ONLY five countries navigated their Euro 2020 qualifying campaigns unbeaten. Three of them have reached the semi-finals. Two go head to head on Tuesday evening at Wembley.
Italy vs Spain has all the hallmarks of a classic in the making, pitting together two supremely watchable sides who are unfamiliar with the notion of defeat. Between them, they have lost only once in their last 61 fixtures and you can count the number of times they have squeezed past an opponent in mundane fashion on half a hand. Better yet, pulsing through the DNA of both nations is a propensity to implode when it really matters.
All of which means that, with the right wind and a bit of good fortune, neutrals might be in for a rare treat as they mentally and physically prepare for England’s seismic semi-final 24 hours later. It will be an entertaining diversion at worst, featuring two of the finest international collectives imaginable in a game of huge consequence. Should it fulfil its hype however, what awaits us is heightened drama we might conceivably still be harking back to many years from now.
And almost certainly it will be drama elevated by goals. No other team in the competition has put together more attacks than Spain or Italy. No other team can boast more attempts on goal. It impresses too that while they are the tournament’s top scorers with 12 and 11 respectively, neither possess a striker in the running to win the Golden Boot. Instead, seven players across the two teams have a couple of goals apiece as they spread their attacking remit around. Not for them a reliance on a Lukaku or Kane. Not for them a focal point but rather a democratic means of assault.
Both teams to score at 9/10 is a good, solid starting point for your matchday betting
It is an attacking democracy that has worked very well for both sides and was particularly evident in each of Italy’s knock-out games to date while Spain turned to their plethora of wingers to see them past Croatia. It is here though we must pause and finally address the elephant in the room ahead of this potentially era-defining clash: that of Spain’s wastefulness.
Lucho's reaction for Morata's open goal miss is too kind. pic.twitter.com/y5KVSRER84
— ™ (@highonmessi) June 4, 2021
It is undoubtedly true that La Roja have been profligate with the many chances they have carved out to reach this juncture. In their opener against Sweden three-quarters of the overall possession brought them no reward while 27 attempts on Switzerland’s goal in the quarter-final still necessitated a penalty shoot-out. It is also undeniable that Alvaro Morata is having a tournament to forget.
So perhaps it stands to reason that Luis Enrique’s men will struggle in the capital, by extending the logic that if they need numerous opportunities before converting past inferior fare, they will surely fall short when feeding off the scraps occasionally dropped by the most formidable rearguard in world football? For Spain to prevail they must be ultra-clinical here and they have proven themselves to be anything but.
Yet that reasoning doesn’t tell the whole story; far from it in fact. As stated, Spain are the competition’s leading goal-scorers with 12. In consecutive games against Slovakia and Croatia they put away five and this has afforded them their best goals-per-game ratio at a major tournament since 1986. And if Morata’s misses have become one of the talking points of the Euros we return to their multifaceted threat in the final third.
Take Ferran Torres as a prime example. The Manchester City wideman has scored seven in his last ten international outings and ended his domestic campaign with five in three for the league champions. Here he comes up against Emerson, a significant downgrade for the Azzurri after cruelly losing the magnificent Leonardo Spinazzola to a ruptured Achilles.
The 21-year-old is a tempting 4-1 to score anytime. Expect him to at least prominently feature.
We can safely conclude then that Spain are not consistently wasteful, a charge that has been consistently leveled at them. Instead, they are Jekyll and Hyde and if the more measured former shows up at Wembley don’t discount the prospect of a back-and-forth goal-fest.
Still, this Italian defence. What is left to say about them? Should Roberto Mancini’s side go on to win the tournament, in Chiellini and Bonucci they will have the oldest centre-back pairing to ever do so and perhaps there is a good omen in Portugal also having a veteran back-line five years ago.
Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. 107 and 110 appearances for Italy respectively. Over 10 years together at club level.
These two are gladiators, for whom age is but a number. The passion, the desire, the drive.
A partnership for the ages. pic.twitter.com/xKQauTnlEa
— EiF (@EiFSoccer) July 2, 2021
Ahead of the wizened Godfathers of catenaccio, Jorghino has covered more ground than any other player besides Spain’s Pedri and West Ham’s Tomas Soucek and these three Italian stalwarts has been chiefly responsible for Italy’s remarkable record that has led to just two concessions in 1265 minutes of football. Those two goals incidentally are worthy of caveat, one being a highly contestable penalty, the other a consolation scored deep into extra-time.
On such a solid foundation Italy have constructed 13 straight wins and are rightfully considered slight favourites here. It is important to note however, that this is as much for their fluid and adventurous forward options with Berardi and Chiesa particularly impressing. As a personal aside, I could happily watch Insigne twist and turn every day and twice on Sundays.
So, a classic for the ages potentially awaits, a meeting hopefully made even more memorable by posting a profitable return. In this regard a decent shout is to back Italy/Draw in the half time/full time market at 13/1. Spain have drawn 12 of their last 22 internationals and only lost once in the last six times they have fallen behind.
Under 3.5 cards at 19/20 meanwhile is a no-brainer even if the odds are on the slender side. Both Italy and Spain have averaged one caution apiece per game so far with 2.9 yellows per game handed out across the whole tournament. With this being a semi players will be fearful of missing out on a possible final and rein in the cheap fouls.
