WHEN studying England’s line-ups in recent years a couple of things come to light.

Most pertinent, going into his seventh year as national boss Gareth Southgate appears to be far less inclined to experiment these days, and even less inclined to make sweeping changes.

Against Scotland in last month’s friendly, there were six different faces to the side that took on Ukraine three days earlier, and if that seems like a lot, in previous times there would have been two or three more.

In the other two international double-headers post-World Cup, Southgate made just three changes apiece going from one game into the next and though it’s not especially relevant here, it would be interesting to know what club managers make of this.

Because with Southgate set to walk after next summer’s Euros it feels like he is now much less disposed to manage the minutes of a club’s star player. If Jude Bellingham is fit then Jude Bellingham starts, despite the prodigious midfielder playing an awful lot of football at a young age. The same goes for Harry Kane too and we’ll get to him shortly.

Staying with the attacking options, what surprises when revisiting the last six England fixtures – indeed, this has been going on for ages – is that for a manager who likes to govern the Three Lions like a club side, affording better equilibrium and consistency, he has struggled to commit to a regular first-choice down the left.

Post-Qatar, Maddison has played there. Foden has played there. Rashford has played there, as too has Grealish.

Of this quartet – all of whom have been picked in the latest squad – James Maddison is unquestionably the player in form, with a joint Premier League-high of five assists and 3.1 key passes per 90 for Spurs. Subsequently, he will likely be reserved for Italy next Tuesday.

Ordinarily therefore that would leave Phil Foden in the frame, but he will probably be deployed on the right to compensate for the loss of Bukayo Saka, again almost certainly on Tuesday. This Friday then, Jarrod Bowen may be given another chance to shine, the Hammers star contributing a goal involvement every 120 minutes in 2023/24.

All of which leaves Marcus Rashford as the big favourite to start on the other flank, and let’s not forget how he linked up brilliantly with Bellingham at Hampden Park.

Back Rashford to score anytime at 13/10

So to Kane. Time was when England’s record goal-scorer would be rested for friendlies, to allow Southgate the opportunity to run the rule over his deputies. Yet oddly that doesn’t seem to happen anymore.

Against Scotland, Bayern’s replacement Lewandowski started, quite unnecessarily it has to be said, with Callum Wilson getting only a six minute cameo, and if this suggests that Ollie Watkins will miss out at Wembley the Aston Villa striker can consider that immensely unfair.

In 2023, only Erling Haaland and Kane have fired more Premier League goals, and with six goal involvements in his last three league outings, the 27-year-old must be brimming with confidence.

Let’s hope he features, because even with Southgate less keen on trialing understudies these days, it feels like a no-brainer.

Don’t bank on Southgate doing the right thing. Kane is 10/11 to have over 1.5 shots on target this Friday

In midfield meanwhile, a pattern has recently formed that sees Kalvin Phillips and Jordan Henderson play one game apiece across an international week, the latter usually relied upon for the bigger game. That puts the Manchester City outcast in the reckoning to face the Socceroos.

Then there’s Trent Alexander-Arnold, who was outstanding against Malta and North Macedonia back in June but perhaps it’s telling that Bellingham wasn’t available for those fixtures. Instinct says the Liverpool man starts on Friday but that is stated with limited conviction.

Lastly, at the back, Southgate would love to pair John Stones and Harry Maguire in both games this week but the nature of Stones’ recovery means he will likely be held back for the Azzurri.

That means Marc Guehi will very possibly step in, to continue a partnership with Maguire that impressed against Malta and Ukraine. England conceded only one shot on target across those 180 minutes.

Indeed, restricting their opponents to wayward attempts has become a hallmark of England in recent months, a development that bodes extremely well. Remarkably, in their six games since Qatar, the Three Lions have faced only two shots on goal.

Under 2.5 shots on target for the visitors and Australia most cards offers up 21/20

This in itself should greatly concern Australia, who come into this friendly in middling form and minus a reliable goal-scorer to turn defeats to draws and draws into victories. Their last 10 goals have all come from different sources.

Having exceeded all expectations at the World Cup, Graham Arnold’s men have hardly come crashing down to earth, instead losing narrowly to Argentina – as they did too in Qatar – and holding Mexico to an entertaining draw. But with no players who feature in Europe’s big five leagues they are for sure serious underdogs here, with a solid structure and willing runners their best attributes.

They will be difficult to break down but they will be broken down.

England have scored 2+ goals before the break in five of their last six. Back over 1.5 first-half goals for the hosts at 7/4