“Not in my lifetime”. That’s what Sir Alex Ferguson declared when asked in 2009 if Manchester United would ever go into a derby as the underdog but the subsequent years have not been kind to the legendary Scot’s defiant stance.
Since his retirement four season’s later Manchester City have repeatedly and consistently entered neighbourly disputes as firm favourites and the same applies on this occasion too as the Blues prepare to head across town this Saturday for the 183rd meeting of the famous clubs.
City are a narrow 10/13 to prevail. In comparison United are a decent shout at 10/3.
This stark contrast rather overlooks the fact that United are currently above their rivals in the league table after ten games apiece and the last time this held true Miley Cyrus was topping the charts with Wrecking Ball. It also diminishes the significance of four straight wins for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men that has halted all talk of crisis after a substandard start to their campaign. Granted, they appear to be overly reliant on Bruno Fernandes to spark them into life and that’s a legitimate concern, while a recent trend for conceding first is unquestionably an issue. But those four victories have restored belief and considerably raised the spirits of Solskjaer’s side. They’re on a roll.
Last but by no means least, another factor that belies their underdog status is United’s impressive recent form in this fixture. In their last ten encounters United have won out five times to City’s four and that advantage has only sharpened since Solskjaer took the wheel with deserved wins enjoyed at both Old Trafford and the Etihad last term. Indeed, it can be stated uncontested that on taking charge of a flailing giant two years ago a coach who many perceive to be tactically limited has largely had the measure of Pep Guardiola, a genius in that regard.
If that surprises – and it still does when revisiting the five occasions this pair have shared a touchline – surely it also signifies that 10/3 is a tempting price for a home win? After all, if we forget about City’s overall supremacy across the last decade and discount too Guardiola’s stature, and instead focus only on the fixture, here we have one team with clear form for beating the other and a manager with form for tactically outmanoeuvring the other. Furthermore, the team with the more acute learned behaviour are on a four-game winning streak and boast up top Marcus Rashford, who in 2020/21 has been directly involved in a goal every 80 minutes in all competitions.
Rashford is 3/1 to score anytime this weekend.
They also possess a set-piece king in Fernandes along with Anthony Martial to call upon, a striker who has found the net the last three times he has started a Manchester derby. The last player to do that was Eric Cantona.
The French star is 13/4 to break his Premier League duck and score against Guardiola’s men.
All things considered then 10/3 is terrific odds and feel free to duly jump on. Except, before you do so, perhaps it’s wise to hold fire.
You should hold your fire because United’s twin victories over their rivals last season pale in pertinence to how they were achieved with both games merging almost into one, so similar were they.
An hour before both clashes the team line-ups were revealed and City supporters to a man, woman and child railed against the lack of protection for the defence, with solely Rodri stationed to man the midfield fort. United’s primary weapon was their ability to counter-attack and the same can be said of Solskjaer’s managerial acumen. This was playing exactly into their hands.
And so it came to pass. At Old Trafford, City lost 2-0 despite having 72.3% of the possession. They gained 11 corners to their host’s two. They limited United to just 294 passes throughout. In fact, the only stat they didn’t dominate on the final whistle was the most important of all – the result – and the same scenario played out almost to a tee at the Etihad three months earlier.
This was because United soaked up the pressure, defended in great numbers, and when the opportunities presented themselves they hit hard and fast on the break, deploying the searing pace at their disposal. It’s noteworthy that Daniel James started home and away against only a handful of teams last year. City were one.
“They did long balls on the counter-attack for Daniel James and Anthony Martial. They waited for our mistakes”. That was Guardiola’s summation following the second defeat. If only he’d learned the very straightforward lessons from the first.
In time though he did and the key takeaway ahead of this weekend’s game is that Solskjaer’s favoured strategy when taking on City is likely to be null and voided on this occasion. That leaves his team exclusively ducking and parrying, with no sucker punch to save them. That leaves the 10/13 for an away victory as very possibly the best option.
The reason for this is because an initially maligned ‘double-pivot’ in midfield featuring Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan is starting to make sense; it’s finally starting to click. In City’s last four competitive fixtures they have conceded just three shots on target, equating to one every 120 minutes, and more worrying still for opponents, the increased intensity in their advanced pressing – the main factor for the double pivot working better – has meant City’s attack has not suffered as a result. Indeed, the very opposite is true.
In their last two league games the Blues have converted 41% of their overall haul to date and just as relevant is when these goals have been scored. City have a propensity to get off the mark early with 12 of their 17 in the Premier League coming inside the opening 45 minutes. This is a common theme too incidentally when looking back over previous Manchester derbies with quick opening strikes the norm.
Couple this with United’s recent habit for making life difficult for themselves in the first period and the 5/4 for City to be leading at the break is arguably the best value bet of them all.
Once again it is Manchester City who go into this contest as the favourites. All things considered, that’s the right call.
