GERMANY will qualify for Euro 2020. That’s not the issue. In that sense, this week’s games – Wednesday’s friendly against Argentina in Dortmund and then the qualifier away to Estonia on Sunday – don’t much matter. But what is important is that the sense of drift is checked, that Jogi Low restores faith that this transition is moving towards something positive.
The qualification campaign had got off to a good start. There was the 3-2 victory away to the Netherlands, secured with a last-minute winner after a 2-0 lead had been squandered. There was an 8-0 demolition of Estonia, which may ultimately be pointless but helps raise morale nonetheless. It was possible to believe Germany, after their miserable World Cup, were moving in the right direction.
But the games a month ago were a serious setback. First, there was a 4-2 home defeat to the Netherlands in which Germany were made to look sluggish and old-fashioned. Then there was a thoroughly unconvincing 2-0 win away to Northern Ireland. Had that been drawn there might actually – unthinkably – have been a scrap for qualification. Part of the problem is that it’s not entirely clear what sort of side Low is trying to build.
"I know how to handle pressure."
Germany coach Joachim Low played down criticism directed at him by Jurgen Klinsmann… pic.twitter.com/c8xPZSX5wY
— Omnisport (@OmnisportNews) March 20, 2019
This has been a constant throughout a reign stretching back to 2006. At the 2010 World Cup when, although Germany lost to Spain in the semi-final, they were probably at their best under Low, Germany were a great counter-attacking side. The speed of their interchanges in picking off England and then Argentina in the last 16 and quarter-final was startling, and a huge amount of work had clearly been done in practising those transitions until they became almost automatic.
Germany troubled Spain more than anybody else in that tournament as well (more even than Switzerland, who beat them); losing 1-0 to a header from a corner was no disgrace. But Löw seemed uncomfortable with the designation of his side as one that counter-attacked. By Euro 2012, he was trying to play a more progressive style but as soon as he did that, he lost defensive solidity. The result was a series of unconvincing displays culminating in Italy’s Mario Balotelli-inspired victory in the semi-final.
Löw was pulled two ways, between what worked and what he felt his side should be. In Brazil in 2014 the dilemma was clear. Germany started off trying to play possession football and, other than against Portugal when Pepe was sent off early, they struggled. Ghana should have beaten them in the group stage – would have done had Jordan Ayew squared a simple ball to Asamoah Gyan with the score at 2-1 rather than shooting from a narrow-angle – and Algeria pushed them very close in the round of 16.
A worried Low went for his famous run along the beach in Rio. When he got back, he had decided to go back to basics: sit deep, play Miroslav Klose upfront and play on the break. The results was ground-out 1-0 wins in the quarter and final either side of the 7-1 against Brazil. The scoreline tends to mislead in that game: Germany were brilliant, but they were brilliant on the counter, ripping through Brazil again and again after regaining possession near halfway.
No Germany return for Mats Hummels anytime soon, says coach Joachim Löw.
Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/NrLclIJ5RS
— DW Sports (@dw_sports) October 8, 2019
Since then, Germany have never quite found the right balance again, tactical issues exacerbated by Low’s ham-fisted attempts to rejuvenate the squad. At the last World Cup, even after his younger players had performed so well in winning the 2017 Confederations Cup, he stuck with the old guard in Russia, and then brutally and needlessly culled Thomas Muller, Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng, not merely leaving them out but telling them their international career was over.
Again, the issue seems one of balance. Low has been loyal to Manuel Neuer to the point that Marc-Andre ter Stegen has started complaining publicly about his lack of opportunities, while Marco Reus has indicated he would like to see Hummels reinstated. Meanwhile, the persistent problem hasn’t gone away. Against the Netherlands, Germany sat deep and looked relatively threatening through the pace of Reus, Timo Werner and Serge Gnabry. The second half, though, as they tried to be less reactive, was a shambles, littered with individual errors.
And so it is that less than a year before a major tournament, Germany not merely don’t seem to know what they are but they don’t even seem to know what sort of team they’re trying to be. Almost a decade on Low is still wrestling with the same old issue.
