IF favourites Manchester City beat rivals Manchester United in the FA Cup final, then there will be three additional European spaces for Premier League teams outside the top four that will be in the Champions League next season. It will mean that teams finishing in fifth and sixth gain Europa League entry and seventh place will qualify for the Conference League.
Now, the top four in the Premier League are all but guaranteed to stay that way with the top three miles clear and fourth-place Aston Villa currently seven points ahead of Tottenham in fifth.
Therefore, lets take a look at who might finish in fifth, sixth and seventh, starting with Tottenham (60 points). Having lost their last four league games, only relegated Sheffield United (5) are currently on a longer losing run in the Premier League. Spurs will need to stem the tide and gain three or four points from their remaining three games to stay in fifth, as they do have a cushion of four points ahead of Newcastle (56 points). The Opta supercomputer gives them an 86% chance of staying in fifth, although that percentage could fall drastically if they fail to beat Burnley (themselves fighting to avoid relegation) on Saturday, given they face Man City at the Etihad in their penultimate game.
Of the four sides between fifth and eighth, Newcastle and Chelsea are certainly in the better form, taking 12 and 10 points respectively from their last five games, while they both have 19 points across their last 10. Newcastle have won five of their last seven Premier League games (D1 L1), scoring 19 goals (an average of 2.7 per game), while their goal difference of +22 is clear of both Chelsea (+11) and Man Utd (-3) and could play a part in securing that Europa League spot. The Magpies have a 58% chance of finishing sixth according to the Opta predicter, with Chelsea (22%) and Man Utd (12%).
Chelsea, fresh off the back of consecutive Premier League London derby victories without conceding (against Tottenham and West Ham), will be hoping to finish the season with a flourish after much inconsistency throughout the campaign. The team with the youngest average starting XI (24yrs 232d) will need to perform better away from home than they have recently if they want to cement a European place for next season.
With trips to Nottingham Forest and Brighton up next, the Blues have only won two of their last 12 away league games (D4 L6), conceding 29 goals in total in this run (an average of 2.4 per game). They have a 51% chance that they’ll stay in seventh and potentially gain a Conference League spot (if Man City win the FA Cup).
However, If the league were to be decided by Opta’s expected points simulator, which uses expected goals and the quality (xG) of team’s shots taken in their matches, Chelsea would be in fourth place which gives an insight into how often Chelsea have created much better scoring opportunities than their opponents in their Premier League games this season. If Chelsea can continue in their rich vein of form and marry that with efficiency in front of goal they could sneak into a Europa League place come May 19th.
PREMIER LEAGUE – OPTA BET BUILDER
The guys have returned, scouring their records and using their incredible database of facts and stats to determine the best bets from a selection of Premier League games this weekend.
Check out their fancies, which include a 19/1 fourfold, here!
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