WITH Liverpool comfortably winning the league and Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich down – the latter two presently surviving merely as a technicality – we have been denied all manner of captivating drama this term.
At the bottom of the table a Shakespearean relegation battle usually nears its climax around about now, with malfunctioning teams suddenly discovering fight and fortitude. Subsequently, they begin to pick up points from the unlikeliest of places.
At the top meanwhile two teams typically duke it out for months on end before navigating one must-win after another. They stare each other down and as their excellence erodes and fatigue kicks in, every weekend they find a way.
Yet if missing out on these end-games feels unsatisfying – like ploughing through a box-set only to find the last couple of episodes missing – what we do have, by way of compensation, is one heck of a scrap for Champions League places, arguably the most enthralling we’ve had in years.
With an extra spot up for grabs this year, just six points separate Chelsea in fourth and Brighton in ninth while Nottingham Forest are by no means home and dry just yet, residing above them.
Naturally then, it is here where our attention turns.
We’ll soon get into why, but Chelsea, Brighton and Forest all to win is a terrific treble at 23/10
Let’s start with Forest, whose remarkable rise has shades of Leicester in 2016 about it. All campaign long Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have rope-a-doped opponents, relying on a magnificent back three of Sels in nets, and Murillo and Milenkovic ahead of the Belgian, to absorb all that comes their way.
Then arrives the sucker punch, usually courtesy of Morgan Gibbs-White orchestrating a pacy, fluid move finished off by Chris Wood.
What is interesting here though, as the Tricky Trees entertain Everton at the City Ground this Saturday, is that Wood is unavailable, his deputy Awoniyi too, which means for the second week running Santo must reconfigure his front three to consist of Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi and Elanga.
In the first-half v Villa last weekend, the trio struggled before notably improving after the break and this bodes well for a tight win over a Toffees collective that doesn’t give up goals easily.
It was Gibbs-White and Wood who scored at Goodison in a routine victory back in December but what a transformed group this weekend’s visitors now are, losing only two in 12 since David Moyes arrived.
What stands out though from all these fine results is how binary they are, almost entirely made up of ones and twos, for and against, and with Forest also stingy with the goals at times – seven of their 17 wins this season have been 1-0 – a low-scoring encounter in the Midlands would not surprise.
It’s a supposition supported by Everton having a striker who is beginning to stumble over his lines. When Beto first deputized for Calvert-Lewin the goals flowed, five in four. In his last three outings, the forward has failed to post even a solitary shot on target.
Back under 2.5 goals and Beto under 0.5 SOT at 39/20
If Forest are going to have to dig deep for their three points the same probably won’t be true of Brighton whose hosting of Leicester amounts to the ultimate home banker.
Another blank for the Foxes last Monday evening means they are the first team in football league history to lose eight on the bounce without scoring and so severe is their plight it’s hard to choose which is the best angle to approach it all.
Let’s go with this, because it fully illustrates what happens when a poor manager takes charge of a broken team. Since mid-December, Leicester have scored at a rate of a goal every six hours.
Of course, at the other end it’s a very different story and even if the Seagulls have had their wings clipped in recent weeks the likes of Mitoma and Minteh should have a field day here.
Over 2.5 goals for the hosts and no to BTTS is a double well worth considering at 13/5
Of the seven teams competing to join Liverpool and Arsenal in the Champions League next season, Fulham arguably have the toughest task in the days ahead, heading to the South Coast to face a relatively out-of-sorts Bournemouth side who are still perfectly capable of reigniting.
Newcastle too have a challenge awaiting, on paper at least, in facing down Manchester United at St James Park though it’s questionable how much of that estimation is down to memory playing tricks, recalling the titanic back-and-tos of yesteryear.
In reality, the Reds’ only two league wins in their last eight league showings have come against Ipswich and Leicester while their head-to-head record in this fixture mirrors that of their league form. They have beaten the Magpies just twice in their last eight encounters, one of them in the Carabou Cup.
The truth is, if St James Park is its usual thunderous self – and it will be – and if the players duly respond – which they will – then Ruben Amorim’s faltering side has enough neurosis to crumple. And that leads us to one of the most in-form players in the top-flight right now.
No, not him. Nor him, either. Foraging away gamely down the right Jacob Murphy may not get the acclaim of others but typically he comes into his own at this time of year, signing off each season with a flourish, usually after enduring injury in the preceding months.
This time out it’s the same, as four goal involvements in his last three appearances testifies.
Back Murphy to score or assist this Sunday at 29/20
A couple of hours before this week’s marquee match-up, Chelsea take on Ipswich and let’s keep this one nice and straightforward.
In the last knockings of 2024, the Tractor Boys beat the Blues in East Anglia, a highly-charged afternoon that will be looked back on fondly when Stoke and Wrexham come to town next season.
But it’s what happened next that piques our interest, a stat that reveals the full depth of Ipswich’s limitations.
In each of their subsequent 12 league matches, Kieran McKenna’s men have conceded at least one goal in the second half.
With eight of Chelsea’s last 12 league goals coming after the break this one is a no-brainer to add to any bet builder.
Back Chelsea to win the second half at 11/20
We end with Manchester City vs Crystal Palace and it’s easy to be seduced by the notion of Eze and Sarr breaking on a defence that has floundered and flapped when broken on all season.
It’s tempting too to back Jean-Philippe Mateta at 2/1 to score, the French striker bagging nine in his last 10.
The most pertinent detail to this lunchtime kick-off, however, is that the Eagles are without all three of their first-choice defenders
That brings Omar Marmoush into play, the January signing from Frankfurt who has manfully taken on the mantle of being Erling Haaland’s replacement with aplomb.
The Egyptian forward has scored three in his last four, taking on nine shots on target in that period.
Back Marmoush to have over 1.5 shots on target at 49/50
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