ARSENAL were merely a goal down to West Ham on Boxing Day when their character was once more brought into question. This, so said every commentator with a mic at their disposal, would be a test of their mettle as the title race arced into the back straight.
Of course, Mikel Arteta’s men sailed through their latest stress-test, blasting three goals in a short burst of supreme football and it’s not the first time this season they have shown admirable resilience, and not the first time either they have scored in quick succession. On seven occasions in 2022/23, Arsenal have converted twice-over within 15 minutes and this ability to go up a gear when it really matters will serve them very well as opponents increasingly seek smash-and-grabs at the Emirates, fearful of a genuine title contender.
As for their mental strength – a dominant narrative that is entirely understandable given how they imploded late-on last season – the Gunners conceded early in the second half to Fulham back in August, just as pundits were talking them up, and they robustly responded with a brace. Against Aston Villa and Spurs, they saw leads cancelled out only to go up a level and prevail.
Following another example of fortitude shown after returning from a six-week hiatus, perhaps from now until bums get particularly squeaky this spring, we should reassess stale stereotypes and accept this is an Arsenal collective that possesses as much substance as style. And back them accordingly.
Over 1.5 goals for the Gunners at the Amex this weekend is well-priced at 23/25.
It’s an iron-clad belief in themselves that is inspired by Bukayo Saka – who in turn is presently inspired by his own World Cup performances – and the 21-year-old was again superb this week, darting between centre-back and full-back at every opportunity and adding to his season’s tally that now equates to 15 direct goal involvements in 15 starts for club and country.
Martin Odegaard meanwhile is fated to be the best performing Premier League player this term to not get anything like the praise he deserves, the Gunners captain again highly influential on Boxing Day. The Norwegian former wunderkind is averaging 2.1 key passes this campaign.
It was however Eddie Nketiah’s strike that most grabbed the attention, the England Under 21 international handed the unenviable role of understudy thrown into a smash-hit show.
11/11 – Eddie Nketiah has scored 11 goals in his last 11 starts for Arsenal in all competitions at the Emirates, notching his 11 goals from just 16 shots on target. Clinical. pic.twitter.com/0V7QEdy1SZ
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 26, 2022
With Gabriel Jesus expected to be out for two months minimum it falls on Nketiah to produce, and though he lacks the Brazilian’s ability to carve out chances from chaos, on the goal-front he can be of invaluable service. Impressively, he has notched eight in his last 10 starts across all comps.
The considerable contributions of Thomas Partey and Ben White this season also warrant a mention, the former driving the dream, the latter discarding his international troubles to again put in a colossal display down Arsenal’s right, but for all that the Gunners justify lavish acclaim to this juncture it is here we must include a caveat, one they are entirely blameless for.
Because while it was pertinent that Arteta’s side picked up where they left off, and though this surely means their title-challenging credentials should no longer be doubted, it was in truth a triumphant return against West Ham. A team that went into the fixture with a miserable 4.5% chance conversion rate. A team that went into the fixture thoroughly miserable.
It is an exceedingly tough four-game sequence, from New Year’s Eve to the end of January that will tell us a good deal more. Perhaps it will tell us everything.
It’s a definitive litmus test that begins with Brighton away on Saturday evening, which feels apt because they are another side who are – on paper at least – over-achieving with everyone expecting the other foot to fall sometime soon.
Both teams reside in the top six of the fair play table. Go for under 9.5 fouls by Arsenal at 3/4.
When the chief architect of their rise Graham Potter supposedly upgraded to Chelsea in September, it was then that everyone anticipated an excellent return of 2.1 points-per-game to end for the Seagulls, and with consecutive losses to Spurs and Brentford arriving quickly into Roberto De Zerbi’s tenure, the naysayers were beginning to feel a little smug.
Only then the Italian’s tweaks and revisions on an already successful formula started to have a substantial effect, with a 4-1 drubbing of Chelsea undoubtedly a season’s high point. Three wins from four is testimony to the notable extensions that have been built on Potter’s edifice.
What most stands out from De Zerbi’s methods is the ease in which he finds solutions to problems, and this was evidenced on Boxing Day when a south coast derby beckoned minus Brighton’s World Cup-winning star Alexis Mac Allister.
With Danny Welbeck also unavailable, De Zerbi went with a false nine, condensing the midfield so as to nullify a Southampton midfield that would be mid-table were it not consistently let down by a defence that can’t defend, and an attack that cannot score.
Consequently, Brighton added 8% onto their season’s possession average and controlled the game throughout.
It is a strategy we can expect to see replicated at the Emirates, with Mac Allister and Welbeck again absent, only here the Seagulls are additionally deprived of the suspended Moises Caicedo, whose three key tackles per game, and 1.3 interceptions have proven pivotal to Brighton’s over-achieving.
That feels like a weakness too far as this year’s usurpers-elect for a top six berth host a team on the cusp of making history. This feels like a 12th away win of 2022 for Arsenal but with Brighton making it difficult every step of the way.
A bet builder backing Arsenal to win but for BTTS offers up a tempting 14/5.