AFTER a fortnight of international ennui the Premier League returns with a bang this Saturday lunchtime with one of English football’s marquee match-ups playing out at Anfield.

It’s a fixture that in modern times has come to be dominated by the red half of Merseyside, and this was especially true every time the Toffees travelled across Stanley Park where a hex first formed, then annually became a tiresome talking point. Everton’s victory at the home of their neighbours two years ago ensured that we never have to hear of Kevin Campbell’s strike in 1999 again, and that’s something we should all be thankful for.

Still, their head-to-heads going right back to 2000 painfully reveals just how one-sided this fixture has been.

In the 21^st century, Everton have scored 0.6 goals per 90 at Anfield in the league, or a goal every 148 minutes. Liverpool have scored every 51 minutes.

That aforementioned triumph in 2021 was Everton’s only derby win across all comps since 2010.

Bringing things up to the present, Mo Salah has five goal involvements in his last six derbies and in their last two home encounters the Reds have restricted the Toffees to just a single shot on target each time.

Acknowledging all this therefore makes it is a surprise when we factor in another enduring trait, one that seems counter-intuitive to such superiority. Because this is the most drawn fixture of them all.

Since 2000, 19 of their 47 league meetings have ended all-square and only Chelsea v Manchester United can rival that. It gets odder too, because ten of those draws were goalless affairs. That means in the last 23 years a Merseyside derby has finished 0-0 a remarkable 21.5% of the time.

History also tells us this fixture has produced the most dismissals in the Premier League era. Yes to a red card given tempts at 22/5

Sean Dyche would love a draw this weekend, and he would crunch a Strepsil or three in celebration at a clean sheet, what with Everton finding them so hard to come by. Their most recent outing at home to Bournemouth brought their first of the season.

There is an irony to be found in this because finally, after several years of being short of firepower up front, and being overly reliant on an injury-plagued Dominic Calvert-Lewin to make the difference when fit, the Toffees now possess a plethora of threats going forward. And at this precise juncture, their defence has become uncharacteristically porous.

It is typical of a club that has become very well-acquainted with sod’s law in recent years.

With Liverpool scoring for fun and Everton posing a genuine threat, over 3.5 total goals is a shout at 26/25

Regardless, let’s focus on the positives, of which there are more than usual.

The form of James Garner is one, the 22-year-old putting in some excellent displays of late. Reimagined on the right, the midfielder is starting to establish himself as the player he once hinted he would become at Manchester United.

Abdoulaye Doucoure is another who has been pivotal to anything that has been good about Everton this term, scoring three from his last six and averaging 1.8 progressive carries per 90.

Add in Dwight McNeil marauding forward with trickery in his boots and Everton have a variety of ways to hurts sides now – especially on the counter – beyond looking to their number nine.

With both sides suspect defensively BTTS is a decent option for any bet builder. On its own it’s still worth considering at 4/6

At the back meanwhile, the consistency of Vitaliy Mykolenko deserves a mention. Only one player in the top-flight has made more successful tackles per 90 in 2023/24 and, typically solid down the left, his duel with Salah will go a long way to determining the outcome to the 243^rd Merseyside derby.

The suggestion that Everton have stopped under-performing compared to their xG is the last, and most meaningful, plus to take across the city.

Prior to putting three past Bournemouth going into the international break, Dyche’s men were averaging 15.4 shots per game but only converting one in 18 of them. According to Opta’s expected points model they should be fifth right now, ranking fourth for non-penalty xG.

They still have the third worse chance conversion rate in the league but recently rediscovering where the goal is bodes well ahead of this onerous challenge.

Over 0.5 goals for the visitors and over 2.5 corners should be backed at 29/20

And what a challenge it is, even leaving aside local acrimony and a deafening Anfield crowd.

With their only defeat this term heavily assisted by VAR in North London, Jurgen Klopp’s reconstructed side have torn into this campaign with a point to prove and, true to type, are doing so by scoring liberally.

Converting two-plus goals in all but two of their games to date is testament to that and by having Diogo Jota and Cody Gakpo back and available, Klopp has a full compliment of his attacking arsenal to go into battle with.

But of course it’s all about Salah, how can it not be given the explosive form he’s in? Incredibly, the Egyptian has scored or assisted 21 times in his last 20 league outings. This season he has contributed a direct goal involvement every 76.3 minutes.

It is a sustained prolificacy shared by his team too. It is now 18 games and counting since Liverpool last failed to score.

For all their struggles and woes in this fixture, Everton have done well to keep their neighbours at bay on 14 occasions since 2000, five times at Anfield.

Don’t expect that record to improve any further this Saturday.

Liverpool/Liverpool and over 1.5 shots on target for Salah offers up 21/10