WHEN Aston Villa impressively won at Spurs at the tail-end of November – a result that propelled them into fourth spot – all eyes turned to their fixture list to see who they had coming up.
Bournemouth away. Tricky but very possibly surmountable. And then, immediately after, not allowing for any suspense to build, or doubts to continue from the cynical among us, there they were. Manchester City and Arsenal, both at Villa Park, within three days of one another.
For all that Villa have been transformed under Unai Emery, and for all that they have been consistently excellent, amassing 2.1 points-per-game since early February, this was their litmus test; a pair of auditions that wouldn’t tell us much about their quality – because we know all about that already – but would reveal a great deal concerning their substance.
Are they genuine top four contenders, the real deal? Or are they riding a prolonged crest of a wave? Momentum has taken sides very far indeed in the past before coming almightily unstuck against complete, elite opponents.
So, did they pass their first audition on Wednesday evening? It’s fair to say they aced it, and then some.
Making last season’s treble-winners look decidedly ordinary, Villa restricted Haaland and company to just two shots across 95 largely one-sided minutes. An unheard of stat. A ridiculous stat given that City averaged 16.5 shots per 90 going into the contest.
Moreover, at the other end, displaying relentless ambition, and a directness that will trouble any team, great or good, Villa fired the most shots City have faced in the Pep Guardiola era.
An onlooker not attuned to football would have assumed it was the team in claret and blue who won the Champions League last May. They would have been shocked to discover otherwise.
Over 4.5 shots on target by the hosts tempts at 6/5 if they pick up where they left off on Saturday
It could be argued, incidentally, that these auditions are not necessarily required anyway, not given the manner in which they play, irrespective of results and an unbeaten streak at home that now stretches to 14 games.
This is clearly a side that has wholly bought in to their manager’s methods and furthermore enjoy executing the plan on a weekly basis. From the successful football it has produced they now have unshakable faith in it, and furthermore unshakable faith in themselves.
That is one hell of a combination. For any coach, it’s the motherload.
When noting the form players to watch this Saturday, Ollie Watkins is an obvious place to start, even if the forward’s main contribution midweek was his miles covered. The 27-year-old has been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 16 appearances at Villa Park in the league. He has previously scored four in seven against the Gunners.
Leon Bailey meanwhile certainly caught the eye, terrorizing the Blues down the right flank and doing so intelligently too. The flying winger could get some joy for the second game running given that Arsenal’s one glaring weakness is down their defensive left, with Oleksandr Zinchenko inverting into midfield and prone to giving the ball away.
In the middle of the park, John McGinn was magnificent on Wednesday evening, but overall it’s his partner Douglas Luiz who has most stood out. Only two other top-flight midfielders – James Maddison and Bruno Fernandes – have scored and assisted more this past calendar year.
20 – Aston Villa had 20 more shots than Man City in their win last night (22 for, two against); the most that a Pep Guardiola team have been out-shot by in a match in the big-five European leagues (535th such game). Peppered. pic.twitter.com/CHoneC2fSV
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 7, 2023
Lastly, before we switch attention to the equally in form, top-of-the-table Arsenal, let’s cede to a fact that doesn’t amount to much, but will be repeatedly aired by commentators and pundits alike this weekend. The last team to beat Villa on home turf, all those matches ago, was the Gunners.
It was mid-February. Vieira was at Palace and Conte was at Spurs. It was a different time.
It was a period too when Arsenal believed they had overcome a seasonal blip by beating Villa, not realizing another, more seismic slump awaited them. With that occurring so late in the season it naturally led to people questioning the team’s mental resilience.
Nobody, however, is questioning that anymore, not after four late match-winners have been mined in 2023/24, either in crucial six-pointers or against sides in which they have unexpectedly struggled.
Yes to BTTS and Arsenal to win the second half offers up 29/10
The most dramatic example of this transpired at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday, with Declan Rice heading home deep, deep into added-on time and so now one of the most prominent narratives of this season is that Arsenal have as much steel as silk as they again embark on a title quest.
This may well be true, but focusing on their defensive parsimony to highlight this – as many are doing – feels somewhat disingenuous all the same. At this stage last term, Arsenal had conceded 11. There is currently 14 in their goals against column.
Regardless, there is more than enough silk to concentrate on. Bukayo Saka has again quickly reached double figures for goals and assists with so many of them pivotal. His last four have all got the Gunners off and running, alleviating pressure.
The brilliant winger is averaging 2.7 key passes per 90.
Back Saka to assist anytime at 9/2
Kai Havertz is also among the goals presently, with two in three, while Martin Odegaard is always an entrancing watch, but a word must go to Gabriel Jesus, a player who unfairly gets stick for not converting enough.
Not only did he score and assist on Tuesday but only three players have won possession more often in the attacking third this season. Arsenal are a better, more rounded attacking unit with him in it.
Furthermore, the visitors should be backed to come away with something this weekend, even if it will no doubt be the toughest of tests and a roller-coaster to boot. The last 0-0 between these sides was all the way back in 2012.
There is an intriguing subplot too in that Villa have scored ten times from set-pieces in 2023/24, the joint highest amount across Europe’s big five leagues. Arsenal meanwhile have scored the most corners.
This throws up a rare chance to back a centre-back to score at generous odds. Why not, because in truth anything could happen at Villa Park, and usually does when two such fantastically well put together sides meet.
