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FA cup poss

TRYING to determine the line-ups for this Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final between Liverpool and Manchester City is like nailing jelly to a wall, using a hammer made of jelly.

Either side of the fixture are must-not-lose Champions League and Premier League commitments for both sides and if the Reds have the slightly easier task going into Wembley’s clash – courtesy of a 3-1 first-leg victory in Portugal – they have the tougher test just three days after. On Tuesday they host Manchester United at Anfield, a woefully out-of-form nemesis but a nemesis all the same.

From canvassing the respective fan-bases the general thinking is that neither Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola will do a madness at the weekend though two or three changes apiece from their heavyweight tussle at the Etihad feels inevitable. For Liverpool, Roberto Firmino may well start, a player with a proven track record in this game and furthermore a player who was due to feature more prominently last Sunday until his lack of training ruled that out. Elsewhere, logic suggests any resting of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson or Fabinho may be reserved for Benfica, crucial as they are to Liverpool’s game-plan vs City.

Identifying who might miss out or come in for the Blues is more difficult because at first glance Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez are contenders to step up until it’s recalled they are Champions League favourites of Guardiola. Can they play both games? Of course, but will they? That’s hard to say. It’s also well worth recalling that last season City faced Chelsea in a FA Cup semi mere days after a Champions League quarter-final. The Catalan made eight changes and his team were disconnected and comfortably beaten. Lessons will have been learned.

Still, when trying to predict the elevens we are dealing in conjecture so perhaps it’s best to focus on those who undoubtedly will be handed leading roles. As already mentioned, Liverpool’s full-backs-cum-wingers are key, boasting a remarkable 32 assists combined across all comps, while Fabinho will once again be given the unenviable job of trying to tether Kevin De Bruyne and co. Thiago meanwhile caused City problems and will do so again and the same goes for Mo Salah who may have been underwhelming at the weekend, but the Egyptian goal-king has scored seven in 14 in this fixture.

As for Guardiola’s collective, the obvious standouts are De Bruyne and Kyle Walker, the latter for his pace to get behind Robertson, and for his pace to stymie counters. Rodri will knit everything together and don’t underestimate the importance of Bernardo Silva who out-ran everybody on Sunday in a contest where he always outruns everybody. Lastly, there is Raheem Sterling, who has started 12 of the 14 games against Liverpool he has been available for since Guardiola took the reins.

Salah is 33/20 to score anytime while for City, their leading scorer this season Mahrez is a decent shout at 41/20

If the full rollcall of personnel is hard to pin down that is less true of the strategies we can expect to see implemented. On Sunday, both teams played atypical to their usual selves, with City going a touch more direct, floating long diagonals to capitalise on their opponent’s narrow back-line and this worked a treat, especially in the first-half where the hosts carved out the vast majority of the best chances. Liverpool, by Klopp’s own admission, were much more considered than normal and it was a policy that left them flat and too often exposed.

It is reasonable to suggest therefore that City will stick to the plan while Liverpool will revert to their factory setting, attempting to unsettle their rivals from the off thus preventing them from quickly finding a rhythm. And it is reasonable to suggest that if this does play out then Saturday’s encounter may be even more thrilling and engrossing than the classic so recently witnessed.

Or at least that’s the hope, so long as the venue is not a consideration. The last six league meetings in this thoroughly modern duopoly has produced a healthy 3.8 goals per game. Compare that to the two 1-1 draws held at Wembley in recent times, games that succumbed to cliché by having one team cancelling out the other.

Indeed, five of their meetings since October 2018 have finished honours even. 33/10 is available for another score-draw

Before we turn our attention to 25 hours later, and the all-London affair of Chelsea v Crystal Palace, some housekeeping to factor in.

Go for a low corner count on Saturday, a rationale that incidentally applies to every occasion these sides meet. In the last five match-ups Liverpool and City have won 5.6 corners per game combined. Go for a low corner count.

A late Liverpool strike cannot be discounted either given that the Reds have scored 19 goals in all competitions beyond the 80th minute.

The angle to absolutely commit to however concerns possession. In the last three contests featuring these sides, City have averaged 53.7% of the ball and on the lush, huge Wembley pitch that is a trend we can anticipate continuing.

City are 4/5 to have over 51.5% of the ball possession this weekend.

A day after the carnage comes the curio, in the form of Palace taking on a Chelsea outfit that has reserved most of their drama of late for off the pitch.

That was until a shocking 4-1 reverse at home to Brentford bled into a Champions League loss to Real Madrid but just as the knives were sharpening and whispers of collapse were loudening they went and blasted six past sorry Southampton. Was this trouncing a reaction exclusively to what preceded it? We will know more in North London against a side Chelsea have already beaten twice this term.

What we are sure of is that Kai Havertz is on fire presently, scoring seven in his last nine outings, and beyond doubt too is the Blues’ FA Cup pedigree. Astonishingly, they have reached 45% of this competition’s finals in the 21st century.

Havertz will not be the only striker at Wembley bang in form with Wilfried Zaha firing six in his last seven and all-round Patrick Vieira’s Eagles have been flying in recent weeks even if they were temporarily grounded last Sunday at Leicester. The general optimism surrounding Palace however must be tempered by the possible absences of Michael Olise and Tyrick Mitchell who are each 50/50 at the time of writing. To be deprived of one would be impactful. To be deprived of both, seismic.

Much of Palace’s success since losing to Chelsea back in mid-February has been founded on bright starts and early goals and it was notable that Vieira blamed last weekend’s defeat on their failure to extend on this habit. In five games unbeaten prior to their poor showing, the Eagles scored 70% of their goals in the first period and so it’s highly relevant that half of Chelsea’s last 12 goals have come inside the opening half an hour.

Expect early drama in a contest that absolutely doesn’t deserve its second billing across a potentially fabulous and riveting weekend of football.

Back over 1.5 goals in the first half at 9/5

 

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