 2021 irrespective of how recent developments play out.

Of a more openly speculative nature a player exodus was mooted and this was an understandable line of gossip given the circumstances though again it was one completely lacking in substance and then there was the loss of revenue highlighted and its probable ramifications. (At this point it should be said that overall the reporting of City’s penance has had an overtly gleeful tone that is unbecoming and frankly a little odd).

With City set to miss out on the vast fortunes that comes from participation in the Champions League that will have a real and negative impact on their transfer plans for the foreseeable future and this is true even if City’s appeal to CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) sees the punishment halved; a conclusion that is generally thought to be highly likely. A rebuild is necessary and several names were in the frame for next summer and for the club to be forced to cut their cloth right now is potentially cataclysmic.

Lastly, we come to the reputational damage done and again this is detrimental regardless of how things eventually pan out. If ADUG did indeed originally purchase Manchester City with any intention of ‘sportswashing’ it is a strategy that has spectacularly backfired and now their dirty laundry will forever be flapping in the wind, revealing a great big skid-mark. Also pertinent is that, fair or otherwise, from this day forward rival supporters will feel emboldened enough by Friday’s decision to dismiss City’s achievements as the result of cheating and that goes too for trophies yet to be won.

Perversely, the latter aspect might yet have an upside for the Blues but before we get to that let’s first touch on the CAS hearing, which is arguably another cause for optimism. Paris Saint-Germain's purchase of Kylian Mbappe and Neymar brought them to the attention of FFP investigators who recommended sanctions be taken yet UEFA’s adjudicatory panel disagreed. This displays clear double standards.

CAS meanwhile has described leaked comments made by UEFA’s chief financial investigator Yves Leterme that seemingly predetermined City’s fate as ‘worrisome’ and concluded that some aspects of their grievances are ‘not without merit’. These are heartening signs that an over-ruling of UEFA’s judgement is feasible.

"I think he will stay. The project here at City is not complete. I also think outside of City, where does Pep Guardiola go?"

Shaun Goater believes Pep Guardiola will remain in charge at the Etihad, even if Man City's two-year ban from European competition is upheld. pic.twitter.com/iPtvYpGH20

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) February 17, 2020

So why is City’s reputational damage a positive as much as it is unwelcomed? Ironically the answer to this partially revealed itself on social media, a platform hardly known for looking at the bigger picture.

As the news broke of City’s punishment the usual suspects from rival fan-bases furiously frothed at the mouth, demanding titles be stripped and the club sent packing to the lower leagues. Blues however were unnervingly sanguine and this can partly be attributed to a face-saving exercise of their own and partly also to their deep well of dark humour that kept them going through some desperate times pre-takeover. Mostly though it was because finally the gloves are off, the shadow boxing is over, and the real fight can begin.

Manchester City have been the pariahs of football ever since September 2008. They have been consistently demeaned and undermined; called the ‘whores of world football’ and disrespected then damned for being disrespectful when they won by large margins. Just three days ago a grubby little journalist called the club ‘grubby’ and that’s been the norm for far too long.

In defending their club deprived of all credit the fans have found themselves persistently belittled by the media at large. This past week they have been referred to as the ‘City social media militia’ with a further suggestion they are ‘led by troll farms paid for by the UAE’. They can’t have minds of their own of course nor have a salient point. Those distinct possibilities are not up for debate.  

As for the club itself it’s been a schizophrenic existence of being a fully paid-up member of an establishment that only looks down on them. That wants them to fail: wants these nouveau riche upstarts who are regarded only as a threat gone for good.

No more. That ends now. For the supporters there is no longer any need to consistently justify their club’s achievements because it is utterly pointless to do so. Similarly, now that the club is a directly affected party they can go after FFP and all of its errant and disingenuous intentions, opening up a Pandora’s Box that UEFA – along with the cartel of clubs that originally conceived it – would really rather be left well alone.

FFP is a protectionist racket; a drawbridge too far. It is a restriction of trade and investment that simply wouldn’t wash anywhere else but in a sport as corrupt as football. It restricts Everton’s spending despite them having a billionaire owner. It means that Leicester can afford to turn down £75m for Harry Maguire last summer but cannot spend that amount on a player even though they have the means to do so. It is a system rigged in favour of the elite designed to ensure they stay the elite.

In one of the leaked emails published by Der Spiegel, City’s chairman is quoted as saying he would be willing to spend £30 million on the fifty best lawyers in the world to sue UEFA for the next ten years. With the prolonged charade of faux-diplomacy over and the first shots fired that can now happen.

City are the perceived bad guys who can now go after the real bad guys and if the past few days has been dramatic just wait and see what is to come. Many would have you believe that this is the end of days for Manchester City. In fact the real, most meaningful story is only just beginning.