HAVE England become flat-track bullies under Gareth Southgate?
It’s a pertinent question with Ukraine awaiting in Rome on Saturday evening, for a Euro 2020 quarter-final that many are expecting to end in victory for the Three Lions, even if it will inevitably be tense and tight along the way.
Granted, nobody is actually saying a last four spot is there for the taking for fear of jinxing it but our confidence is betrayed by the terminology being employed. It would be typical if England blow it now having found themselves in the easy half of the draw. Typical. Easy. These are adjectives that tacitly acknowledge that while Ukraine are anything but minnows, they are in the same wheelhouse as nations Southgate’s men have routinely dispensed with in recent years.
Andriy Shevchenko’s side are ranked just a couple of places higher than Tunisia, the team that is often used to example why Southgate’s managerial acumen shouldn’t be overly lauded. “I mean, who did they face in that World Cup? Let’s start with Tunisia…”. They are ranked lower than Austria, who were used for an experimental run-out prior to this tournament. If we’re being brutally honest no Ukrainian player would get into England’s strongest starting eleven, even if Malinovskyi, Yarmolenko and Yeremchuk are serious ballers you’d happily watch all day.
So, back to the question: are England flat-track bullies? Do they comfortably beat the rest but typically struggle against the best?
The encouraging news – for the short-term at least, with this weekend’s momentous clash in mind – is yes, they probably are, and furthermore, they are extremely good at it.
England are a tempting 23/5 to win 2-0 inside the 90 minutes
During Southgate’s five-year tenure, England have played teams ranked 20th or worse on 33 occasions. They have lost only once and kept a clean sheet in 72.7% of the fixtures. The aggregate score-line is a thoroughly comprehensive 88 – 13.
When they have come up against their immediate peers however, it’s a very different story. Denied the opportunity to punch down, England have won only nine of their 25 meetings against the world’s elite and if we’re being brutally honest again, rarely excelled. In barely a handful of those games did a side ranked the fourth best on the planet put in a performance that justified their status.
In Southgate’s defence we are hardly in unfamiliar territory here. An England fan’s lot is to be quietly confident ahead of facing an inferior foe while coming up against an equal usually elicits dread and pessimism at being found out. Also, in the manager’s defence is his actual back-line which has been consistently outstanding for much of his occupancy and there does appear to be double-standards afoot regarding the Three Lion’s biggest strength.
When assessing England’s 16 clean sheets in their last 20 games perhaps people are too quick to point out that some of these shut-outs were at the expense of ‘yer San Marinos’. Italy’s fortitude meanwhile has been praised to the heavens and can be credited as the main reason why Roberto Mancini’s team is being widely backed to win the tournament. Does anyone really believe the Azzurri have played Brazil and France every international break?
Putting inherent cynicism to one side, Harry Maguire and company have not conceded now for nine-and-a-half hours and that is a foundation on which success is built.
Undercutting this, is the appreciation that their sustained solidity must continue if England have any hope of going all the way this summer, given how shot-shy they’ve been up front. It concerns that Yarmolenko and Malinovskyi have had the same amount of attempts on target as the entire England collective and its startling that Scotland still have 15 more attempts to their name, despite playing a game less. Against Ukraine, it is essential that Harry Kane gets more touches of the ball in the opening 30 minutes than the meagre two when he faced Germany at Wembley last Tuesday.
Thankfully, he very likely will, because when competing with inferior opposition England tend to start brightly. They have scored 31 of their last 50 goals against non-top ten ranked sides in the first half.
England are 9/10 to be leading at the break
To be clear, just in case any of the above paints Ukraine too meekly as underdogs, they are of course dangerous. Unbeaten in their qualifying campaign, they can be exhilarating in transition and furthermore possess a unity of spirit that shone through in their drawn-out bettering of Sweden.
But England restricted their group opponents to an average of 0.58 xGA while Germany were limited to just two big chances. For Ukraine to prevail they must be clinical and though they are eminently pleasing on the eye and technically astute, they are not that.
As a hors d’oeuvre to England’s summer-defining clash, Denmark v Czech Republic offers up plenty of intrigue.
The Czechs have exceeded all expectations to this point and have greatly impressed into the bargain with Thomas Holes brilliant in their shock defeat of Holland. Reconfigured as a holder after years spent full-backing, his midfield dust-up with Pierre-Emile Hojljerb – who has similarly enjoyed a storming tournament to date – will be well worth tuning in for.
Holes is 16/1 to repeat his feat against Holland and give an assist
Even so, it’s hard to shake a feeling that Jaroslav Silhavy’s well-organised unit may well hit their ceiling here, even if they can be expected to go down fighting.
The Danes remain emotionally-charged following the awful Christian Eriksen drama and the manner in which they have channeled their trauma into wave after wave of positive, adventurous football is nothing short of inspirational. Only Spain and Italy have put together more attacks. No team has hit the target more often with 30 shots either troubling or defeating keepers. A total of 62 goals in their last 25 games is a fantastic return for a team without a stand-out centre-forward.
Therefore, it has to be goals that we focus on when backing Denmark on Saturday and though Czech Republic will have their moments consider that the Red and White have only conceded once in the first half in their previous 16 games.
A team with a cause, Denmark are 5/1 to score over 2.5 goals
