Euro 2022 has not gone entirely to plan for Spain, the tournament favourites prior to a ball being kicked.

Losing their star striker, Jenni Hermoso going into the tournament was a huge blow, and then three days before their opening game against Finland, Alexia Putellas succumbed to an ACL injury in training, a monumental set-back that can alter a team’s destiny. Even accounting for Spain’s wealth of talent, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner was the main reason why La Roja were priced up as favourites in the first place. She made a very good team a great one on its day.

How coach Jorge Vilda responded to these cruel misfortunes has raised some eyebrows with Patri Guijarro deployed advanced of her usual holding role while defender Laia Aleixandri has been asked to fill in as a six. To compensate for Hermoso’s absence up front, Vilda has mixed and matched, all the while leaving Claudia Pina and Amaiur Sarriegi on the bench. That feels peculiar considering that between them these two young prodigies boasted 51 goal involvements in the Primera Division Femenina last term.

Across three games there have been three different configurations and such experimentation is typically witnessed in friendlies leading up to major tournaments, not in a group stage. Naturally therefore, such rejigging has impacted on performances and results.

That was never going to be the case against Finland and sure enough, a routine 4-1 dismissal ensued, but then there was a loss to Germany – Spain’s first defeat since March 2020 – meaning a win or draw was needed in their meeting with Denmark. With the Danes causing problems on the counter, it took a last-minute header from Marta Cardona to see Spain through.

All told, there has been plenty of style and that doesn’t surprise given their strict adherence to – and mastery of – tiki-taka, but there’s been too little substance to go with it and if this has been a charge levelled at La Roja in the past, it’s an imbalance that seems to be exacerbated at present. In the tournament so far, Spain have strung together 59 passing sequences of ten or more which is twice that accumulated by Norway, Holland or Germany. But in their last two outings, Spain have mounted 107 attacks and had 30 attempts on goal with only Cardona’s cute header to show for it.

They have, in short, become a cliché of themselves: a team that creates beautiful art but is too often unable to sell it, and lacking a cutting edge they now must face a defence protected by the ferociously good Keira Walsh that has conceded just three in 17 games under Sarina Wiegman. At stake, a semi-final place. At stake, destiny.

Suggested bets

Spain have been wasteful but are unlikely to draw a blank at the Amex. Don’t rule out either a late strike, with five of their last 10 goals scored beyond the 80th minute. Both teams to score should be seriously considered at evens.

All of this will provide England with a great deal of encouragement and maybe most of all the genuine threat posed by Denmark on the break, but before we go too far in simplifying this encounter, we must acknowledge that only one side has come close to matching Spain’s passing stats, that being the Lionesses. This is not a team that likes to be without the ball, not when there is so much fun to be had with it.

Even so, we can safely surmise that Spain will largely boss possession, and that England will be well-organised and patient in response, looking to capitalise in the right moments. In this regard, Lauren Hemp and Beth Mead will be key, hitting swiftly on the counter, and both should scare Spain, their defence hardly blessed with lightning pace. Hemp is a tempting 33/10 to score anytime, adding to her tap-in v Norway.

Indeed, England’s attacking prowess as a whole should concern their opponents, with a goal scored every 19 minutes at the Euros to date. Up front, Ellen White will put in the hard yards at the Amex this Wednesday, pulling Spain’s back-line this way and that, and then no doubt Alessio Russo will come on, the Manchester United forward converting three times already off the bench. Behind and around this formidable duo, Fran Kirby will cleverly create while in Mead, England possess the stand-out star of the Euro group games, scoring five and assisting twice.

In fact, when widening our scope, it can be argued that, aside from Wiegman testing positive for Covid, this has been the perfect opening fortnight for the Lionesses, one that would have been keenly hoped for beforehand.

Granted, nerves were prevalent in their opening bow to Austria but the three points were never in doubt and there followed two ruthless deconstructions that showcased the Lionesses’ breadth of attacking intent. The former, an eight-goal mauling of Norway will live long in the memory.

The last meeting between these sides back in February ended goalless. It won’t this time. Back over 2.5 goals at 59/50

The players are unified and highly motivated, with not one of them so far under-par. The crowds meanwhile are bang up for it, noisily generating an atmosphere that inspires, not inhibits.

Let’s not get too carried away here but if they progress past Spain – and they should be backed to – then it might just be time to start dreaming.

It’s rare for a correct score to be recommended but an exception can be made for 3-1 to England at 15/1.