NOT even a global pandemic, it seems, can quell the churn of football’s transfer rumour mill. While the action on the pitch is on hiatus, speculation over big-money moves – whenever they may eventually be able to take place – remains rife.
Whether it’s Manchester United’s reported £400,000-a-week offer to Jadon Sancho, the destination of coveted Birmingham City teenager Jude Bellingham, or Liverpool target Timo Werner’s future, transfer gossip is filling much of the void left by the global sporting shutdown.
And Harry Kane’s surprisingly honest comments on his future in an Instagram Live interview with Jamie Redknapp have added an unexpected element to the transfer talk, with the Tottenham striker suggesting he won’t hang around in north London if Spurs can’t match his ambition.
"It's one of those things, I couldn't say yes, I couldn't say no,” Kane said when asked whether he could ever see himself leaving Tottenham. “I love Spurs, I'll always love Spurs. But it's one of those things – I've always said if I don't feel we're progressing as a team or going in the right direction, then I'm not someone to just stay there for the sake of it.
"I'm an ambitious player, I want to improve, I want to get better, I want to become one of the top, top players. It all depends on what happens as a team and how we progress as a team. So it's not a definite I'm going to stay there forever – but it's not a no either."
Should Kane decide his future lies away from Spurs, there will only be a select few clubs able to offer him a new home. Still only 26 and having established himself as one of the very best strikers in world football over the last five years, Tottenham would surely demand a fee well in excess of £100m for the England captain, meaning only elite of the elite would be able to afford him.
In the Premier League, that means his potential suitors would be limited to Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United.
Four years Sergio Aguero’s junior, Kane would surely be high on Pep Guardiola’s list of desired long-term replacements for the Argentine, but it would require smashing their comparatively modest club transfer record, set by Rodri’s £62.8m arrival from Atletico Madrid last year. And Liverpool – whose front three of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah is arguably the most feared forward line in the game – appear to have RB Leipzig’s Werner earmarked if any attacking additions are required.
United, then, represent the most obvious fit. Although their recent struggles perhaps make them a less attractive potential destination than City and Liverpool, it is conceivable that a No.9 of Kane’s calibre, with the likes of Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba feeding into him, could go some way toward restoring lost glories.
Tottenham are confident they will be able to keep star forward Harry Kane beyond this season.
Spurs value Kane at £200m and feel that teams won't be willing to spend big this summer due to the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Daily Mail pic.twitter.com/Vq5Fy77OFw
— Goal (@goal) April 1, 2020
Of course, Spurs would be hugely reluctant to part ways with their star player. But there is an analytics-based argument for cashing in on Kane sooner rather than later. Although Kane’s record of 11 league goals from 20 games in 2019-20 represents a return most strikers would be more than happy with, the underlying statistics behind his performances suggest he has not been at his best – and for time.
According to understat.com’s numbers, Kane’s expected goals per 90 minutes (xG90) average this season is lower than any previous campaign since his breakthrough in 2014/15, down at 0.4 from 0.8 last season, and significantly lower even than his previous low of 0.6 in that 2014/15 season. He is shooting less frequently, too, with just 2.87 effort on goal per 90, down from 3.77 last season and 5.32 the year before.
And when penalties – which have always accounted for a significant portion of his scoring opportunities – are removed from the equation, a decline in Kane’s ability to generate chances for himself can be traced further back. His non-penalty expected goals per 90 (NPxG90) for this season is 0.32, and last season’s xG average almost halves to 0.48 when penalties are disregarded. By way of comparison, Kane’s NPxG90 for 2017-18 was 0.71, and 0.54 the term before that.
Tottenham’s decline as a team over the last 18 months is reflected somewhat in these numbers, with those around Kane proving less able to get him the ball in scoring positions. But the statistics still paint an alarming picture of a player who, even at his relatively young age, carries the wear and tear of rarely being allowed a summer’s rest due to international obligations and numerous times having been rushed back from injury.
Even at reduced productivity, though, Kane is still among the best strikers in Europe. Losing him – particularly if it is to a Premier League rival – would be an enormous blow for Spurs and an indictment of their ambition.
As the Premier League table sits frozen with Spurs down in eighth place, seven points outside the top four, Kane’s comments should be taken as a shot across the bow to manager Jose Mourinho and chairman Daniel Levy. Kane will not endure Tottenham’s current mediocrity for long.
